印度和中国，谁会是下一个超级大国

Who will be the next superpower - India or China?

下一个超级大国是哪个？印度还是中国？

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Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan, works at Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

Both India and China wish to be super power. China is now a $ 11 trillion economy where as India is $2.25 trillion economy. In the following paragraph I will compare India and China.

印度和中国都希望成为超级大国。中国是一个11万亿美元的经济体，而印度的经济体量是2.25万亿美元。在下面一段中，我将对比一下印度和中国。

1.Indian GDP at 7.6% on 2015 -16 is highest. Whereas China’s GDP at 6.9% is second. But the economy of China is four times higher.

2.As per RBI 22%, of India are living below line. They are living with less than Rs3000 per month. Nearly 10000 villages do not have electricity. The whole of India will be electrifued by the end of this financial year. India is also taking up the project of providing quality electricity. Entire population is provided bank accounts. During 2016-17 with an allocation of Rs 2000 crores, is providing LPG to 1.5 crores of households. This will be continued for the next two years to cover 5 crore households. Whereas China too has poverty, but the percentage is less. One in every ten is living in poverty in China. Nearly 82 million are living below poverty line. They are living with less than 2300 yuan ($ 370). Two hundred thousand Chinese do not have electricity. Six million Chinese do not have clean fuel to heat and cook . Three quarters of global poverty reduction between 1995 to 2013 occurred in China. 12.5 million were moved from poverty in 2013 in China.

3.In steel production China is first with 803.3 million tons ranks first and India 89.58 million tons as on 2015, is third. With 280 million tons of cement production India is second largest and China with 2500 million tons stands first. With refining capacity of 12.54 Mbd is ranked second and India with 4.1 Mbd is ranked 5. China is refining 12.5% of global requirement and India 4.5%. In electricity China with 5398 billion Kwh is first and India with 871 billion Kwh is fifth .

1。印度GDP在2015-16年为7.6%，是全球最高的。中国的GDP为6.9%，位居第二。但中国的经济体量是印度的四倍。

2。据印度央行的数据，22%的印度人民生活在贫困线以下。他们每月生活费不足3000卢比。近1万个村庄没有通电。到本财政年度末，印度将实现全境通电。印度也仍在努力进行高质量供电。所有人口将开立银行账户。2016年至2017年，拨款2000亿卢比向1.5亿家庭提供液化石油气。这将在未来两年继续下去，覆盖50亿家庭。中国也有贫困人口，但比例较低。在中国，十分之一的人生活在贫困之中。近8200万人生活在贫困线以下。他们的生活费不足2300元(370美元)。20万中国人没有电。600万中国人没有清洁燃料取暖和做饭。1995年至2013年，全球减贫四分之三发生在中国，2013年中国有1250万人摆脱了贫困。

3。在钢铁产量方面，中国以8.033亿吨的产量排名第一，印度以8958万吨排名第三。印度水泥产量为2.8亿吨，位居第二，中国水泥产量为25亿吨，位居第一。中国的炼油能力为12.54万桶/天，排名第二，印度4.1万桶/天排名第五。在电力方面，中国的发电量为53980亿千瓦时，印度为8710亿千瓦时，排名第五。

4.Both China and India are nuclear state and both are signatories to No First User of Nuclear bomb. China is ranked third militarily with a military personnel of 2,285,000 and reserve of 2,300,000, Aircraft of 2788, tanks 9150 and Subs 69. India is ranked fourth with military personnel of 1,321,000 and a reserve of 2,143,000, aircraft 1905, tanks 6464, Subs 15. China has ICBM but India is yet to produce one. Agni VI is in advanced stage of testing. India has Ballistic Missile Defence System. Only four countries US, Russia, Isreal and India has them. China is yet to develop one. Brahmos is another missile which do not have a deterrent or equalizer in China. India has two aircraft carriers whereas China has one.

5.Ten years before China was a two trillion US dollar economy. It has developed into the present eleven trillion economy. India too is 2.25 trillion dollars economy now and it's growth is fastest. India will take at least another eight years to reach 10 trillion dollar economy with a growth rate between 8 to 11% of GDP.

6.Chinese debt is huge. There is every possibility China will be trapped in debt. Now for every dollar of growth China has to incurr a debt of 6 dollars. The present debt is 245% of GDP which is disturbing. Indian debt is 61% of GDP which bis quite stable or safe.

7.At present China seem to be reaching fast the status of Super Power. But India is doing very well in all fundamentals . But to reach the Super Power status, if China because of its weak economic growth and huge debt get burst there is every possibility of China being derailed.

