世界银行首席经济学家：印度应寻求将潜在增长率从6%提高到8%

India should seek to push potential growth from 6% to 8%: World Bank chief economist

世界银行首席经济学家：印度应寻求将潜在增长率从6%提高到8%

World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill believes there are several things going for India – from the demographics to geopolitics and from a large domestic market to low debt levels in the private sector. He tells TOI in an interview that India should seek to push its potential growth from 6% to 8% by focusing on greater efficiency and economic freedom and quality education and by staying open to FDI and trade.

世界银行首席经济学家Indermit Gill认为，印度有几个有利因素——从人口结构到地缘政治，从庞大的国内市场到私营部门的低债务水平。他在接受《印度时报》采访时表示，印度应该把重点放在提高效率、经济自由和优质教育上，并对外国直接投资和贸易保持开放，从而将潜在增长率从6%提高到8%。

What are the major concerns in the global economy? Are the problems facing middle-income countries like India unique and how they should deal with them?

全球经济的主要担忧是什么？印度这样的中等收入国家所面临的问题是独特的吗？应该如何解决这些问题？

In summarizing the problems facing the global economy, it is useful to think of the world as consisting of low-income countries, emerging markets, and advanced economies. The difficulties that each group is facing are distinct. Policy makers in advanced economies such as those in the Euro Area have brought inflation down and are now again worried about sluggish growth because of adverse demographics and slowing productivity growth. You can call this the problem of secular stagnation. In middle-income countries the problem is that, aside from a few exceptions like China, growth rates have not been high or steady enough for quick convergence to the living standards of advanced economies. We call it the middle-income trap. Low-income countries--mostly in Africa but also countries like Afghanistan, Yemen and Syria--have not been doing well since the mid-2010s. Their GDP growth rates have barely kept up with population growth, so their citizens have experienced zero or negative income growth. They have suffered a lost decade, and the prospects for the next decade are not much better. The global economy is settling down to a rate of growth rate much lower than what it was before the COVID crisis, which was in turn much lower than it was before the global financial crisis. So, with each crisis, the world economy seems to be coming down to a lower growth rate. In the case of middle-income countries that are home to 75% of the world's population, the drop in GDP growth is especially rapid: from an annual average of 6% in the 2000s to 5% in the 2010s to a projected 4% in the 2020s.

在总结全球经济面临的问题时，可以把世界看作是由低收入国家、新兴市场和发达经济体组成的。每个群体面临的困难各不相同。欧元区等发达经济体的政策制定者已经降低了通胀，现在又开始担心不利的人口结构和生产率增长放缓导致的经济增长乏力。可以称之为长期停滞问题。在中等收入国家，问题在于，除了像中国这样的少数例外，增长率还不够高或稳定，无法迅速向发达经济体的生活水平趋同。我们称之为中等收入陷阱。低收入国家——主要在非洲，也包括阿富汗、也门和叙利亚等国——自2010年代中期以来表现不佳。他们的GDP增长率几乎跟不上人口增长，因此他们的公民经历了零或负收入增长。他们经历了失去的十年，未来十年的前景也好不到哪里去。世界经济增长率正稳定在比新冠疫情前低得多的水平，而新冠疫情前的增长率也比全球金融危机前低得多。因此，每次危机发生，世界经济似乎都会降至更低的增长率。对于占世界人口75%的中等收入国家来说，GDP增长的下降尤其迅速：从2000年代的年均6%到2010年代的5%，再到本世纪20年代预计的4%。

So, what’s the way forward? What can middle-income economies do to reverse this dismal trend?

We have just completed a serious inquiry into this in the latest World Development Report. We have tried to distill the lessons from successful developers like South Korea and Taiwan in Asia, Poland and Hungary in Europe, and Chile and Uruguay in Latin America. These countries encouraged private investment by kee inflation down and making things easier for enterprises, they brought in new technologies from abroad and made them widely available domestically (we call this infusion), and they displayed both patience and discipline in timing the shift to innovation-led development. China has also been doing many of the same things and there are signs that countries like India and Vietnam are also working towards a good mix of policies to encourage investment, infusion and innovation. What is working against today's middle-income economies is that they are facing both a more difficult external environment--growing protectionism in advanced economies and rising concerns about climate change--and domestic difficulties like record levels of debt and rapidly aging populations.

