为什么日本要在印度基础设施项目投入这么多资金

Why is Japan pum so much money into India for its infrastructure projects?

为什么日本要在印度基础设施项目投入这么多资金?

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以下是Quora读者的评论：

Sunny Mewati, Predictably Irrational

Japan's investment spree in India should be seen within the broader context of what Japan did and still does for east Asia.

Firstly, Japan has always been a resource and labor starved but capital rich country. For example, Japanese firms alone have a cash stockpile of over $2 trillion. It has been a long standing Japanese economic policy to invest this capital in emerging economies to generate businesses for Japanese firms. Japan is a highly developed (low returns to capital) but aging country (labor shortage). It's economy has been stagnant for over two decades but if you visit Japan, it does not seem if the country has been in recession for so long. Unemployment is low and living standards are high. It is because Japanese capital has one of the best returns of any other country through Japan's aggressive investments in high risk but high return emerging markets. During the 1960's, they invested heavily on Korea and Taiwan and Hong Kong through both direct investment and institutionalized lending through the Asian Development Bank. In the 1980's and 90's, Japan along with Taiwan led foreign investment into China with a lot of resource for infrastructure deals.

Furthermore, Japan's international influence has taken a hit especially in Africa and East Asia with the emergence of China. China executed to perfection, the textbook on gaining economic influence written by Japan. It aggressively invested Africa and has largely been successful in filling Japan's shoes in east Asia. It established parallel financial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Chinese firms have regularly outmaneuvered their Japanese counterparts in east Asia in bagging infrastructure contracts such as building rail projects in Thailand and Indonesia. In business jargon, China has disrupted Japan's otherwise perfect business model of gaining high returns on capital abroad to maintain the domestic economy.

日本在印度的投资热潮应该放在更大的背景下审视，即日本过去和现在对东亚的贡献。

首先，日本一直是一个资源和劳动力匮乏但资本富裕的国家。例如，仅日本企业就拥有超过2万亿美元的现金储备。长期以来，日本的经济政策是将这些资金投资于新兴经济体，为日本企业创造商机。日本是一个高度发达(资本回报率低)但老龄化(劳动力短缺)的国家。日本的经济已经停滞了20多年，但如果你去日本，你会发现这个国家似乎并未衰退：民众失业率低，生活水平高。这是因为，通过日本在高风险高回报的新兴市场大举投资，日本资本的回报率是其他所有国家中最高的。20世纪60年代，它们通过直接投资和亚洲开发银行的贷款，在韩国、台湾和香港大举投资。在上世纪80年代和90年代，日本和台湾地区带领投资进入中国大陆，为基础设施的修建提供了大量资金。

此外，随着中国的崛起，日本的国际影响力受到了冲击，特别是在非洲和东亚。中国将日本关于获得经济影响力的教科书执行得很完美。中国在非洲大举投资，并在很大程度上成功地取代了日本在东亚的地位。中国还建立了亚洲基础设施投资银行等平行金融机构。在投标泰国和印尼铁路项目等基础设施合同方面，中国企业经常胜过日本企业。用商业术语来说，中国打乱了日本原本完美的商业模式，从海外获得高回报以维持国内经济。

Against this backdrop, India is the best destination. The only country where Japan still has an upper hand and which has a desire for, but also a near visceral aversion to Chinese investments. Chinese investments are viewed with an undercurrent of hostility by India. The Chinese are not very keen on investing in India either. 'Hot money flows' from western nations that fueled most of India's growth for the past 15 years are slowly drying up. Multilateral financing has a lot of strings attached. For India, the easiest source of capital is Japan, a country viewed favorably by most Indians. A large scale investment from China will always raise the banter of 'compromising national security', concessions granted to say the United States or Europe would likely be dubbed 'exploitation' because of our socialist past but Japan is different. Because it is perceived as an old friend and ally, the government faces the least political resistance in granting Japan concessions in return for capital and expertise.

