印度的未来有没有可能比中国强

Is there a chance that India will get a better future than China?

印度的未来有没有可能比中国强？

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QUORA网站读者评论：

Fang Deng

I would say that China has better future.

我会说中国有更好的未来。

Personally, I think countries can choose whatever political/social system they desire, as long as they are happy with their choice. There shouldn’t be this constant competition. China just chose its own without attempting to compete with anyone. India, in my opinion, should settle whatever it chose and accept the outcomes.

Historically, China and India, the two oldest civilizations were exsting side by side without competing. I think I am comfortable with that tradition.

就我个人而言，我认为国家可以选择他们想要的任何政治/社会制度，只要他们对自己的选择感到满意就行。不应该有这种持续的竞争。中国只是选择了适合自己的，没有和任何人竞争的打算。在我看来，印度应该解决它自己选择的任何问题，并接受结果。

历史上，中国和印度这两个最古老的文明长期共存，没有竞争。我想我对这个传统很满意。

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/46692.html 译者：Joyceliu

Niraj Kumar, lived in India

The future of a country is closely linked with their economy. The USA is the superpower at the moment and they are the strongest economy in the world, holding free trade with many countries, and the same could be said for the British Empire, which was the dominant power in the world in the 18th and 19th centuries.

China is a huge economy already, and they have sustained incredible GDP growth for decades [which is remarkable due to the large population and size of the nation], and reality is that these people have worked very hard since 1978 to achieve this

The main source of their potential is the fact that they are already a huge economy, yet still low per capita income, and this means that more development needs to happen and will happen due to the conversion of China towards a service and consumption based economy [huge investment in R&D by China and increase in tech services].

一个国家的前途与经济息息相关。美国是目前的超级大国，是世界上最强大的经济体，与许多国家保持着自由贸易，而大英帝国也曾如此，在18、19世纪是世界的主导力量。

中国已经是一个庞大的经济体，而且几十年来一直保持着令人难以置信的国内生产总值增长(由于中国庞大的人口和规模，这一增长是显著的)，而事实是，这些人自1978年以来一直非常努力地实现这一目标。

他们的潜力主要源于他们已经成为巨大的经济体,但人均收入仍较低,这意味着他们需要更进一步的发展，这种发展必须源自中国经济转向以服务和消费为基础的经济体(对投资研发和技术服务进行大量投资)。

However, they have some huge problems to their growth such as the ageing population which they have seen from the one child policy, and also the fact that they can not sustain export related growth due to the decline of growth in the global markets, and also they have a huge problem of debt and credit held by state-owned enterprises due to decades of spending fueled growth, and this spending has built up to cause a debt catastrophe in the making, if it is not handled properly.

In order to counteract this, China needs heavy reforms within the next decade, which are taking place in the current and next 5 year plan. However, they come at a cost of lower GDP growth in the meantime, and also for the future. This is similar to the Japan or the Korea model of growth to some extent, where rapid development of the economy initially led to high growth and fuelled momentum for the future developments, as the growth rate dwindled over time.

然而,他们有巨大的问题，如独生子女政策导致的人口老龄化增长,还有因为全球市场增长的下降导致无力维系出口规模,另外他们还有一个巨大的问题，由于过去几十年的消费推动增长导致国有企业的负债和信贷问题,如果不妥善处理，这个问题已经积累到将导致债务危机的高度。

为了解决这个问题，中国需要在未来10年内进行重大改革，这些改革正在当前和未来的5年计划中实施。然而，与此同时，它们的代价是国内生产总值增长放缓，而且是为了未来。这在某种程度上类似于日本或韩国的增长模式，经济的快速发展最初导致高增长，并为未来的发展提供动力，增长率随着时间推移而下降。

At the moment, China is at the 1985–90 [end of red points and start of blue dots] point on the above graph, their growth has peaked, and will remain over 5% for some years to come, and then will slow to a crawl in the coming decades. Currently South Korea’s GDP growth is at 0.8%, so we can say that the Chinese economy will be nearing that stage around 2050, and by then China will have reached a juggernaut-like GDP of around $50 - 60 trillion. This ties in with the latest PWC estimations of China’s GDP PPP at $61 trillion by 2050 [note that $61 trillion PPP will be nearer $50 trillion in real terms].

