What will happen once China overtakes the U.S. economy by 2028?

一旦中国经济在2028年超越美国，将会发生什么？

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Dave Lat, M App Sci from University of Sydney

Along with other sources, the IMF’s World Economic Report says China has already overtaken the US to become the world’s largest economy. Using the most appropriate yardstick, called Purchasing Power Parity, China’s total economy is at $24.2 trillion compared to $20.8 trillion for the United States.

The alternative measure is market exchange rates to compare GDP, but this underestimates the buying power of the currencies.

Even the CIA Factbook notes that “the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China’s output; GDP at the official exchange rate (MER GDP) substantially understates the actual level of China’s output vis-a-vis the rest of the world.”

国际货币基金组织(IMF)的《世界经济报告》称，中国已经超过美国，成为全球最大经济体。如果采用购买力平价这个最恰当的标准来衡量，中国的经济总量为24.2万亿美元，而美国为20.8万亿美元。

另一种方法是用市场汇率来比较GDP，但这低估了货币的购买力。

就连美国中央情报局的《实况报道》也指出，“GDP的官方汇率指标并不是衡量中国产值的准确指标；以官方汇率计算的GDP (MER GDP)大大低估了中国相对于世界其他国家的实际产出水平。”

China’s GDP was worth only $14 trillion when converted into dollars at market rates, however since it is not necessary to purchase goods in USD, then 99 trillion CNY can buy far more than the total production of the United States.

GDP is not the only way to look at the importance of the Chinese economy. In 1995, the value of China’s imports and exports of goods totaled $281 billion or 3% of global trade. By 2018, its total trade in goods had jumped to $4.6 trillion or 12.4%. The US is the world’s second-largest trader at 11.5 %.

So the question about “what will happen”, should be about ”what has happened?”

以市场汇率换算成美元时，中国的GDP价值只有14万亿美元，但人们并不一定需要用美元购买商品，那么99万亿元人民币可以买到远远超过美国总产量的商品。

GDP并不是衡量中国经济重要性的唯一方法。1995年，中国货物进出口总额为2810亿美元，占全球贸易总额的3%。而截至2018年，中国货物贸易总额跃升至4.6万亿美元，占全球贸易总额的12.4%。美国是世界第二大贸易国，占全球贸易总额的为11.5%。

所以你提出的"将会发生什么"的问题其实应该这么问："究竟发生了什么"？

Now in second place, the United States has decided to abandon the level-playing field established by the World Trade Organisation. In other words, when trading rules benefited the United States, they wanted other nations to follow the same rules. Now that other nations have become competitive, they are wanting to abandon those rules and impose tariffs with impunity.

现在排名第二的美国决定破坏世界贸易组织建立的公平竞争环境。换句话说，当贸易规则让美国受益时，他们希望其他国家遵循同样的规则。现在，其他国家开始具备竞争力了，美国就希望废弃这些规则并开征关税，不用担心受到惩罚。

The big crunch will come with a reassessment of the status of the US dollar. At some point, the US will no longer be considered the reserve currency of international trade. This will devalue the dollar, and give the US less control over the world economy. It may no longer be able to sustain massive government deficits.

In one big economic adjustment, the US will no longer be ahead even on MER USD comparisons, and will start to pay interest in accord with it’s political mismanagement. The US government will be forced to make cuts with their military, reducing spending to about 2% of GDP - more than sufficient to stay defended.

The good news is that ordinary Americans will be better off. Their export production will become more competitive, jobs growth will improve and their taxes won’t be wasted on pointless military expenditures.

伴随着国际社会对美元地位的重新评估，一场巨大危机即将来临。也许未来某一天，美国将不再是国际贸易的储备货币。这种情况的后果是美元贬值，美国对世界经济的控制被大大削弱。美国可能无法再承受巨额的政府赤字。

在经济大动荡中，美国将不再遥遥领先，将开始为其政治管理不善的后果买单。美国政府将被迫将军队开支削减到GDP的2%——维持国防也足矣了。

好消息是，美国老百姓的生活会越来越好。他们的出口产品会变得更有竞争力，就业增长进一步提升，纳税人的钱不会浪费在毫无意义的军事开支上。

Mert Toker

Probably Cinderella would turn into a pumpkin. Saudi Arabia would make long term oil contracts with China. American military bases would be replaced with Chinese. The world is not going to use dollars as reserve money anymore. People would speak Chinese as common language (lingua franca) and best students would go to China for studying. Really what will happen once China overtakes the US economy by 2028?

