印度新冠肺炎病例下降背后的奥秘

Masks, distancing, demography: The mystery behind India's declining Covid cases

戴口罩、保持社交距离、人口结构：印度新冠肺炎病例下降背后的奥秘

NEW DELHI: On September 16 last year, India reported a record 97,894 coronavirus cases. Nearly four-and-half months later, on February 2, the country registered 8,635 new cases.

新德里：去年9月16日，印度曾报告单日创纪录的97894例新增病例。近四个半月后，2月2日全国单日新增病例为8635例。

The drop in coronavirus numbers assumes significance as several countries across the world are experiencing a second and in some cases even third wave of Covid-19 virus.

新病例数量的下降具有重要意义，目前一些国家正在经历第二波疫情，有些国际甚至正在经历第三波。

"It's not that India is testing less or things are going underreported," Jishnu Das, a health economist at Georgetown University, was quoted in a report by NPR. "It's been rising, rising — and now suddenly, it's vanished! I mean, hospital ICU utilization has gone down. Every indicator says the numbers are down."

美国国家公共广播电台(NPR)在一篇报道中援引乔治敦大学卫生经济学家吉什努·达斯的话称，“这并不是因为印度的检测数量减少或少报。此前病例一直在上升，上升——现在突然没有上升了！医院加护病房的使用率下降了。每一个指标都表明病例在减少。”

Scientists around the world have proposed numerous theories to explain this unprecedented fall in Covid-19 cases in India. However, none has been able to give a definite answer. Experts said that without conclusive data, it was impossible to say why India's figures had fallen so dramatically.

世界各地的科学家提出了许多理论来解释印度新冠病例的空前下降。然而，没有人能给出一个明确的答案。专家表示，在没有结论性数据的情况下，无法说明印度的数据下降幅度为何这么大。

Surprisingly, the fall in the number of cases coincided with the festival season in October and November. In the national capital, where lakhs of protesting farmers are amassed at the borders, cases have been steadily falling.

令人惊讶的是，病例数量的下降正好赶上10月和11月的节日季。在首都德里，成千上万的抗议农民聚集，但确诊病例一直在稳步下降。

There have been several theories proposed to unravel this mysterious fall in the numbers.

有人提出了几种理论来解释这一神秘的下降：

Good practices

Awareness about practices such as washing hands and wearing masks in public places has been diligently spread across the country.

行为规范

在公共场所洗手和戴口罩等行为正在印度全国各地普及。

The climate

There is another theory which suggests that the hot and humid climate of the country proved to be a bad host for coronavirus, which requires low temperatures to thrive.

气候

还有一种理论认为，印度炎热潮湿的气候不利于新冠病毒存活，病毒需要低温才能繁殖。

Effective contact tracing

According to a survey conducted in the state of Punjab, it was found that 76% of the patients did not infect a single other person

有效的接触者追踪

根据在旁遮普邦进行的一项调查，发现76%的患者没有感染其他人。

Pre-exsting immunity

Indians are exposed to several diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, typhoid, hepatitis, cholera. Some experts speculate that exposure to these diseases in the past may have increased the immunity of the general population.

免疫能力

印度人易患多种疾病，如疟疾、登革热、伤寒、肝炎和霍乱。一些专家推测，过去患过这些疾病可能提高人群的免疫力。

Young demography

Only 6% of the country's population is older than 65; more than half of the population is below 25 years of age.

The virus is likely to have a less-lethal impact on the young population.

人口年轻

印度超过65岁的人口只占6%

一半以上的人口年龄在25岁以下。

这种病毒对年轻人的杀伤力可能较小。

印度时报读者的评论：译者：Jessica.Wu

Chaitanya Agarwal

It is timely and strict actions of the government to implement lockdowns and improvement of health care facilities. The other reason which looks to be a valid reason that people of India are hard-working and with strong immunity. During the worst stage of virus, there was a huge labour movement from one place to another, but due to their strong immunity power, the virus could not attack them.

