越南、印尼和泰国，哪个国家能最快成为发达国家

Between Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, which country will become a developed country the soonest?

印尼、泰国和越南，哪个国家能最快成为发达国家？

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以下是Quora读者的评论：

Abdul Rozak R. Fassah, worked at Earth

Indonesia. . Either it will come as a blessing or a curse, Indonesia is as far as I'm concerned enjoying more freedom from politics in building its economy compared to the other two.

Indonesians also seem to be more keen on buying things compared to the citizens of the other two countries and Indonesia also has a quite diverse manufacturing sector. Indonesia also somehow has a more stable economy against global economy instability as Indonesia’s economy is actually sustained more by local economy activity than export-import. Of course it has downsides that the foreign currency reserve is low, but Indonesian expats and tourism keep it afloat, not great but enough.

印度尼西亚。就我所知，与其他两个国家相比，印尼在经济建设中享有更多的政治自由。

与其他两个国家的公民相比，印尼人似乎更热衷于购物，而且印尼也有相当丰富多样的制造业。在全球经济动荡的背景下，印尼的经济在某种程度上更为稳定，因为印尼经济更依靠国内经济，而非国际贸易。当然，它也有缺点，那就是外汇储备不足，但印尼侨民和旅游业收入使得外汇总额虽然不多，但尚能平衡。

Indonesia's education system is bad but fortunately Indonesian smart students have a high “patriotic” value in their blood so more of them are more keen to come back and build their Indonesia rather than staying abroad, that's why Indonesian diaspora abroad numbers pretty much of insignificant percentage of population (except Malaysia and some Gulf countries) compared to the Vietnamese, Filipino, or Thai abroad. Hence, brain drain is not much an issue, some of the returnees have even created a lot of job opportunities for their compatriots here in Indonesia.

Indonesia hardly ever makes the headline of world news, except when there is tsunami, because Indonesia is somehow at global scale is just fine. Indonesia might not have a great damned prolonged war like Vietnam War or regular military coup like in Thailand, but Indonesia has learned quite a lot from its own history. Indonesia has never ending regional rebellion period across the country in the 50–60s, co unist coup in 1965, dic ship era until 1998, and sectarian conflict era until mid 2000s. Indonesians want stability, even the most extremist group in the country has never really dared to go far to ruin the country. Indonesians have MOSTLY learned their lesson, and now Indonesia has relatively reached this stability and look! Indonesia is now building toll roads across the archipelago, Indonesia doesn't build only Java anymore! Therefore, here I put my bet for Indonesia. Also, did you know Indonesia HDI has just reached the highly-developed nation category in 2019?

印尼的教育制度并不好，但幸运的是，印尼的优秀学生有着很高的“爱国主义”情怀，比起留在国外，他们更喜欢回国建设印尼，这就是比起越南、菲律宾、泰国移民，印尼移民在海外所占的人口比例微不足道的原因(马来西亚和一些海湾国家除外)。因此，人才流失在印尼算不上什么大问题，一些海归甚至为他们的印尼同胞创造了大量的就业机会。

除非发生海啸，不然印尼很少登上世界新闻的头条，因为印尼在全球范围内的形象都还算不错。印尼可能没有像越南那样经历过旷日持久的战争，也没有像泰国那样经历着一波又一波的军事政变，但印尼从自己的历史中学到了很多。印尼也曾经历过50 - 60年代的全国叛乱，1965年的*主义政变，1998年前的独才统治，2000年代中期之前的宗派冲突。印尼人希望国家稳定，即便是这个国家最极端的组织也不敢过分破坏自己的国家。印尼人大多都已经吸取了教训，现在印尼已经相对稳定。现在印尼正在修建横跨各个群岛的收费公路，不再只建设爪哇了！因此，我赌印尼会最快发展起来。另外你可知道，印尼的人类发展指数已在2019年跻身高度发达国家水平了？

Anonymous

Thailand is closer to become a developed country than Vietnam and Indonesia but it also has the highest risk between them to stuck in the middle income cathegory for longer time.

Thai population is aging so fast than the other two to the extent at the same pace of European countries. Unfortunately, unlike Japan or Europe, Thailand is not that rich to replace the reduced supply of labor with technology like Japan. In addition, unlike Japan or Europe where the economy relies more on service and high-value industry sector, most of the income for the Thai economy is still from the low-value industry, agriculture, and tourism.