The miracle date is just 96 months later. Therefore I might provide an opinion about it. From my point of view, nothing really would change except few statistics. The reason is obvious to me. Many people evaluate the changes in 20th century standards. It might be an outdated mindset.

灰姑娘可能会变成南瓜吧。沙特阿拉伯将与中国签订长期石油合同。美国的军事基地将被中国取代。世界各国不再把美元作为储备货币。人们会把汉语作为通用语言(lingua franca)，优秀学生奔赴中国学习。真的，一旦中国经济在2028年超过美国，将会发生什么呢？

这个奇迹在96个月后就将发生。所以我想提个意见。在我看来，除了少数统计数据外，什么都不会改变。对我来说，原因是显而易见的。许多人是根据20世纪的标准来预测变化的。但是这可能是一种过时的思维方式。

In 21th century , there are giant companies which challenge state authority in great extent. Trillion dollars worth companies… (Real GDP of Turkey is around 750 billion dollars and it is considered as a G 20 country. )

Therefore once China grows, American companies and American capital invested in China would grow in proportion. Regular American folks might have a difficult time though. However capitalism is about companies and people own them.

21世纪的大企业在很大程度上挑战着国家权威。尤其是那些市值万亿的大企业……(土耳其的实际GDP约为7500亿美元，是20国集团成员国之一。)

因此，只要中国得到了发展，美国公司和美国在中国投资的资本也会相应增长。不过美国老百姓的日子可能会不太好过。但是zb主义就是关于公司和公司股东的。

Saman Anak Sakai

• China AI, robotic and automation acceleratingly implementation on every manufacturing sector will further differentiating itself from other developed or develo countries. This ensures the core techs partners and talents remained domestically and sustainable beneficing to all the surrounding countries, for stable raw materials, food, good, services and energy supply. China will be replacing US as major pattern exporting nation for manufacturing. And narrowing the gap with Japan as a manufacturing equipment and control solutions exporter.
• 中国在每个制造业领域加速实施人工智能、机器人和自动化，这将进一步区别于其他发达国家或发展中国家。这样做确保了中国将核心技术、合作伙伴和人才留在中国国内，并从所有周边国家获得可持续的受益，获得稳定的原材料、食品、商品、服务和能源供应。中国将取代美国，成为制造业的主要出口国，缩小与制造设备和控制解决方案出口国的日本的差距。
• Speed up migrating into super-scale of digital economy by implementing unified IOT exchange platform in digital domain by eliminating exsting currency dependency trading. The concept is like return back to stone age, where trade was dealt by food/good exchange. USD gradually loose its influence power globally since the digitization speed is unavoidable.
• 通过在数字领域实现统一的物联网交易平台，消除了现有的依赖货币的交易模式，加速了向超大规模数字经济的迁移。就好比重回石器时代，通过食物/商品的物物交换进行交易。由于数字化进程不可避免，美元的全球影响力正逐渐减弱。
• Many large scale emerging businesses are going to overtake the conventional human based fit-in businesses. Those near term businesses will be ahead of US firm are self evolving data architectures, IOT exchange taxes and laws, virtual government & services.
• 许多大型新兴企业将取代传统的以人为本的企业。这些短期内就将领先美国公司的业务包括：数据架构、物联网交换税收和法律、虚拟政府和服务。
• Military wise, China will be continue show no interests to start any form of racing. One coaster line, few long lasting friendly countries and several off sore ports for providing security service are good enough for China. However, if China started thinking to pay US to maintain the world peace, surely that would be a lot more peaceful places than today. US based weapon manufacturing company will be allowed to access the manufacturing factory in China to make whatever they want in the name of peace maker.
• 在军事方面，中国还是无意开展任何形式的军备竞赛。一条海上贸易航线，几个长期友好的国家和几个提供安全服务的港口对中国来说就已足够。但是如果中国愿意雇佣美国来维护世界和平，那么肯定会更加和平。总部设在美国的武器制造公司将和中国的制造工厂合作，以和平缔造者的名义制造他们想要的任何东西。
• China increasingly gaining more influencing power globally not by militant force but by cutting out the poverty domestically without invading others. Main stream media will be killed by tik-tok, youtube liked apps and replaced by zero intended human intervention /interpretation media streaming. Also To keep every mouth with sufficient food and having balance of life. Politician is no longer needed in China model. These people will loose their exstent value globally. There will be many jobs will be obsoleted by aggressively digitizing the world economy. Many UC programs has to be revised or closing down physically.
• 中国将获得越来越大的全球影响力，但并非通过武力，中国会通过在不侵略其他国家的情况下消除国内贫困。主流媒体将被抖音、类似youtube这类免受人为干预、不带主流媒体解读的app程序所取代。每个人都将获得足够的食物和平衡的生活。中国模式不再需要政客。这些政客将失去他们在全球范围内存在的价值。世界经济数字化，将会导致许多工作被淘汰。许多大学课程也必须修改甚至关停。
• China could be the first nation to build something on other planet.. and that would be another business that could keep US scientists busy for another century to come.
• 中国可能会是第一个在其他星球上搭建建筑物的国家。这会是让我们的科学家在新世纪忙碌工作的新业务。