Last, interest on Japanese soft loans is very low, in the range of 0.25% that even 30% offset for Japanese firms does not equal the return of simple American T-bills. There is a clear geopolitical dimension to Japan's investment as well but unlike most commentators, I don't think it has anything to do with the 'dominant narrative' of containing China. Japan and India are natural allies in that India's need for military modernization is aligned with Shinzo Abe's plan to revive Japanese economy with arms exports. Even with Narendra Modi's defense indegenization push, India will remain a major importer of weapons for a long time and hence a large prospective market for Japanese defense exports.

In conclusion, Japan's investment in India is a function of push and pull. Japan is facing stiff competition from Chinese capital in East Asia and Africa but not in India enhancing India's attractiveness. For India, conventional sources of capital are slowly drying up.

在这种背景下，印度是最好的目的地，印度视唯一一个日本仍占优势的国家，对中国投资既有渴望，也有发自内心的厌恶。印度对中国的投资抱有一种潜在的敌意。中国人也不是很热衷于在印度投资。来自西方国家的热钱在过去15年里推动了印度的大部分增长，如今这些热钱正在慢慢枯竭。多边融资有很多附加条件。对印度来说，最便利的资金来源是日本，大多数印度人都看好这个国家。来自中国的大规模投资总是会引发“国家安全被迫妥协”的玩笑，但日本不同。由于印度政府被视为日本的老朋友和盟友，因此在给予日本让步以换取资本和技术方面，印度政府面临的政治阻力最小。

最后，日本软贷款的利息低至0.25%。日本的投资也有明显的地缘政治因素，但与大多数评论人士不同的是，我不认为这与遏制中国的“话语权”有任何关系。日本和印度是天然的盟友，因为印度对军事现代化的需求与安倍晋三通过武器出口重振日本经济的计划是一致的。即使莫迪推动国防国产化，印度在很长一段时间内仍将是武器的主要进口国，因此也是日本国防出口的一个巨大的潜在市场。

综上所述，日本对印度的投资是一种先给予后获取的策略。日本在东亚和非洲面临来自中国资本的激烈竞争，但在印度却没有，这增强了印度对日本的吸引力。对印度来说，传统的资本来源正在慢慢枯竭。

Balaji Viswanathan, follows government policies closely.

When I went to buy my first car, the dealer gave me a 0% loan for 6 years. That ensured that he got my business that day [selling the car] and for a few years to come [maintenance, supplies] and even the potential to sell the next car a few years down the road.

Seller financing is a prominent business strategy where the seller closes the deal by offering sweet financing. A lot of major businesses do that. And so do many countries. Japan does that, China does that and so does India on a smaller scale [prompting questions like why India provides aid to Nepal etc].

In India, Japan and China are fighting to dominate the world's hottest rail market. Japan entered the market with a easy financing deal and pocketed the deal. In this, it was not really different from my car dealer who gave a 0% loan to me to pocket business from a rival.

To build the bullet train, you need a lot of things. Some of them will be made in India and the rest will be made in Japan. In the contract, Japan has said that 30% of the things has to be bought from Japan. There will be a large number of exports from Japan to build the bullet train. That is a lot of jobs. Once the line is built, there will be maintenance and adding new train carriages. More exports and more jobs.

当我购买第一辆车时，经销商给了我一笔6年零息贷款。这确保了他在那天(卖掉汽车)做成我的生意，让我在接下来的几年里上门(维修、物资)，甚至几年后还有可能卖给我第二辆车。

卖方融资是一种重要的商业策略，卖方通过提供有甜头的融资来完成交易。很多大型企业都是这样做的。许多国家也是如此。日本是这样做的，中国是这样做的，印度也是这样做的，只是规模较小(这就带来了印度为什么要向尼泊尔提供援助等问题)。

在印度，日本和中国正在争夺世界上最热门的铁路市场的霸主地位。日本以一项简单的融资协议进入印度市场，并从中获利。在这一点上，这与我的汽车经销商没有什么不同，他为我提供了0%的贷款，让我从竞争对手的口袋里抢生意。

要建造高铁，你需要很多东西。其中一些将在印度制造，其余的将在日本制造。在合同中，日本要求30%的物资必须从日本购买。建造高铁就会需要大量进口的日本产品。一旦这条线路建成，将进行维护并增构新的列车车厢。这会带来更多出口和更多就业机会。

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train is just a starting point. If this works, India will be building advanced trains all over the country. And trains are just one among dozens of new things India will make - new homes, new cities, new factories. Trillions of dollars are at stake here. Like a Venture Capitalist, Japan is trying to enter the market early and capture it before others come in.

