Swamini Tatkare, studied at University of Mumbai
In numbers, trade deficit with China in early 2017 stood around $51 billion. Our bilateral trade is $71 billion. India already has initiated 140+ anti dum concerns against China. Still we can't boycott Chinese goods. Reasons being:
2017年初,印度对华贸易逆差达到510亿美元左右。我们的双边贸易额为710亿美元。印度已经对中国提出了140多个反倾销问题。我们仍然不能抵制中国商品。原因如下:
- both India and China are WTO member and such arbitrary boycott may result in sanctions. Protectionist policies will do more harm to India.
- Much of india’s exports to China are dispensable. Indian export to its neighbor comprises mostly raw materials viz cotton,iron, refined copper etc. China's needs can be contained by importing from any other country.
- But in reverse China's exports to India are indispensable. We import electronic equipment,machinery,organic chemicals, plastics, fertilisers, medical equipments. (It's not just Chinese phones and cheap Diwali lightings!) Which are mostly cheaper. Hence our merchandiser, industrialist prefer Chinese goods. India being a develo (meaning we're not rich) nation her industries need cheap imports from China.
- We should remember that China is manufacturing hub belongs to supply chain. Indian economy bypassed manufacturing phase and leaped directly to become leading service economy. We don't have the infrastructure required to have our own manufacturing base. Make in India, Start Ups may help in long run. But it's a long road. We can be optimistic. But boycotting Chinese goods isn't an option.
1.印度和中国都是WTO成员国,这种武断的抵制可能导致制裁。保护主义政策将对印度造成更大的伤害。
2.印度对中国的大部分出口都是可有可无的。印度对邻国的出口主要是原材料,如棉花、铁、精铜等。中国的需求可以通过从任何其他国家进口来满足。
3.但反过来,中国对印度的出口都是不可或缺的。我们进口电子设备、机械、有机化工、塑料、化肥、医疗设备。(不仅仅是中国的手机和便宜的迪瓦利灯泡!)大多商品都比较便宜。因此,我们的商人、实业家更喜欢中国货。印度是一个发展中(意味着我们并不富裕)的国家,她的工业需要从中国进口廉价产品。
4.我们应该记住,中国是身处供应链之中的制造业中心。印度经济跳过了制造阶段,直接跃升至服务经济。我们没有建立自己的制造基地所需的基础设施。印度制造,创业可能从长远来看,会有所帮助。但是路还很漫长。我们可以乐观。但不要抵制中国商品。
Karunendra Mishra, love to follow Indian Economy
Trade between China and India is about USD 70 billion. Trade deficit about USD 44 billion in favour of China. Both countries targeted to increase the trade to USD 100 billion by 2020.
Now, why India can not stop import of Chinese products?
First reason is that India and China are WTO members. They are bound by WTO rules. Each member have to grant MFN status to other member country. Due to this, India can not discriminate against China.
Second, India too exports about USD 16 billion products- iron ore, textile, auto components, fruits, vegetables etc. Move to close imports will attract the same treatment from China. This will also hurt the Indian economy.
Third, Large trade is one of prominent factor which normalised the relations between the two countries. Thus, this may also have negative implications on peace and security at Indo-China border.
中国和印度之间的贸易额约为700亿美元。印度对中国贸易逆差440亿美元。两国的目标都是到2020年将贸易额增加到1000亿美元。
现在,为什么印度不能停止进口中国产品呢?
第一个原因是印度和中国是WTO成员。它们受世贸组织规则的约束。每个成员国必须给予其他成员国最惠国地位。因此,印度不能歧视中国。
第二,印度也出口大约160亿美元的产品,如铁矿石、纺织品、汽车零部件、水果、蔬菜等。这也将损害印度经济。
第三,大规模贸易是两国关系正常化的显著因素之一。因此,这也可能对印中边境的和平与安全产生负面影响。
Fourth, China is capital surplus nation and India is capital deficit nation with heavy need of investment. In this China can play a complementary role. It has already establised Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and New Development Bank(NDB) to finance the infrastructure projects in Asia.
Most importantly, we are living in time of globalisation. Every country is interdependent on economies of other countries. We can not risk to deteriorate the trade relations with second largest economy of the world. Rather we should use this platform to resolve the border disputes with China.
第四,中国是资本盈余国家,印度是资本赤字国家,投资需求很大。在这一点上,中国可以发挥补充作用。中国已经成立了亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)和新开发银行(NDB),为亚洲的基础设施项目提供资金。
最重要的是,我们生活在全球化的时代。每个国家都依存于其他国家的经济。我们不能冒着风险恶化与世界第二大经济体贸易关系。我们应该利用这个平台来解决与中国的边界争端。
Rishi Parashar, PUTIN'er' MODI'fied' MERKEL'ed'.
There is no point in doing that because by doing this
India will DIG IT’s OWN GRAVE .
这样做毫无意义,因为这样做
印度就是自掘坟墓。
Ved Prakash Vats, A persistent observer of India's foreign policy
I think India and China are like Tom and Jerry ,they may fight over various issues but when it comes to the real deal they do it in a matured way.
If we put a halt to trade with China ,the economy will be severely hit by the quality and price of goods in the market.
Chinese investment in roads, railways and ship-building are a major boost for the Indian economy and infrastructure which will be taken back in case of a strained relationship.
So on all the fronts a healthy neighbour like China is a must and we have the privilege of having one so better not strain it rather we should look at it’s positive side.
我认为印度和中国就像汤姆和杰瑞一样,他们也许会为各种各样的问题而争吵,但是说到真正的交易,他们就表现得很成熟。
如果我们停止与中国的贸易,经济将受到商品质量和价格的严重打击。
中国在公路、铁路和造船方面的投资是印度经济和基础设施的一大推动力,一旦两国关系紧张,中国将收回这些投资。
因此,在所有方面,像中国这样强健的邻国是必须的,我们有幸拥有一个更好的邻国,应该看到其积极的一面。
However it’s not that the losses are unilateral, the Chinese too will loose an emerging market like India where cost of manufacturing is less and demand is soaring like anything. Perhaps it’s the decade of India when every country in the world has it’s eyes transfixed to the Indian economy in hope that they will get a chance to trade with this diverse demographically young country.
China has already recognised this fact and is evident in their trade policy towards India. Giant Chinese mobile manufacturers have moved their units across the length of India to benefit from the highly demanding market.
So it’s rather beneficial for both the giants to maintain a healthy trade relations kee apart their border tensions so that Asia may prove that it’s her century.
然而,这并不是说损失只是单方面的,中国也会失去一个像印度这样的新兴市场,印度的制造成本更低,需求一路飙升。也许这是印度的十年,世界上每个国家都目不转睛地紧盯印度经济,希望有机会与这个人口结构多样的年轻国家进行贸易。
中国已经认识到这个事实,而且在对印度的贸易政策中也是显而易见的。为了从高需求市场中获益,中国大型移动制造商已将其业务迁往印度全境。
因此,保持健康的贸易关系,控制边境紧张局势,让亚洲证明这是属于她的世纪,这对这两个大国来说都是相当有益的。
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