What is your prediction for the United States' economy in 2021?

你觉得美国经济2021年的表现会如何？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Joseph Nazzaro, Ph.D. University of Wales

During the pandemic, the US government has forced the roll out of 5G. 5G is intended to be the backbone of the new digital economy and digital world. To address the pandemic, an unprecedented intervention has forced us to shut down the non-digital areas of the economy, except for essential services which cannot be digitally controlled at this time.

It is like the stock market crash of 29 which shut down the under-performing less efficient industries, which allowed for a re-tooling of more efficient industries they teach. It provided a redeployment of the labor force into more modern and efficient industries. We did it in 2020 without a crash, just a lockdown. Took down the airlines, closed the borders and all doors of hospitality.

疫情期间，美国政府强行推出5G网络。5G将成为新数字经济和数字世界的支柱。为了对付疫情，我们采取了前所未有的干预措施，迫使我们关闭经济中除了无法通过数字控制的基本服务之外的非数字领域。

这就像1929年的股市崩盘，表现不佳、效率较低的行业被关停，为效率更高的行业提供了重组的机会。劳动力得以进入到更现代、更高效的行业中。我们在2020年只通过隔离就顺利地实现了这一点。我们关闭了航空公司，关闭了边境和酒店。

Gilbert Dominguez, Investment Consultant for 30 Years.

That all depends. It is never a good idea to simply make assumptions.

If the US overall is able to do more business and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic can be reversed or ended with people being better able to go back to work and the US able to become more productive with a buying base for it greater production output then the economy should do better in 2021 than it did during all of 2020.

You also have to keep in mind that the national debt has increased tremendously and it will only be much harder now to bring down the debt. Will we really experience an overall gain ? That is too hard to say right now.

Up to the present I have been able to consistently improve the quality of my family’s life but now my wife has a plan to further increase the quality of all of our lives which I support, but it will mean that we will need to take on a new debt of $300,000.00 we do not have right now .

这不好说。简单做假设并非好事。

如果美国增加贸易额，美国人能够更好地重返工作岗位，Covid-19疫情的影响可以得以逆转或结束，提高生产力满足美国人民的购买力，美国经济在2021年的表现应该会比2020年好。

不过你还要牢记于心的是，国家债务已经大幅增加，现在要减少债务会更加困难。我们真的能获得盈余吗？现在还很难说。

如今我能持续提高家人的生活质量，现在我妻子希望进一步改善生活，我对她的想法非常赞同，这将意味着我们需要增加300000美元的新债务，可我们现在手头并没有这笔钱。

For the last 5 years neither my wife nor I have needed employment income but our new plan calls for both of us to go to work in employment or running a new business or perhaps even more than one new business. There are a lot of unknowns right now as to whether we will truly end up getting ahead or not.

Sure outwardly it will appear we are doing better with new cars, a new house, more land and one or more businesses but will our quality of life be the same, better, or worse ? Will we really be improving our quality life ?

过去5年我和我的妻子都不需要工作收入，但我们对生活的新规划要求我们两人都必须工作，或者多做一门生意，甚至可能不止一门。现在对于我们最终能否真正取得成功，还有很多未知数。

当然，从表面上看，我们多了新车、新房、土地、一门甚至几门生意，但我们的生活质量可以得以维持，或者因此变得更好还是更差？我们真的能改善我们的生活质量吗？

You have to look at everything from the point of looking at the big picture. Right now with our current level of income I am looking at only 5 to 7 years to pay for our proposed, and thought of increased debt but what if things do not turn out the way we are thinking that they will ? What if I should die within the next 5 to 7 years, who knows.

You can think of the overall economy in the same way, so we really do not know if the overall economy will truly become better or not.