At the end of the day, it is business. Just as your shopkeeper provides you cheap loans to buy TV, phones and other appliances, countries provide you loans to buy their technology and products. Do you think the Audi dealer below is providing you charity by providing a 0% loan? No. Neither does Japan.

孟买-艾哈迈达巴德高铁只是一个起点。如果成功，印度将在全国各地建造高铁。而火车只是印度将创造的几十个新事物之一——新家园、新城市、新工厂。数万亿美元的资金正处于危险之中。就像一个风险投资家一样，日本试图进入这个市场，并在其他市场进入之前抢占先机。

这就是生意。就像老板向你提供低息贷款，让你购买电视、手机和其他家电一样，国家也向你提供贷款，让你购买他们的技术和产品。你认为奥迪经销商给你提供0%的贷款是在做慈善吗？当然不是。日本也不是。

Shrikant Umarye, General Manager

Japan is a de ocratic country like india.

it has also budhist culture - an import from india.

Japanese are hard worker and have an edge in electronics.

after second world war and hiroshima holocast they have progressed the hard way.

with no raw materials, they have streamlined their economy purely based on high technology.

japan is a country with high population of senior citizens- there is a shortage of young population in japan and govt supports senior citizens by free doles.

india is a country of 40% productive youth population with high unemployment rates- that can be productively utilised.

日本和印度一样都是民*国家。

日本也有佛教文化——从印度传入的。

日本人工作努力，在电子产品方面极具优势。

二战后，他们走过了艰难崎岖的道路。

在物资匮乏的情况下，他们完全依靠高科技来提升经济。

日本是一个老年人口众多的国家——日本的年轻人口十分短缺，政府通过免费补贴来赡养老年人。

印度是一个拥有40%富有生产力的青年人口和高失业率的国家——可以加以有效利用。

Aditya Iyer, Content Developer at Flinnt

India is at a very critical juncture right now. From the view point of our economy we are moving at real pace when we compare ourselves to China Or Japan or infact any other country in the world.

But wait a minute lets take a halt at this point. Now let me tell you India is a very large country. We have millions of people who are poor or probably dont have jobs. Apart from this we don’t have a great literacy rate.

Our Honorable Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi is trying to pull in huge MNC’s to come in and produce products here in India at subsidized rates. Now just imagine these companis coming to our country.

All these big companies have already made themselves huge manufacturing plants all around the world but here in India, the rates at which they will get labour and other support is way more cheaper as compared to other countries.

印度现在正处于一个非常关键的时刻。从我们的经济角度来看，与中国、日本或世界上任何国家相比，我们正在以实在的速度前进。

但是等一下，先暂停一下。现在我要告诉你，印度是一个非常大的国家。我们有数百万穷人或可能没有工作的人。除此之外，我们的识字率并不高。

我们尊敬的总理纳伦德拉·莫迪先生正试图吸引大型跨国公司进入印度，以补贴价格在印度生产商品。现在想象一下这些公司来到我们国家的情形。

所有这些大公司已经在世界各地建立了大型工厂，但在印度，他们获得劳动力和其他支持的成本要比其他国家低得多

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/50935.html 译者：Joyceliu

Infrastructure wise i wont say we lack behind, but probably we don’t have the capability to build all these things at our own.

India has a very bright future, when we look at our population we can see that we have the largest youth brigade in the word which is capable of taking this country to great heights.

Japan wants to invest in our country to draw the attention of each and every person residing in our country to their thinking and their methodologies. The technologies which they posses can be great help to our country as well.

