印度GDP将在2050年超过美国GDP? 美国可能阻止这种情况发生吗?

Prof. Prem Chander, Director - The Valley School (2016-present)

I am not sure whether any country can help or prevent another from growing its GDP. The growth of a country’s GDP is based on a multiple of factors some of which may be affected by American action or policies.

Predictions about what the world will be like in 2050 are great to make - they help us feel good, many of us will not be around to verify it (most probably the predictor too) and those of us who are will possibly not remember. Predictions of these nature are based on many assumptions and also based on incomplete models. They are good for drawing room debates but have very little value.

我不确定哪个国家能否帮助或阻止另一个国家的GDP增长。一个国家的GDP增长是基于多种因素的，其中一些因素可能会受到美国的行动或政策的影响。

关于2050年的预测能让我们感觉良好，我们中的许多人都不会去验证它(预测者也是)，也可能会把这忘了。这类预测是基于许多假设和不完整的计算模式，它们很适合在客厅里进行辩论，但没有什么价值。

Andrew Roberts, Studied Economics a long time ago, but still use money, banks and goods

Tl; Dr; Yes, the US could shutdown Indian growth, and there's a chance it will, intentionally, or as a consequence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

I’ve seen a few estimates of a GDP (PPP) somewhere between $44.1 tn and $85.97 tn, though in nominal (cash) terms the most optimistic forecast, I've seen, guesses at a $28 tn figure, by 2050, which is still assumed to be below that of , USA, and EU, in 2050 eg.

Population 1.7 bn

GDP (PPP) $44.1 tn

GDP (MER) $28.0 tn

GDP per capita (PPP) of $25,941

GDP per capita (MER) of $16,470

Consistent 7.9 % GDP (nominal) growth for 32 years

Consistent 4.9 % GDP (PPP) growth

From: The World in 2050 (PWC)

Or:

Population 1.63 bn

GDP (PPP) $85.97 tn

GDP per capita (PPP) $52,742

Consistent 6.4 % growth (PPP) for 40 years

From: India to be the world's largest economy by 2050 | ZDNet (2011)

I've also seen reports that suggest India will be as dry as Saudia Arabia, with just as much Agriculture, Industry, and employment, by 2050, eg.

Drought and Water Security in India

India is facing its worst water crisis in generations

There’s also been much speculation here, and elsewhere, for decades, as to whether India will achieve India Vision 2020, and become a developed entity by then, which as the date draws near, many a forecaster is now looking rather stupid.

Anyway given 15% of India's GDP is dependent on outsourcing and remitences from the US, or using patent protected US technologies to earn monies from others, the US could simply end India's participation in the H1B visa program, or introduce a technology embargo, as it already has with Iran, North Korea, Somalia, Eritrea, Ivory Coast, Syria, Cuba, … and shut down the Technology sector, and the likes of the US listed Tata Motors overnight, banking sanctions could similarly stop the purchase of dollar priced oil, more or less ending the use of mechanical transport, and plastics in the region, and the pum of ground water for agriculture, let alone the cheap dollars borrowed for years to plug an ever growing hole in the Union budget. Alternatively the US could impose the same joint venture restrictions on Indian entities wishing to trade in the US, as India imposes on the US, with half the equity, in say Tata, Mahindra, Infosys, … having to be surrendered, obviously with future profits, to the sons of US politician, to obtain a licence to trade. As all would kill India's growth, given the reports forecast future growth will come almost entirely from the service sector, rather than a water intensive agricultural, or rare earth and power scarce manufacturing. Though they don't appear to consider the impact of the fourth Industrial revolution on the service sector growth, with many low level service sector jobs likely to be automated in the next 30 something years, eliminating the need for a Mumbai call center, full of IIT PhD's, handling inquiries about when the drains will be cleared in Birmingham, or even the Indian MBA holders who drive the West's Taxs, and remit monies home ($72bn 2015), let alone how they'll become x10 call center operators in the period, especially given PWC reports India already captures 55% of Global outsourcing revenue, in an increasingly globally competitive market, see: The Growth of Outsourcing in India - Business Opportunities in India.

不错，美国可能会让印度经济停止增长，而这有可能是有意为之，或者是第四次工业革命的结果。

我看到一些预测说到2050年印度GDP(购买力平价)将介于44.1万亿美元和85.97万亿美元之间。尽管是在名义GDP方面，我见过的最乐观的预测是，到2050年，印度GDP将达到28万亿美元，但仍低于、美国和欧盟。

到2050年：

人口：17亿

GDP(购买力平价)：44.1万亿美元

GDP(以市场汇率计算)：28万亿美元

人均GDP(购买力平价)：25941美元

人均GDP(以市场汇率计算)：16470美元

连续32年名义GDP增速：7.9%

连续GDP(购买力平价)增速：4.9%

来源：2050年的世界(普华永道)

或者:

人口：16.3亿

GDP(购买力平价)：85.97万亿美元

人均GDP(购买力平价)：52742美元

连续40年GDP(购买力平价)增速：6.4%

来源：印度到2050年成为世界最大经济体-至顶网 (2011)

我还看到有报告说，到2050年，印度将和沙特阿拉伯一样干燥，农业、工业和就业都将一样：

印度的干旱和水资源安全

印度正面临几代人以来最严重的水资源危机

几十年来，有很多人猜测印度是否会实现2020年的愿景，并在2020年之前成为一个发达经济体。随着日期的临近，许多预测者现在看起来相当愚蠢。

无论如何，鉴于印度GDP的15%依赖于外包和来自美国的汇款、或者使用美国专利保护技术赚别人的钱，美国可以轻松阻止印度的增长，通过终止印度参与H1B签证项目,或引入技术禁运,因为它对伊朗,朝鲜,索马里、厄立特里亚、科特迪瓦、叙利亚、古巴等国家也实施过，让科技行业歇业，比如在美国上市的塔塔汽车。银行业制裁同样可以阻止购买以美元计价的石油，或多或少终止机械运输和塑料在该地区的使用，终止为农业开采地下水，更不用说为填补国家预算日益扩大的缺口，多年来借入的廉价美元了。或者美国可以对希望在美国做生意的印度企业施加相同的合资企业限制比如一半股权，就像印度对美国施加的一样，比如塔塔、马恒达、印孚瑟斯…为了获得贸易许可证，印度不得不向美国政客的儿子们投降，这显然会带来未来的利润。鉴于上述报告预测，未来的增长将几乎完全来自服务业，而非水资源密集型的农业，或稀缺的稀土和电力制造业。尽管他们似乎不考虑第四次工业革命对服务业增长的影响，许多低水平服务行业工作可能会在未来30年实现自动化，不再需要孟买呼叫中心这样的机构，大量印度理工学院的博士在伯明翰处理下水道问题，甚至连印度MBA持有者也在西方国家开出租车，以及从国外汇钱回国(2015年720亿美元)。尤其是普华永道的报告显示，在全球竞争日益激烈的市场上，印度已经占据了全球外包收入的55%。