那么，未来的方向是什么？中等收入经济体可以做些什么来扭转这一令人沮丧的趋势？

我们刚刚在最新的《世界发展报告》中完成了对这一问题的认真调查。我们试图从亚洲的韩国和台湾地区，欧洲的波兰和匈牙利，以及拉丁美洲的智利和乌拉圭等成功经济体那里汲取经验。这些国家抑制通货膨胀，为企业提供便利，鼓励私人投资，从国外引进新技术并在国内广泛使用（我们称之为“注入”），并在向创新主导型发展转变的时机上表现出耐心。中国也在做许多同样的事情，有迹象表明，印度和越南等国也在努力制定一系列政策，以鼓励投资、注入和创新。对当今中等收入经济体不利的是，它们既面临着更加艰难的外部环境——发达经济体保护主义抬头、对气候变化的担忧日益加剧——也面临着创纪录的债务水平和人口迅速老龄化等国内困难。

印度时报读者的评论：

Citizen

if you remove the covid tax on fuel, there will be an automatic 1-2% growth.

如果取消燃料税，将会自动增长1-2%。

0 0 • Reply • Flag

Anyone talking of demographics of India in a positive sense it talking through their hat.

任何从积极的角度谈论印度人口结构的人都是在胡说八道。

Jayanta

No. Keep doing Hindu Muslim so that BJP can wng

继续搞印度教-MSL分裂，这样人民党就能赢

Dr Vidyadhar Yellutla

It is tough ask as we have congress, and AAP making Himachal Pradesh, like states unsustainable and making Karnataka bankrupt with Sonia-Priyanka tax, rest other states are contributing to GDP, but West Bengal and Talangana again derailing with their cut money programs.

这是一个棘手的问题，因为我们有国大党和平民党，导致喜马偕尔邦等邦不可持续发展，卡纳塔克邦因索尼亚-普里扬卡而破产，其他邦为GDP做出贡献，但西孟加拉邦和塔兰加纳邦的发展再次因削减资金计划而脱轨。

Bala Srinivasan

The World Bank financial expert suggestion of INDIA should increase its projection to 8%growth rate it should be also involving JOB GROWTH oriented to cut INDIAN YOUTHS UNEMPLOYMENT rate significantly.How INDIA addresses this objective will determine not just economic progress but global perspective of INDIA.

世界银行金融专家建议，印度应该把经济增长率预测提高到8%，还应该以就业增长为导向，大幅降低印度年轻人的失业率。印度实现这一目标不仅将决定印度的经济进步，还将决定印度的全球视野。

Sundaresan Balakrishnan

India's growth is essentially the growth of South India. TN and the South has invested a lot on education and they are contributing which allows India to shine. The bulk of the population growth is in the North with no progress in educational end and hence minimal contribution other than at the low end of the economic scale.

印度的增长本质上是南印度的增长。泰米尔纳德邦和南部在教育上投入了大量资金，他们的贡献让印度发光。大部分的人口增长在北方，教育方面没有任何进展，因此北方除了经济规模低之外，贡献也很小。

1 2 • Reply • Flag

jobless growth?

失业增长吗?

siddheshshivraj3534

Income inequality + taxation of everything = low consumer confidence

收入不平等+对一切征税=消费者信心低落

aadilsattar391

As a middle class more than 50% of salary goes into tax and loan repayment due to high interest rates.

由于高利率，中产阶级超过50%的工资用于纳税和偿还贷款。

ShounakDebnath-ef9fn

What the hell is the govt doing with our taxes … literally giving freebies in states like Maharashtra and loans to failed state like Kolkata … this govt must b held responsible for the messy education as well … where other countries have paced themselves and grown their economy multifold we are still struggling with poor infrastructure and low class education and unhealthy air … despite giving taxes similar to Europe

政府到底用我们的税款做了什么，给马哈拉施特拉邦这样的邦提供免费补贴，给加尔各答这样的失败城市提供贷款，政府也必须对教育失败负责。其他国家已经加快了发展速度，经济增长了好几倍，我们仍然在基础设施落后、教育水平低下、空气不健康等问题上挣扎，尽管我们的税收和欧洲差不多

Dm564ny

every good things that happens Modi is to be credited, every bad things that happen Nirmala sitaraman is blamed. ofcourse she's the finance minister.

but what you don't understand is that BJ Party is highly centralized, she just merely holds the post every financial decision is taken by the PMO altogether, so the whole Modi gov. is to be blamed. also mandir masjid krte raho, communal harmony ki maa behen karo. bhugatna toh hm sabko padega.