4。中国和印度都是有核国家，都是签署了不首先使用核武器的国家。中国军事排名第三，军事人员228.5万人，预备役23万人，飞机2788架，坦克9150辆，潜艇69艘。印度排名第四，军事人员132万人，储备214.3万人，1905架飞机，6464辆坦克，15艘潜艇。中国有洲际弹道导弹，但印度还没有。烈火6导弹处于测试的末期。印度有弹道导弹防御系统。只有美国、俄罗斯、以色列和印度这4个国家拥有这些系统。中国还没有研发成功。布拉莫斯导弹是又一个中国尚未拥有可威慑或可有效抗衡的武器。印度有两艘航空母舰，中国有一艘。

5。十年前，中国是一个2万亿美元的经济体。现在它已经发展到11万亿的规模。印度经济规模达到了2.25万亿美元，增长速度也是全球最快。如果GDP的增长率维持在8%到11%之间，印度至少还需要8年的时间才能达到10万亿美元的规模。

6。中国的债务是庞大的。中国极有可能陷入债务困境。现在，中国每增长1美元，就必须背负6美元的债务。目前的债务是GDP的245%，这令人不安。印度债务占GDP的61%，这是相当稳定和安全的。

7。目前，中国似乎正迅速接近超级大国的地位。但印度在所有基本面都做得很好。但在成为超级大国的路上，如果因为经济增长疲弱和巨额债务而崩溃，中国完全有可能脱轨。

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/46435.html 译者：Joyceliu

Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!

As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.

But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.

作为一名印度人，我对中国以及现代世界的标准非常关心。我一直在阅读印度和中国经济对比的故事。许多人预测，在不久的将来，这两个国家都将成为死对头，力争超过彼此。有人说，中国已经比印度领先了，因为它开放的时间较早，而印度较晚。许多人说，中国经济领先了许多年，印度要赶上中国需要很多年的努力。

但这取决于印度是否真的想赶上中国。

No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don't care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous. What matters is that every Indian gets to lead the life he/she wants, get to see the world, given freedom to pursue chosen opportunities and make their dreams come true etc. etc. And for that India will have to look inwards, and grow from within. Economic and de ocratic freedom should be available for all. There is no point in being a wealthy nation if wealth is unfairly concentrated in the hands of a few and many are left penniless. There is no point if a select few Indian individuals shine in the global stage while many other struggle to get opportunities and facilities to prove themselves.

And to India’s credit, it has not tried to compete with China or any other develo or developed nation. Sure, the Indian economy made a slow start. But it takes time for a flower to bloom and India’s economy is now picking up the pace and rea the benefits.

没有人能准确预测未来和未来的状况(除非你是诺查丹玛斯)。但作为一个印度人，我可以告诉你一件事。从长远来看，我真的不在乎中国是否领先印度。作为一个印度人，我只关注印度本身，希望找到让我的祖国成为人间天堂的方法。我们的政治家能够努力把印度变成一个对现在和未来几代人来说更好的地方。他们夜以继日不知疲倦地工作，以确保我们的公民有更好的治理、更多的机会和经济的自由。我们的邻国是否是超级大国并不重要。重要的是我们国家的公民能够幸福、健康、和平与繁荣。重要的是，每个印度人都能过上自己想要的生活，自由地追求自己选择的机会，实现自己的梦想等等。如果财富不公平地集中在少数人手中，而许多人身无分文，那么成为一个富裕国家毫无意义。如果只有少数印度人能在全球舞台上大放异彩，而其他许多人难以获得机会来证明自己，那就没有意义了。

值得赞扬的是，印度从未试图与中国、任何其他发展中国家或发达国家竞争。当然，印度经济起步缓慢。但鲜花盛开需要时间，印度经济现在正在加快步伐，并从中获益。

I have nothing personal against China or Chinese (unless they act as a hindrance to our progress). China, like India has a rich cultural history and there is a lot both nations can learn by co-operating with each other, rather than fighting each other. We have similar problems and can work mutually for eradicating them. I have deep respect for Chinese as they are a hard working people. Like Indians, they too have made their mark in other countries, especially South East Asia.

My knowledge of China’s economy is very limited, and further more, I am not an economist so I really cannot predict how China’s and India’s economy will shape in the future. But I can tell you this, both nations are mature and know better that they must not compete with each other, but rather compete with themselves and ensure peace, harmony and prosperity for their respective citizens.

Jai Hind !!

我对中国或中国人没有个人的反感(除非他们妨碍了我们的进步)。中国和印度一样，有着丰富的文化历史，两国可以通过相互合作而不是相互对抗来学习很多东西。我们有相似的问题，可以共同努力消除问题。我很尊敬中国人，因为他们是勤劳的民族。和印度人一样，他们也在其他国家，尤其是东南亚，留下了自己的印记。

我对中国经济的了解非常有限，而且我不是经济学家，所以我真的无法预测中国和印度的经济在未来会如何。但我可以告诉你们，这两个国家都是成熟的，更清楚地知道彼此不应该相互竞争，而应该跟自己竞争，确保各自国家公民的和平、和谐和繁荣。

印度必胜! !