泰国比越南和印度尼西亚更容易成为发达国家，但是泰国也最容易长时间陷入中等收入行列。

泰国的人口老龄化速度比其他两个国家快得多，与欧洲国家相当。但不幸的是，与日本或欧洲相比，泰国并没有那么富裕，无法像日本那样用技术来替代劳动力供应的减少。此外，泰国经济不像日本或欧洲那样更多地依赖于服务业和高附加值产业，泰国经济的大部分收入仍然来自低附加值产业、农业和旅游业。

Next after Thailand is Vietnam, but it still has still high risk from aging population and public debt (which reach over 60% of GDP). Vietnam has passed its demographic dividend in 2018 and it should’ve been able to be used to make Vietnam as an upper-middle income country before more and more Vietnamese getting older and increasing the burden of its budget for healthcare, social insurance and pensions (demographic debt). Vietnam has the advantage over Thailand and Indonesia in terms of education and it must be utilized as much as possible to increase labour competitiveness before it lose the opportunity to increase Vietnam's per capita income due to aging population.

Indonesia takes a lot longer time than the two countries but has greater potential that neither of them has, namely a stable and higher population growth, coupled with large population. It can grow like India, but with a more manageable population number and abundant natural resources, these things can increase the competitiveness of Indonesia's human capital to increase its economic productivity. In addition, public debt is still relatively lower than its neighbours (30% of GDP). With population less than only United States, India, and China, once it become a developed country, it will not only make Indonesia a big player in Asia but an emerging superpower of the world. Corruption, the lack of infrastructure, low education standard and natural disaster are major challenges for Indonesia.

排在泰国之后的是越南，但越南现在还面临着人口老龄化和公共债务(占GDP的60%以上)的高风险。越南的人口红利已经在2018年达到顶峰，老年化越来越严重，在成为医疗、社会保险和养老金(人口债务)的预算负担之前，越南的劳动力资源本可以让越南成为中上收入国家的。在教育方面，越南比泰国和印度尼西亚更具优势，在越南因人口老龄化而失去提高人均收入的机会之前，必须尽可能利用这一优势来提高劳动竞争力。

印尼需要花费的时间要比另外两个国家长得多，但印尼拥有更大的发展潜力：社会稳定、人口增长快，加上本身就已庞大的人口基数。印尼可以像印度那样高速增长，同时还拥有更易管理的人口规模和更为丰富的自然资源，这些可以提高印尼人力资本的竞争力，从而提高经济生产率。此外，印尼的公共债务仍然相对低于其邻国(只占GDP的30%)。人口少于美国、印度和中国的印尼，一旦成为发达国家，不单会使印尼成为亚洲的大国，还会成为一个崛起的世界超级大国。腐败、基础设施匮乏、教育水平低和自然灾害是印尼目前面临的主要挑战。

Jonri Purwak, Born and raised in Indonesia.

Currently, we know that Thailand has the most advantage when it comes to economy.

Vietnam is enjoying rapid growth thanks to the tremendous amount of factories relocated from China to Vietnam as the result of Trade War. This has created many new jobs and opportunities for the locals.

Indonesia is also one of the few countries where the economy is growing quickly thanks to palm oil industry and foreign investments. The massive infrastructure project is also promising for a long term effect.

Of all the three, only Indonesia has the most promising population of young workers in the next 20–30 years as Vietnam and Thailand are suffering from the lack of young people. This means that Vietnam and Thailand have to race against their aging population. If they failed, then there will be no hope for these two countries to develop even further.

目前，我们知道泰国在经济方面拥有的优势最大。

因为中美贸易战，大量工厂从中国迁往越南，越南正在经历经济的快速增长。这为当地人创造了许多新的就业机会。

由于棕榈油工业和外国投资，印尼也是少数几个经济快速增长的国家之一。大规模的基础设施建设项目也有望带来长期效果。

在这三个国家中，只有印尼在未来20-30年里拥有最具活力的年轻劳动力人口，而越南和泰国都开始面临年轻人口缺乏的问题。这意味着越南和泰国必须与老龄化人口博弈。如果他们失败了，那么这两个国家就没有希望进一步发展。

Indonesia’s mega population can lead to disaster if the poor keep having 4–6 babies. They are useful as factory workers, but they also waste more subsidies from the government. Another challenge is the size of the country. Bigger lands means that the government have to spend more on creating and maintaining infrastructure.