发生的每一件好事都要归功于莫迪，发生的每一件坏事都要归咎于财政部长西塔拉曼。你不明白，印度人民党是高度的，她只是担任财政部长，其实所有的财政决策都是由总理做出的，所以应该受到指责的是整个莫迪政府。

abhijitgupta9031

The lady taxes even the medical insurance

这位女士甚至对医疗保险征税

imtiazmohammad9548

Only NRI'S are happy under BJP rule as rupee hits low value

在人民党统治下，卢比贬值了，只有海外印度裔感到高兴

exploreandunravel5773

Adani ambani growth rate should be Good .

阿达尼和安巴尼的财富增长率应该不错。

abhijeet7153

When People don't have bread to eat...

Then people can eat cream cake....

人们没有面包吃的时候，可以吃奶油蛋糕啊

ItsYoungche

If agriculture is doing well why is the price of vegetables increasing day by day?

如果农业领域表现好，为什么蔬菜的价格一天比一天高呢？

jeevanreddy9895

Someone explain me 1 thing:

Shenzhen and Mumbai has similar GDP but how come Shenzhen looks so beautiful and clean in terms of traffic management,good roads,waste management.

What did they do with all those tax

谁能给我解释一下：

深圳和孟买的GDP差不多，但深圳怎么在交通、道路和废物管理方面做得那么好，看起来如此美丽干净。

孟买用税款干嘛了？

Rocky-pz8px

I expect a 8-9% in Q3.. bcoz the sheer spending in October due to Diwali was huge this time.. i hope we do better.. but govt must must focus on tax rate cuts.. nd RBI must cut repo rate too..

我预计第三季度增长8-9%。因为这次排灯节，10月份的消费是巨大的。我希望我们做得更好…但政府必须努力减税，印度央行也必须下调回购利率…

qwertyasd6026

Nirmala tai: Rupee is not falling, Dollar is becoming stronger..

财政部长：不是卢比贬值，是美元正在走强。

chutzpahtalks

1. No income tax is applicable for income less than 20lakh rupees in a year.

2. Lowering GST for food essentials including all kind of products.

3. Lowering interest rate for Housing sector and Personal finance

4. Implement free health care for all.

5. Lowering LPG , PETROLEUM prices

6. Lowering Toll rates

7. Lowering Local body tax all kind of tax.

8. Implement One nation one tax to improve the economy

1. 年收入低于200万卢比的人不缴纳所得税。

2. 降低包括各种产品在内的食品必需品的商品及服务税。

3. 降低住房部门和个人理财利率

4. 实施全民免费医疗保健。

5. 降低液化石油气、石油价格

6. 降低过路费

7. 降低地方税和各种税种。

8. 实行全国统一税率，促进经济发展

tlewisin

Taxes like Europe facilities like ...

税率和欧洲一样高，基础设施和非洲一样差

asolomon70

This government suffers from credibility issues for the figures it declares. GDP when calculated correctly is around 3%. Real rates are negative and coupled with high unemployment this does not paint a rosy picture for the country. Politician’s have free electricity, free transport, housing, medical and are paid handsomely at 7th Pay Commission rates. The only people at the short end of the stick are the citizens of the country

本届政府公布的数据存在可信度问题。如果计算正确，GDP在3%左右。实际增长率为负，再加上高失业率，国家的情况很差。政客们享受免费的电力，免费的交通，住房，医疗，并有丰厚的报酬。唯一吃亏的是这个国家的公民

shaikhasif3853

Inflation is skyroketing,

Unemployment too high,

Taxation too high

even 5.4% growth rate seem not real

通货膨胀正在飙升，失业率过高，税收过高，甚至5.4%的增长率看起来都不真实。