印度政府及时采取了严格的封锁，改善卫生保健设施。还有一个原因，那就是印度人工作勤奋，有很强的免疫力。

在疫情最严重的时期，有很多工人流动，他们的免疫力很强，不会被感染

Nathan

There is no mystery. It is simply a function of the amount of Testing that is done, and also the accuracy of the statistics reported by the Government. The more the Testing that is done, the more the number of cases revealed.

没什么神秘的。

只是与检测数量以及政府报告的统计数据的准确性有关。

做的检测越多，病例就越多。

K M Rao

But the Australian Think Tank concludes India is doin badly on Carona front!!

澳大利亚智库的结论是，印度在控制疫情方面做得很糟糕!!

HappyTimes User

but the government has been in ab undue hurry to approve the vaccines and the deaths after the jab has also been covered up by the officials. The government data cannot be fully trusted.

印度政府过于匆忙地批准了疫苗，而官方也掩盖了注射疫苗后的死亡事件。政府数据不完全可信。

Vidyanand Shetty

this is mysterious land... this land is blessed . we have one of the best PM (Pradhan Sevak). we are all blessed

印度是一片神秘的土地……这片土地受上天庇佑。我们有最优秀的总理。我们都是幸运的

Michaelalok

CREDIT GOES TO MODI JI’S LEADERSHIP; INSPIRATION, CARE.

功劳归于莫迪的领导、鼓舞和关爱。

Robie Shoby

India is fortunate in this respect because,for centuries,we've been exposed to all sorts of viral infections,have lived in crowded surroundings & the atmosphere itself is very dense.This explains why the fatality rate is so low compared to advanced western countries although the total number could be 'n' number of times of what reported.

印度是幸运的，

几个世纪以来，我们暴露于各种病毒感染，生活在拥挤的环境中。

这就解释了为什么印度的死亡率与西方发达国家相比是如此之低，尽管绝对数字大几倍。

Michaelalok

ALL CREDIT GOES TO THE GOVT FOR TAKING TIMELY ACTIONS AND MANDATING WEARING MASKS. PM MODI JI IS CERTAINLY A GENIUS WITH TREMENDOUS FORESIGHT. FORTUNATE TO HAVE SUCH A GREAT LEADER IN OUR COUNTRY.

要归功于印度政府及时采取行动，并要求人们戴口罩。

莫迪总理是一个具有远见卓识的天才。

我们国家能有这样一位伟大的领袖真是幸运啊。

himanshu biswal

It's very very true

这是千真万确的

Michaelalok

THE BEST GOVERNENT IN YEARS! KUDOS!

这么多年以来做得最出色的政府!

致敬!

Ashok Amin

co.operation ofpeople with quick action of all govt departments of govt is the main reason for the control of the decease. scientists of the country also have played big roll.

主要归功于各政府部门迅速行动控制疫情。科学家也发挥了很大的作用。

Mohan Kulkarni

They have ignored a very important reason: ......,PROTECTION OF GOD! ......,Indians by nature are God-fearing and frequent Temples, Mosques and Churches. God in turn, protects them!

他们忽略了一个非常重要的原因：神的保佑!……

印度人天生敬畏神，经常去寺庙和教堂。

所以神会保佑他们!

Shahad El

Indian Government stop testing long back, we have a lot of issue already, what corona can do to to Indians.

印度政府早就停止检测了，印度人本来就已经患过很多病了，新冠病毒还能把印度人怎么样。

Ranjan Kumar Indian

All credit goes to our PM. Having said that, I keep my fingers crossed. Second wave cannot be ruled out completely. We don't have to lower our our guard.

这一切都归功于我们的总理。话虽如此，我还是祈求上天保佑。

不能完全排除第二波疫情，我们不能放松警惕。

Michaelalok

SEEN, COVAN IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD!

看到了吧，印度新冠疫苗是全世界效果最好的!

Animesh Das

No test no covid, simple

没有检测就没有病例，就这么简单