为何印度小城市的病例激增令人更加担忧

Why rise in Covid cases in smaller cities is a big worry

为何小城市的病例激增令人更加担忧？

While the overwhelming majority of active Covid cases in states like Maharashtra, West Bengal and Gujarat are concentrated in the big cities, in UP, Bihar, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, the biggest cities account for between 16% and 28% of active cases. This is a worry because in every state the concentration of health personnel and infrastructure is in the large urban centres.

在马哈拉施特拉邦、西孟加拉邦和古吉拉特邦等邦，绝大多数活跃病例集中在大城市，但在北方邦、比哈尔邦、奥里萨邦和安得拉邦，大城市的活跃病例占比在16%到28%之间。这令人担忧，因为每个邦的医务人员和医疗设施都集中在大城市。

In the case of West Bengal, 72.7% of active cases are concentrated in the Greater Kolkata region including North and South 24 Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly. Seven out of 19 government medical colleges are located in Kolkata. Similarly, in Maharashtra, 65.4% of the cases are in Greater Mumbai (including Thane), Pune and Nagpur and in Gujarat almost 67% of the cases are in Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot.

就西孟加拉邦而言，72.7%的活跃性病例集中在大加尔各答地区，包括North 24 Parganas、South 24 Parganas、Howrah和Hooghly。19所公立医学院附属医院中有7所位于加尔各答。同样，在马哈拉施特拉邦，65.4%的病例集中在大孟买地区(包括塔那)、普纳和那格浦尔，在古吉拉特邦，几乎67%的病例集中在艾哈迈达巴德-甘迪纳格尔、苏拉特、瓦多达拉和拉杰科特。

It is a well-established fact that 80% of doctors and 60% of hospitals in India are concentrated in urban areas and within them among the bigger cities. In these states, therefore, the concentration of cases mirrors the concentration of resources to deal with them. In contrast, in UP, only 27% of active cases are located in big cities of Lucknow, Kanpur, Ghaziabad-Noida, Agra and Meerut. The rest are scattered across the state which could pose a challenge in ensuring access to health services for those affected.

众所周知，印度80%的医生和60%的医院都集中在城市，而且大部分在大城市。因此，在这些邦，病例的集中分布反映了处理病例的资源也集中在这些地区。相比之下，在北方邦，只有27%的活跃性病例位于勒克瑙、坎普尔、加兹亚巴德-诺伊达、阿格拉和密鲁特等大城市，其余的则分布在各地，这可能对确保患者获得治疗构成挑战。

In Bihar, just 27.8% of active cases are in Patna, Gaya, Bhagalpur and Muzaffarpur. This pattern could well be because many of the trains of transmission in these states have originated from migrant workers returning to villages from the metropolises.

在比哈尔邦，只有27.8%的活跃病例分布在巴特那、加亚、巴格尔普尔和穆扎法尔普尔。这种分布比例很可能是因为由坐火车从大城市返回农村的农民工造成的。

Even at the state-wide level, Bihar has among the lowest availability of beds per active case and in the smaller towns and villages the situation would be worse. Andhra Pradesh seems to be in the same situation with low bed availability per active case and just 16% of active cases in Visakhapatnam and Vijaywada. In Odisha, 25% of active cases are in Ganjam and just 21% in Khorda, the district that includes Bhubaneshwar, or 6% in Cuttack. With state-wide availability of beds per active case at a lowly 2, this is a real challenge. In Rajasthan too, just about a third of active cases are in Jaipur, Jodhpur and Kota, but the state’s beds per active case count is much better at 7. The actual bed availability for the remaining two-thirds of cases could, however, be much lower.

在全国范围内，比哈尔邦也是床位利用率最低的地区之一，在较小的城镇和村庄，情况更糟。安得拉邦的情况也差不多，活跃病例的可用床位很少，在维萨卡帕特南和维杰瓦达只有16%活跃病例有床位。在奥里萨邦，25%的活跃病例分布在甘贾姆，而包括布巴内什瓦尔在内的霍达地区仅占21%，克塔克地区占6%。在该邦内，每个活动病例的可用床位仅为2，这是一个真正的挑战。在拉贾斯坦邦，也只有大约三分之一的活跃病例集中在斋浦尔、焦特布尔和科塔，但拉贾斯坦邦每个活跃病例的可用床位数要高得多，为7。然而，剩下三分之二的病人实际可用的床位可能要少得多。

In Kerala and Himachal too, cases are spread out across districts, but bed availability per active cases is much higher for these states, 8.6 and 13.9 beds per active case, respectively. The challenge in dealing with a scenario where active cases are not concentrated in a few big cities would be in ensuring that those requiring hospitalisation have access to quality health services.