I would say Vietnam will be the earliest to become a developed country, but only if they keep develo before their population become old enough. One secret weapon that they have is education. Vietnam’s education is ranked as the second best in Southeast Asia. I believe that education is very important for a country’s development. For instance, many European countries were devastated by World War 2, but they quickly recovered thanks to their relatively educated population

如果穷人继续无节制地生育4-6个孩子，印尼庞大的人口也可能会导致灾难。他们作为工厂工人，对国家是有益的，但同时也会耗费政府的更多补贴。另一个考验是国家规模。国土面积大就意味着政府必须在建设和维护基础设施上投入更多资金。

要我说，越南会最快成为发达国家，但前提是他们在人口老龄化之前能持续发展。他们有一个秘密武器，那就是教育。越南的教育在东南亚排名第二。我认为教育对一个国家的发展是至关重要的。例如，许多欧洲国家在第二次世界大战中遭受重创，但由于他们的人口受教育程度相对较高，国家经济很快就从混乱中恢复了。

Alejandro Peralta, studied at Association Football

Thailand.

Here is a thing that makes Thailand to be more developed in the future into a level of a fairly developed country:

1.Comparing to other nations, it still has a relatively young population despite it is now witnessing the rise of old population. Thailand is reinforced with high-tech developments and economic successes.

2.Thailand has let themselves untouched from wars at 20th century with the small exception during WWII. Even when Thailand suffered coup d’etats, Thai authorities were smart to not let it involve into the economy. It gives them big boost to fire up.

3.Indonesia and Vietnam have suffered too many problems. For Indonesia: geographical diversity, too many population, natural disasters, unbalance in region developed (Java is too rich but Indonesian Guinea is too poor, for example); for Vietnam: too corrupt, still healing from war, auth rian yet incapable regime, losing balance in North and South. Also hard environment to invest.

泰国。

有一件事可以让泰国变得更加发达，成为发达国家：

1.与其他国家相比，尽管泰国现在开始出现人口老龄化的问题，泰国的人口还是相对年轻的。泰国因高科技发展和经济成功而更加强大。

2.除了二战期间的一场小意外，泰国没有受到20世纪战争的影响。即使在发生政变时，泰国当局也很明智，没有影响到经济。这使得他们能全速发展。

3.印尼和越南遭遇了太多的难题。对印度尼西亚来说：地理多样性、人口过多、自然灾害、地区发达程度不平衡(例如，爪哇太富裕，但印尼几内亚很穷)；越南：腐败严重，尚未从战争中恢复，独才无能的政府，南北不平衡，投资环境恶劣。

I see Indonesians believe that they will develop more than Thailand and Vietnam. However, let me explain truly: Thailand will be the first, because they have successfully had a good system that more advanced than other neighboring around. Have Indonesia? Have Vietnam? Also, how many natural disaster Thailand suffer than Indonesia? Also does Thailand suffer wars like Vietnam?

我发现印尼人相信他们会比泰国和越南发展得更好。但我还是真心地想说一句：泰国会是第一名，因为他们成功地拥有了比其他邻国更先进的体制。印尼有吗？越南有吗？还有，跟印尼比，泰国遭受了多少自然灾害？泰国有像越南一样深受战争之苦吗？

Pham Hung Lam

Vietnam has enormous potentials.

But the Vietnamese government and the Vietnamese people need to collaborate to maxmize these potentials.

越南有巨大的潜力。

但越南政府和越南人民必须团结合作，使这些潜力最大化地发挥出来。

Geography

Vietnam is strategically located next to the sea, with all of its main cities easily accessible to its long coastline.

Vietnam is very close to all major economic centres in Asia.

地理位置

越南拥有沿海的战略位置，所有的大城市距离漫长的海岸线都很近。

越南离亚洲所有重要的经济中心都很近。

Hanoi city is:

1.5 hour from Hong Kong

2 hour from Shenzhen

3 hour from Shanghai

3.5 hour from Beiing

4 hour from Seoul

4.5 hour from Tokyo

河内：

距香港1.5小时车程

距离深圳2小时车程

距离上海3小时车程

距北京3.5小时车程

距首尔4小时车程

距东京4.5小时

Ngo The Hoan

I feel like Vietnam is walking on a tightrope at the moment. We have some major issue such as infrastructure development. It takes a long time for big infrastructure projects to complete and in the meantime, countries with a head start have already skipped ahead of us.

