高盛预测，到2075年，巴基斯坦将成为世界上最大的经济体之一

Pakistan projected to be among largest economies in the world by 2075: Goldman Sachs

高盛预测，到2075年，巴基斯坦将成为世界上最大的经济体之一

A research paper published by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday projected Pakistan to be the sixth largest economy in the world by 2075 given “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place.

高盛周二发布的一份研究报告预测，如果“适当的政策和制度”到位，到2075年，巴基斯坦将成为世界第六大经济体。

Authored by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas and titled ‘The Path to 2075’, the paper projected that the five largest economies by 2075 will be China, India, the US, Indonesia and Nigeria.

这篇题为《通往2075年的道路》的论文由经济学家凯文·戴利和塔达斯·格德米纳斯撰写，预计到2075年全球最大的五个经济体将是中国、印度、美国、印度尼西亚和尼日利亚。

Goldman Sachs has been projecting long-term growth of countries for almost two decades now, initially starting out with BRICs economies but later expanding to cover 70 emerging and developed economies.

高盛近20年来一直在预测各国的长期增长，最初从金砖四国开始，后来扩展到70个新兴经济体和发达经济体。

Their latest paper covers 104 countries with projections going as far as 2075.

他们最新的报告涵盖了104个国家，并预测了到2075年的情况。

Pakistan’s future star status is predicted on the back of its population growth, which along with Egypt and Nigeria, could place it among the largest economies in the world in the next 50 years, according to Goldman Sachs.

根据高盛的预测，巴基斯坦未来的明星地位将建立在其人口增长的基础上。未来50年，巴基斯坦将与埃及和尼日利亚一道，跻身全球最大经济体之列。

By that time, the research projects Pakistan’s Real GDP to have grown to $12.7 trillion and its GDP per capita to $27,100.

该研究预计届时巴基斯坦的实际GDP将增长到12.7万亿美元，人均GDP将达到2.71万美元。

These numbers, however, are projected to be less than a third of the size of China, India and the US. India’s Real GDP in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita GDP at $31,300.

然而，预计的这些数字还不到中国、印度和美国的三分之一。印度2075年的实际GDP预计为52.5万亿美元，人均GDP为31300美元。

Among key risks to their projections, the economists particularly highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism”.

在他们预测的主要风险中，经济学家特别强调了“环境灾难”和“民粹民族主义”。

Unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response, climate change could heavily skew these projections, particularly for countries like Pakistan, with geographies that are especially vulnerable.

除非通过全球协调一致的应对措施确保可持续增长的道路，否则气候变化可能严重扭曲这些预测，特别是对巴基斯坦这样地理位置特别脆弱的国家。

With populist nationalists coming to power in many countries, the report says it might lead to increased protectionism that could potentially result in the reversal of globalisation, thereby increasing income inequality across countries.

报告称，随着民粹主义民族主义者在许多国家上台，这可能会导致保护主义加剧，从而可能导致全球化逆转，从而加剧各国的收入不平等。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论：

Enlightened One

Goldman Sachs is having a senior moment! Or, April Fool’s day has arrived 4 months earlier!!

高盛老糊涂了，愚人节提前4个月到了！

Check

Who is the duffer from Goldman Sachs

高盛的哪个笨蛋写的？

Printing mistake must be 7025!

打印错误，肯定是7025年！

Check

Even Pakistanis will be laughing at the article and someone (you know who) will be saying from his heart- joke of the century

就连巴基斯坦人看到这篇文章都笑了。某些人（你们知道是谁）会发自内心地说——世纪笑话

asma

Pakistan to be world superpower in 3025 AD.

巴基斯坦将在公元3025年成为世界超级大国。

Saj

People born this year in 2022 will be 53 years old in 2075. This sounds like a lottery prediction.

2022年出生的人到2075年将达到53岁。这听起来像彩票预测。

asma

Nothing will change in this country. If Pakistan survives to 2075 that is, chances are it will be broken into pieces thanks to neutrals

这个国家什么都不会改变，就算巴基斯坦存活到2075年，也就是说，由于中立国家的存在，它很可能会被分裂成几块

CarelessWhispers

Only possible if we can get rid of the current ruling elite of all political parties, be they be from PTI, PMLN, PPP etc....

只有我们能摆脱所有政党的统治精英，无论是PTI、PMLN、PPP等等，才有可能实现

Amira

This will not happen because Pakistan will remain obsessed with who follows what religion and how to control women .

这不会发生，巴基斯坦将继续沉迷于谁信仰什么宗教以及如何控制女性。

Ashok Saigal

I fear the Researchers have confused Population Growth with Economic Growth

我担心研究人员混淆了人口增长和经济增长

alphaMay

Selling dreams to a bankrupt country.

向一个破产国家兜售梦想

Rana Talukdar

To be $12.5 trillion economy by 2075 Pakistan will have to grow at the rate of 7+% for the next 53 yrs. If Not impossible but near to impossible.

At the same rate India will be $122 trillion economy.

IMPOSSIBLE !

这是不可能的！要想在2075年达到12.5万亿美元的经济规模，巴基斯坦必须在未来53年保持7%以上的速度增长。就算不是不可能，也几乎不可能。按照同样的速度，印度将成为122万亿美元经济体。

Hope it is true but there are so many variables. Our current leaders have myopic view and can't think of or implement policies for long term growth.

希望这是真的，但变数太多了。我们的现任领导人目光短浅，不考虑或实施能促成长期增长的政策。

This can only happen with slower population growth, top of the class education and with least lust for money and profits and the mother of all corruption free government and society.

这只有在人口增长放缓、教育水平高、对金钱和利润的欲望最小、政府和社会没有腐败的情况下才能实现。

farhan shamsi

keyword being "appropriate policies and institutions" we need to mature as a nation, understand that we need to get rid of pseudo military government. strengthen our government and justice system

关键词是“适当的政策和制度”，我们作为一个国家需要成熟，明白我们需要摆脱军政府，加强我们的政府和司法体系

Does anyone seriously believe this?

真的有人相信吗？

TMM

It's a lead story, Dawn has taken it too serious.

这成了头条新闻，巴基斯坦黎明报太当真了。

Truth

For the moment forget onion prices (which went by few hundred percent this year & enjoy the fairy tale

暂时忘掉洋葱的价格吧，今年洋葱价格上涨了百分之几，享受这个童话故事吧

Partiot

Not with the current government!! Fresh elections now!

在现任巴基斯坦政府的领导下是不行的，重新选举吧！