看待每件事都要从大局入手。以我们目前的收入水平，我只需要5到7年的时间就能实现我们的愿望，但考虑到多出来的这笔债务，如果事情不像我们预想的那样该怎么办？如果我5到7年内就死了呢，谁能知道呢。

你也可以用同样的方式来分析整体经济，所以我们不知道整体经济会不会真的好转。

Mike Eichenberg, BS Accounting & Mathematics, Northwest Missouri State University (1978)

My answer is this. Do you mean the real economy or the fake economy? A real economy is able to operate with minimal unemployment or real unemployment at around 5–6%, Interest rates around 5–6% and inflation at or around 1%.

So none of these exst today. Interest rates are 0–1%, unemployment is around 9%, and inflation is now around 2.5%.

This basically means that we are operating on borrowed time. Handing money to people basically diminished the actual value of the money. This is because without an exchange of value, then the money received has no real impact in the long term. An economy operates most efficiently when wages less cost of living provide a middle class life style. Not upper middle class, not poverty line, middle class.

以下是我的回答。你指的是实体经济吗？实体经济能够在最低失业率或实际失业率为5-6%，利率5-6%，通货膨胀1%左右的情况下维持。

现在这些都不存在了，利率0-1%，失业率高达9%，通货膨胀率在2.5%左右。

这基本上意味着我们正在透支未来。给人们钱财基本上降低了钱的实际价值。这是因为，如果没有进行价值交换，那么人们的收入在长时间内没有发挥真正的影响。当工资和生活成本的降低让中产阶级享受生活时，经济的运行效率才是最高的。无关中上阶层，也无关贫困群体，正是中产阶级。

The fact that our economy is based upon consumption gratification and people are willing to go into debt for that consumption, is proof enough.

Wages are not increasing with inflation, basic necessities are rising in cost, and debt is about to take another leg up.

I am sorry that I can’t be more positive, but we live in a fake economy for many.

我们的经济是建立在消费满足的基础上的，人们愿意为了消费而负债，这一事实就足以证明这一点。

工资并没有跟随通货膨胀而上涨，基本生活必需品的价格在上涨，债务也将进一步增加。

我不够乐观，我很抱歉，但我们正生活在一个虚假繁荣的经济泡沫中。

Kevin Bar, Managing director at Biami Human Services

I am loosing faith in economics because everyone is focusing on business as usual. It is the end of business as usual but I do not see it any where. The financial system is destroyed and the same players are introducing a crypto currency with no asset backing. It is just more of the same “money for nothing” thinking. The water has been turned off for the farmers in Mexco so that a food shortage will happen. Australia has no economy except houses, coal and iron ore. I have no idea what Victoria will do to begin its economy again.

我现在对我们国家的经济失去了信心，大家还是一如既往地重视贸易。金融系统遭到破坏，玩家们推出一种没有资产背书的加密货币。这依然还是“不劳而获”的想法。墨西哥农民的水源已经被切断，粮食短缺即将爆发。澳大利亚除了房子、煤炭和铁矿石之外没有其他经济。我不知道维多利亚州打算如何重新振兴经济。

My prediction for 2021 is gloom, doom and civil unrest as the “weasels” in charge keep thinking only of themselves. “We, the People” are going to have to rise up and make the changes ourselves.

我对2021年的预测是悲观、毁灭和社会动荡，因为美国掌权的“黄鼠狼”只考虑他们自己的利益。“我们百姓”不得不站起来，亲自做出改变。

Anonymous

First half we will be fluctuating with trying to fight Covid and continuing as much activity as can be.

Second half is when we truly find out what direction this country will head towards.

I do expect higher taxes, and higher costs all around. How much is the real question.

Wages may stagnate for some, but might rise slightly for others.

Some people will take risks, but some will still be conservative with their finances.

Unemployment and underemployment will still be high.

上半年，我们会在努力抗击新冠肺炎和尽量恢复商业活动中摇摆动荡。

下半年，我们才会真正找到这个国家前进的方向。

我预测税收和成本都会升高。增加多少才是真正的问题。

有些人的工资可能会停滞不前，有些人的工资可能会小幅上涨。

有些人会选择冒险一搏，有些人在财务方面会依然保守。

失业率和就业不足仍将居高不下。

I do expect the whole trade war fiasco to end completely.