Another problem is that with globalization, Vietnamese brands need to compete with bigger established international brands that have more capital and market presence than ours. The biggest challenge is to protect our companies from being swallowed by international companies. Without having domestic champions that act as growth and innovation drivers, Vietnam won’t break through the middle income trap.

What gives me hope is the strong unity of the Vietnamese people, our ethnic pride and love for our country.

我觉得越南现在就像在走钢丝。我们面临着一些重大问题，比如基础设施建设。大型基础设施需要很长时间才能完工，而领先的国家已将我们远远甩在身后。

另一个问题是，随着全球化进程，越南品牌要与比我们拥有更多资本和市场份额的大型国际品牌竞争。保护越南公司不被国际公司吞并，是我们面临的最大挑战。如果没有国内企业作为经济增长和创新的驱动力，越南就无法突破中等收入陷阱。

但让我看到了希望的是越南人民的团结，民族自豪感和对祖国的爱。

For example when China stopped buying Vietnamese farm products due to the coronavirus, Vietnamese turned leftover dragon fruits into bread, noodle and pancake. It made me so emotional to see people coming together, it perfectly captured our people’s unity and resourcefulness. I can only wish that we would do the same to support domestic Vietnamese brands.

I do hope and deep in my heart believe that Vietnam can become a developed country in the next 20 years. But I feel that we have such a small window to get this right. I don’t know about other Vietnamese people, but I feel very anxous and worried for our future.

例如，当中国因新冠肺炎停止购买越南农产品时，越南人把吃剩的火龙果做成面包、面条和煎饼。看到人们团结合作，我很激动，这完美地体现了我们越南人民的团结和智慧。我希望我们能继续团结，支持越南品牌。

我真心希望，并在内心深处相信，越南可以在未来20年成为一个发达国家。但我觉得我们机会并不算大。我不知道其他越南人怎么想，但我对我们的未来感到非常焦虑和担心。

Muhammad Chidfirul Aziz, I am Indonesian

No one can predict the future just no one ever think Syria will be in war like right now, but based on my prediction

Vietnam

I went to vietnam last month, and vietnam growth is staggering, in just 30 years after the war, vietnam almost surpassed indonesia`s 71 years growth

If China can be the China today, vietnam will be next China because Vietnamese is actually Chinese with Chinese attitude and culture, not to mention vietnam education is at high rank just below Singapore

The geographical position of vietnam is also very strategist, soon more business from china or anywhere else will move to vietnam as its strategic location and low cheap labour

没人能预测未来，就像没人能预料到叙利亚会像现在这样陷入战争泥潭，但我猜是越南。

我上个月去了越南，越南的经济增长速度惊人，在战后的30年里，越南的发展几乎超过了印尼71年的成就。

既然中国能发展成如今的模样，那么越南也将成为下一个中国，因为越南人其实就是中国人，有着中国人的态度和文化，更何况越南的教育水平仅次于新加坡。

越南的地理位置也很有战略意义，很快，会有更多来自中国或其他地方的商业活动因为越南的战略位置和廉价劳动力而转移到越南。

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/52092.html 译者：Joyceliu

Indonesian must change its people mentality and education system to beat vietnam, actually indonesia has more natural resources than vietnam or Thailand, but the abundance of natural resources make most indonesian so laid back and rely on that (country with huge population supposed not to rely on limited natural resources, but supposed to rely on its human capital)

Thailand seems to be a stuck in growth due to political problem, seeing that Thailand was not invaded by any colonialist country, actually Thailand supposed to be the most developed nation in ASEAN but the reality Thailand keep it position in par with indonesia who gain independence 71 years ago

It is just forecast, both Indonesia and Vietnam have potential, but what potential without wise policy and realisation

印尼人民必须改变国民的心态和教育体制，才能打败越南，实际上比起越南和泰国，印尼拥有更多的自然资源，但丰富的自然资源使得大多数印尼人太过懒散，依赖自然资源(人口庞大的国家不应该依赖有限的自然资源，而是应该依靠劳动力资源)。

泰国似乎因为政治问题而停滞不前，泰国并未被任何殖民*义国家入侵过，事实上泰国应该是东盟最发达的国家，但现实是泰国与71年前获得独立的印度尼西亚不相上下。

这只是我的预测，印尼和越南都有发展潜力，但缺乏明智的政策和执行手段。