They are sensing an opportunity which probably USA and Russia aren’t realizing. Various billionaire firms from Japan and China are betting big on India Companies.

The demand as far our market is concerned is very huge and if a company is successful in our country then there is no looking back.

Thus to capitalize on this fact Japan is pum in so much money into the Indian Economy.

就基础设施而言，我们不算落后，也许我们并没有能力自己建造这一切。

印度有一个非常光明的未来，看看我们的人口，可以看到我们拥有世界上最庞大的年轻人口，有能力把这个国家带到伟大的高度。

日本希望在我国投资，吸引我国每一个居民对其思想和方法的注意。他们所拥有的技术对我们国家也有很大的助益。

他们感觉到了一个机会，而这可能是美国和俄罗斯并没有意识到的。来自日本和中国的亿万富翁都在印度公司上下了大赌注。

就我们的市场而言，需求是非常巨大的，如果一家公司在我们国家取得成功，那么就没有后顾之忧。

因此，为了充分利用这一优势，日本正在向印度经济注入大量资金。

Abhishek Kshirsagar, former Summer Intern at Hindustan Unilever (2018)

A few reasons that I can think of:

Japanese economy is stagnating since 1990’s and that is not a good thing. To add to the problems, it shrank in 2015 (Why is Japan's economy shrinking? (Why is Japan's economy shrinking?)) and in not very good conditions since then.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised Japanese population that he’ll bring inflation back in Japan. And a very good option to do that is to boost the growth and print more money (and they are doing that too)
And how can they boost the growth? As the famous principle says, money attracts money. Or to say it simply, if you need returns, you should first invest. And what is a better destination to invest than a rapidly growing Indian Economy?
More to that, some of the clauses in this investment suggest that the machinery and other things required for the construction of these projects should be procured from the Japanese companies, thus hel them to grow.
Also, since the emergence of China, Japan has lost its influence in most of the African and a few Asian countries too. It is now fiercely competing with China to win India.

我能想到几个原因：

日本经济自20世纪90年代以来一直停滞不前，这不是一件好事。更糟糕的是，日本经济在2015年出现了萎缩(为什么日本经济会萎缩？)而且从那以后情况就不太好了。
日本首相安倍晋三向日本民众承诺将让通胀重返日本。那么不错的选择就是刺激经济增长，印更多的钞票(他们正是这么做的)
他们如何推动增长？正如这条名言所提到的，金钱吸引金钱。或者简单地说，如果你需要回报，你应该首先投资。还有什么比快速增长的印度经济更好的投资目的地呢？
更重要的是，这项投资的一些条款要求，建设这些项目所需的机械和其他物资必须从日本公司采购。
此外，自中国崛起以来，日本在大多数非洲国家和少数亚洲国家也失去了影响力。现在，日本正与中国激烈竞争，希望能赢得印度。

Vivek Chaudhary

Japan is seeking a place to invest From where they can get much profit.

Japan want to open Its manufacturing Units in India as their working Age population is decreasing dramatically in Japan So they do need to go to somewhere they get more profit and India is best place because labour cost in India is very cheap and also have Largest working age population.

Talking about Bullet trains,

According to IMF, Income per capita will be rise to about 3000USD by 2023(i.e. when Bullet will be operational) So, I think in 2023 3000INR will be not a huge amount of money for getting bullet experience and also feeling same as developed country do and also talking about external debt India is far better than other countries as it has only debt equal to 24% of it's GDP and also who repay the debt at all.

日本正在寻找一个可以获得巨大利润的投资地点。

日本希望在印度开设制造业，日本的劳动年龄人口正在急剧减少，所以确实需要开发一个回报更高的地方，而印度是最好的选择，因为印度的劳动力成本非常低廉，而且劳动年龄人口也最多。

说到高铁列车，据国际货币基金组织预测，到2023年，印度人均收入将上升到3000美元左右（高铁列车届时将投入使用），因此，我认为在2023年，3000卢比的高铁车票不再是高不可攀的奢侈品，而在外债方面，印度比其他国家好得多，印度债务只相当于其国内生产总值的24%。