在喀拉拉邦和喜马偕尔邦，病例分布在各个地区，但每个活跃病例的可用床位要高得多，分别为8.6和13.9个床位。在处理活跃病例不集中在少数大城市的情况时，挑战在于确保需要住院的患者能够获得高质量的医疗服务。

以下是印度时报读者的评论：

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/50506.html 译者：Jessica.Wu

Sunil Mehta

Since the govt has done virtually nothing to prevent the spread of Covid, what Rahul predicted on 17-Jul-2020 has come true i.e. there will be more than 20 lakh cases by 10-Aug-2020.

由于印度政府几乎没有采取任何措施来控制疫情的蔓延，拉胡尔在2020年7月17日的预测成真了，到2020年8月10日，印度累计确诊病例将超过200万例。

Partha Sen

We are not maintaining social distancing, not maintaining proper hygiene, and in general not disciplined enough except a small portion of the population and that is why corona affected cases are on the rise. Government can never be effective if citizens are not serious and matured

我们没有保持社会距离，不讲卫生，大部分人都不自律，所以确诊病例还在上升。如果公民不认真对待，政府做什么都没用

Balaji Ramana

For a long time field level medical staff have been warning about community transmission, but till date the official scientific establishment is denying the same. How can you resolve a problem when you don't even admit that it is there.

早就出现社区传播了，医务人员早就发出警告了，但到目前为止，官方机构一直在否认这一点。不承认问题的存在，怎么能解决问题呢?

amber tyagi

So bhoomi pujan was absolutely required ????

所以建罗摩神庙势在必行？

Justice Freedom Equality

Bhumi Puja was final straw that broke the back of camal. India is now number one in COVID daily cases. Leaving USA miles behind. Thanks to Idiot Modi. I am afraid within one week daily cases will cross one lac.

罗摩神庙是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。目前印度的单日新增病是全球最高的，把美国甩得老远了。这是拜白痴莫迪所赐。一周之后，印度单日新增恐怕会达到10万例。

Reasonable Indian

This underscores the worsening situation in low income states. The calamity is nationwide and no one will be spared.

这凸显了低收入国家的形势日益恶化。这场灾难是全国性的，没有人能幸免。

Sebastian John

After the foolish 21 day lockdown promising to wipe out Coronavirus from India in 21 days

莫迪承诺在21天封锁期内消灭新冠病毒，太愚蠢了!

Bharat Chhabra

how controlled corona so quickly , with only handful of mortality. ??

Which magic wand does it have that even US and best of the countries don't have . ??

是如何以如此快的速度控制住了疫情，而且死亡人数还这么少??

手上有什么魔杖，即使是最先进的国家美国也没有??

Salman Shah

No need to worry about Covid now. Probability of death is very low and with effective drugs in place, doctors are able to save most of the critical patients. Also, the vaccine will be available very soon. Most people recover just fine from Covid.

不用担心新冠病毒了，死亡率非常低，而且有了有效的药物，医生能够救治大多数危重病人。而且，新冠疫苗很快就会上市。大多数患者都恢复得很好。

Ravindra Munvar

I don't understand why people are blaming the government. It is we who are the cause of the spread of this pandemic. We did not follow the lock down strictly resulting in the spread and now we are blaming the government. The government implemented a lockdown early knowing well that if this spreads, then it will be very difficult to contain and also we don't have all the required facilities. So stop blaming the government and own up the responsibility to stop the spread of this virus. Even in , they did stop it once, but again it is on the rise - so that should give you the picture - government can only do as much, but if we people don't co-operate, everything will fall flat.

我不明白为什么人们要责怪印度政府，是我们自己造成了疫情的蔓延。我们没有严格遵守封城规定，导致疫情蔓延，现在我们却归咎于政府。政府很早就实施了封锁，因为他们很清楚，如果疫情扩散，就很难控制，而且我们也没有所需的设施。所以不要再指责政府了，要勇于承担责任，阻止病毒的传播。即便是在，他们曾一度控制住了疫情，但病例又在上升了。印度政府能做的就那么多，但如果人们不合作，一切都是徒劳。

Vishal Kumar

There is no health service in rural India..all big hospitals are in urban only..

印度农村没有医疗服务，大医院都在城里

Vj Bharti

The decease is called Pandemic when at least 20% population got affected in India case it is 20% of 135 cr no escape from that.......!!

当印度至少有20%的人口感染时，才能称之为大流行。

Jagdip Vaishnav

It is virus spread ,it shall cover up entire country

这种病毒会席卷印度全国各地的。

Venkat B

Bigger cities even being equipped with good medical facilities are falling short to treat covid, it will be a bigger worry in smaller cities

即使拥有良好医疗设施的大城市也无法收治所有患者，小城市就更糟了