Tomaž Vargazon, Practicing atheis

China

Largest economy in the world patch has been passed before, around 1890 UK lost the badge twice, to Germany (industrial output) and USA (overall size of the economy). What about it? It didn’t affect how the world worked one iota.

Now, it is true that China is a tad special, with a huge population and an ego that makes Imperial Germany seem timid by comparison. However that works against them. No one wants to be subservient to a foreign power so when a hegemon rises somewhere, alliances spring up to contain them.

中国

全球最大的经济体也曾被超越过，如1890年前后，英国的世界第一宝座就曾两次被德国(工业产出)和美国(经济总体规模)夺走。可是又怎样呢？它丝毫没有影响世界的运转方式。

现在的中国确实有点特别，拥有庞大的人口和让德意志帝国都相形见绌的自信。但这并非好事，没有人愿意屈从于外国势力，因此当某个地方出现霸权时，就会出现联盟来牵制他们。

Fear not, there’s plenty more fish in the sea. There’s no love lost between China and India and India is set to overtake China in population by 2026 - two years before China is poised to overtake USA in overall economy. Arab bloc is friendlier to the West than it is to China, certainly South Korea, Taiwan and Japan aren’t going anywhere and so on.

The world will eventually orientate to accommodate and control China and China will, in turn, control other powers that be and that will be that.

别怕，天涯何处无芳草。中国和印度的关系一贯不佳，印度人口将在2026年超过中国，比中国在整体经济上超过美国还要早两年。阿拉伯世界对西方国家比对中国更加友好，而韩国和日本也是如此。

Anonymous

8 years is not long but sorta still far away… a lot can happen.

Its hard to know what major obvious changes will occur due to this situation, but some things are gonna happen regardless.

Just a few of my speculations for 2028, in general, regardless of China’s economic ascension:

8年时间并不长，但还是很遥远……很多事情都有可能发生。

很难知道在现在局势下会发生哪些重大变化，但有些事情无论如何都会发生。

以下是我对2028年的一些预测，跟中国的经济发展无关：

Low carbon emitting technology and lifestyles should be at the forefront by then. Some US individuals and China have already made claims to get the peak of current fossil fuel polluting matters before 2030… so I’m assuming by 2028, the peak should have already been there and the low carbon endeavors will be in full force.

2028年时，低碳排放技术和生活方式应该已成为主流。有些美国人和中国已经声称要在2030年之后开始减少化石燃料污染，所以我假设到2028年，化石燃料污染的峰值已经出现，低碳努力将全面发挥作用。

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/51988.html  译者：Joyceliu

Usage of the RMB, in whatever form, should reach very significant levels by then, enough to check some of the pressure from the US dollar. I’m still iffy if the Yuan can be a total replacement as no one wants to rely heavily on one currency post dollar… but having RMB should be just as important as dollars when traveling around the world.

2028年时，人民币的使用，无论以何种形式，都将十分可观，足以遏制来自美元的部分压力。我还不确定人民币是否能完全取代美元，因为没有人喜欢严重依赖某种货币，但是在世界各地旅行时，持有人民币应该和持有美元一样重要。

Usage of Chinese languages among non-Chinese would be in the hundred million(s). Like the RMB and dollar situation, I don’t think it replace the widespread usage of English, but it should be quite important by then worldwide.

非汉语人群使用汉语的人数将会达到几亿之多。就像人民币和美元的情况一样，我不认为它无法取代英语的广泛使用，但在世界范围内会很有地位。

Just speculation here, I could be wrong or off, but based on what I know So far, this is the direction I’m seeing the world is heading by 2028.

这些只是我个人的猜测，也许我说的并不对，但根据我现在的认知，我觉得2028年世界的发展方向应该就是这样。

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