Many more businesses will close down. Some new ones will pop up, but maybe not enough to replace the lost ones.

2021 will be a tough year.

In addition to tackling the Covid crisis, and currency issues (massive printing and stimulus , but that’s another topic) …

A big question regarding the economy is what engine are we gonna use to accelerate our recovery and prosperity. At the moment, I only have 2 scenarios:

我真心希望贸易战的惨败能彻底结束。

将有更多的企业倒闭。一些新企业会出现，但可能无法代替倒闭的企业。

2021年将会是艰难的一年。

除此之外，还要应对新冠病毒危机和货币问题(政府采取大规模印钱和大量经济刺激手段，但这是另一个话题了)……

关于经济的一个大问题是我们可以使用什么引擎来加速我们的经济复苏。截止目前，我只想到两种情况：

1.Major infrastructure overhaul, possibly building entire new cities with the latest trends and technology. Might be part of the so-called Green New Deal or not.

2.Full speed with the modern monetary theory. More money put into people’s hands and we spend ourselves out of the troubles. This is extremely foolish, and dangerous according to some…but I can see people doing it. To tackle the obvious inflation problems, we’re gonna be swamp with even more imports and work more closely with the international community.

1. 大规模的基础设施改革，也许用最新的趋势和技术建设全新的城市。可能会成为所谓的绿色新政的一部分，也可能不是。
2. 全力推广现代货币理论。把更多的钱放在百姓的手里，通过消费把自己从困境中解脱出来。有些人认为这是极其愚蠢和危险的做法，但我发现民众就是这么做的。为了解决明显的通货膨胀问题，我们将被更多的进口商品淹没，并与国际社会展开更为密切的合作。

Jackson Rayburn

The US economy is currently going through some major transitions, so I don't see a return to growth until these multi-year transitions are done. As for what I see at the end of this long transition:

Retail jobs are going to be dead for good, as traditional retail isn't going to recover.

Manufacturing is likely to do a lot better, at the end of it all. The rise of automation means a lot for manufacturing, but one of the largest is that transportation, energy, and overhead costs are likely to be the bigger drivers than labor costs. So a rise of manufacturing output, yes, but less jobs — especially for the previous manufacturing workforce.

美国经济目前正在经历一些重大转变，所以在这些耗时多年的转变完成之前，我认为经济无法恢复增长。至于我对这一漫长转变时期结束时的看法：

零售业的工作岗位将永远消失，传统零售业没办法复苏。

制造业的表现可能会好得多。自动化的崛起对制造业意义重大，其中最大的一个因素是交通、能源和日常管理成本可能是比劳动力成本更大的驱动因素。所以制造业产出增加了，但工作岗位减少了——尤其是对比旧时的制造业劳动力而言。

译文来源：三泰虎 https://www.santaihu.com/p/52129.html 译者：Joyceliu

The economy will become much more reliant on specialized knowledge and skills. Something will have to be done to generate these skills.

The US Dollar is going to fall. Import prices will rise. It will not collapse, but much of the debts of Americans and the US government will have to be inflated away. This can provide new life into the US economy, but it will mean a decline of finance, real estate, and similar sectors, and a relative rise of the real economy.

Overall, this will be a much needed rebalancing of the US economy, and result in higher long term growth than at present. But it will be a pain to get there.

经济将更加依赖于专业知识和技能。必须采取一些措施来培养这些技能。

美元将会贬值。进口商品价格将上涨。虽然美元不会崩盘，但美国人和美国政府的大部分债务将不得不通过通胀来消除。这可以为美国经济注入新的活力，这将意味着金融、房地产和同类行业的衰退，以及实体经济的相对崛起。

总体而言，这会是美国经济亟需的再度平衡，将带来比目前更大的长期增长。但这将是一个痛苦的过程。

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