Now, India is far behind the Chinese on that matter, as we have an economy of about $2.3 trillion, compared to $11.4 trillion for China [21% of the size]. This means that we would have to sustain a GDP growth of 3% higher than China for 55 years [or 4% for 38 years] to catch up in terms of pure size. This is definately possible, and if any nation were to do it, it has to be India, the only nation which comes close in terms of population, geopolitical stance, and also in not having used low hanging fruit.

目前，中国处于1985-90年(红点结束，蓝点开始)，经济增长已经见顶，未来几年仍将保持在5%以上，未来几十年将缓慢爬升。目前韩国的GDP增长率是0.8%，所以我们可以说，中国经济在2050年左右将接近这个阶段，到那时，中国的GDP将达到50 - 60万亿美元左右，成为世界主宰力量。这与普华永道最新估算的2050年中国购买力平价达到61万亿美元(请注意，按实际价值计算，61万亿美元的购买力平价将接近50万亿美元)相吻合。

现在，印度在这个问题上远远落后于中国，因为我们的经济规模约为2.3万亿美元，而中国的经济规模为11.4万亿美元(是中国规模的21%)。这意味着，我们必须在55年(若增长速度达到4%，只需38年)的时间里保持比中国高出3%的GDP增长，才能在规模上赶上中国。这是完全有可能的，如果有哪个国家能做到，那一定是印度。印度是唯一一个在人口、地缘政治立场上接近中国的国家，而且也没有唾手可得的成果。

Infrastructure deficit, access to healthcare and education,and bureaucratic corruption, amongst other issues, are huge problems that India will need to fully resolve before such a “catch-up” can happen, but these problems have been solved by many nations, so they can be done, and their methods can be studied and perhaps even re-used. The main thing that will lead India past China is the much larger population and younger population. India will have 300 million more people by 2050.

At the moment, India is at the same stage that China was in 2005–6, and they have shown huge growth from their to now [the 5-fold GDP growth we see today], but by then most of the Chinese advantages had been used up, and now they are facing the reform problems that they are. India has yet to do many real reforms, and so our period of high growth, with good governance, can start soon. At the very least, India should be able to maintain the 7–9% growth rate, and whilst China is at 4–6%, we see the 3% gap maintained, so over time India will catch up. By 2060, at 5% growth India’s GDP will be at $20 trillion, and at 9% growth India will be at $99 trillion. This is the bull and bear case of course, but realistically what will happen is that the Indian growth will be somewhere in the middle, and I think that a growth rate of 7% is sustainable, at least for the 2–3 decades coming, and with a growing and working age population, we could be looking at around a $30–35 trillion Indian economy by 2050, which will outgrow China and overtake by 2065–70, at which point China will have the higher GDP per capita due to population being 1.1 billion as opposed to 1.6 for India, but India will be the main power.

基础设施赤字、医疗和教育,以及官僚腐败,和其他问题一样,都是巨大的问题,印度需要在赶超钱完全解决这些问题,但许多国家已经解决了这些问题,所以这些问题是可以解决的。印度超越中国的主要原因是人口更多、更年轻。到2050年，印度的人口将增加3亿。

目前,印度处在和2005-2006年的中国同一个阶段,他们展现了巨大的增长(我们今天所看到的GDP增长5倍),但那时候中国优势就已经用完了,现在他们面临着改革问题。印度还需要进行许多真正的改革，因此我们的高增长、良好治理的时期可以很快开始。至少，印度应该能够保持7-9%的增长率，而中国是4-6%，我们保持3%的差距不变，所以随着时间的推移，印度将迎头赶上。到2060年，若以5%的增长率，印度的GDP将达到20万亿美元，弱以9%的增长率，印度将达到99万亿美元。但实际上会发生什么,印度的增长率将处于中位,我认为7%的增长率是可持续的,至少在未来的20-30年,伴随着越来越多的人口和越来越多的劳动力的出现,我们可以预见2050年印度经济达到30-35万亿，增长速度超过中国，到2065-2070年超过中国，到那时中国因为人口为11亿，对比印度的16亿人口，中国的人均GDP会更高，但印度将成为世界大国