What Declining Fertility Means For Asia's Most Populous Countries | Shifting Horizons | China, India

生育率下降对亚洲人口最多的国家意味着什么？

China’s decades-long plummeting fertility rate has led to projections that its 1.4 billion population will shrink by more than half in just 75 years’ time. Meanwhile, in India, fertility rates in certain areas have dropped to below the ideal replacement level, and Indonesia threatens to follow suit.  Journalist Sruthi Gottipati travels across Asia’s three most populous countries to understand the implications of these demographic trends on these countries’ futures.

中国几十年来不断下降的生育率，引起了这样一种预测，中国14亿人口将在75年内减少一半以上。与此同时，在印度，某些地区的生育率已降至理想的更替水平以下，印度尼西亚也有可能步其后尘。记者斯鲁蒂走遍亚洲人口最多的三个国家，了解人口趋势对这些国家未来的影响。

From attending a traditional Javanese baby shower in Indonesia, to joining some sari shoppers in India, to learning what the ‘DINK’ lifestyle means in China, Sruthi hears from young people themselves on the factors that are sha their decisions on whether to have children. Through conversations with demographers and economists, Sruthi uncovers the hard data behind these considerations, as well as the economic implications to nations if their fertility rates continue to decline.

从参加印尼传统的爪哇婴儿送礼会，到在印度加入一些纱丽购物者的队伍，再到了解中国“丁克”生活方式，斯鲁蒂从年轻人那里听到了影响他们决定是否要孩子的因素。通过与人口统计学家和经济学家的对话，斯鲁蒂揭示这些考虑背后的硬数据，以及如果生育率继续下降对国家的经济影响。

以下是外国网友的评论：

Nick-pc9tf

she asked the daughter in front of her mom and grandma if she wants to get married. Of course she’s going to go ‘hell yea!’. With her friends it’ll be ‘hell no!’  We’re Asian, we know how to survive the family

当着妈妈和奶奶的面问女儿是否想结婚，她当然会说：“好啊！”。当着她的朋友，她会说“绝对不！”。我们是亚洲人，我们知道如何在家庭中生存下去。

satriaamiluhur622

Because in asia you don't just marry your spouse, you also marry their family. I'm from indonesia and i've seen enough parasitic relationship where family's burden (debt, mortgage etc) suddenly falls to their daughter/son in law. Also many cases where retired parents just don't work anymore, and their kids must take the financial burden. How can you expect young people to raise kids in such a toxc society?

因为在亚洲，你嫁娶的不仅是配偶，还有他们的家人。我来自印度尼西亚，我见过太多的寄生关系，家庭的负担（债务、抵押贷款等）突然落到了他们的女儿/女婿身上。还有很多情况下，退休的父母不再工作了，他们的孩子必须承担经济负担。在这样一个有毒的社会里，你怎么能指望年轻人抚养孩子呢？

easontiong

as an individual I see no harm having no children but many benefits, population is a Government problem not mine

作为个人，我认为不生孩子没有坏处，反而有很多好处。人口是政府的问题，不是我的问题

Mr_Pussi

Asia is overpopulated. So declining population is good for now. This scenario is only problematic for Western countries who look for cheap labour in Asia. Let them cry.

亚洲人口过剩。所以人口减少现在是好事。这种情况只会给那些在亚洲寻找廉价劳动力的西方国家带来问题，让他们哭去吧。

arunsubramanian7949

Less congestion, less crowding, no immigrants to Europe and americas leading to their collapse. Asia will thrive

更少的人口意味着更少的拥堵，更少的拥挤，没有移民到欧洲和美洲，导致他们崩溃。亚洲将繁荣发展

A.CMc1997

If governments want birthrates to soar, at least give us, the current group of adults, something to help in starting a family. I am currently 28 and single for a few years now. My parents are concerned as it had been years since I introduce someone I am dating and they are eagerly waiting for grandchildren. I also want to start a family of my own but with how costly it is to raise a child now and to even own a home, it makes me disilusioned. I would rather die alone than subject any of my future children to a childhood where I would not be able to provide for them.

如果政府希望出生率飙升，至少要给我们这群成年人一些帮助组建家庭的东西。我现在28岁，单身好多年了。我的父母很担心，因为相亲很多年了，他们急切地等待抱孙子。我也想建立自己的家庭，但现在抚养一个孩子甚至拥有一个房子都很昂贵，这让我的幻想破灭了。我宁愿孤独地死去，也不愿让我未来的任何一个孩子度过一个悲惨的童年。

yogasetiaone

no money, no baby, & no kids

没钱，不生孩子

jjackmanster

There is no "demographic dividend" unless the working age people are actually working, healthy, and literate. Other considerations are environmental degradation in all its forms. Quality of life is more important for all of us than quantity.

没有“人口红利”，除非适龄劳动人口有工作，身体健康，有文化。其他因素包括各种形式的环境退化。对我们所有人来说，生活的质量比人口数量更重要。

user-jt3dw6vv4x

It's insane to think that 1/3 of India's population growth will come from only 2 states and that Bihar's fertility rate will only dip below replacement level by 2039 while Kerala's fertility rate dipped below replacement level in 1987. I don't understand how a country can be so severely lop sided in development. This is like comparing two different nations and their development. I mean India's states really are like countries. This isn't a good thing for India. There will be serious issues when entire states (which have their own ethnic groups) begin to disappear while other states (with different ethnic groups) continue to grow in size. South China Morning Post and BBC recently published articles about this and from what I understand, India seems more and more like a country made up of smaller countries. As the lady said however, maybe this might help India become more united and integrated because the different groups will be mixng together unlike before.

印度三分之一的人口增长来自两个邦。比哈尔邦的生育率到2039年才会降至更替水平以下，喀拉拉邦的生育率在1987年就降至更替水平以下，这是疯狂的。我不明白一个国家的发展怎么会如此严重地不平衡。这就像比较两个不同的国家和他们的发展。我的意思是，印度各邦就像不同国家一样。这对印度来说不是一件好事。当整个邦（有自己的民族）开始消失，而其他邦（有不同的民族）继续扩大规模时，将会出现严重的问题。《南华早报》和BBC最近发表了关于这方面的文章，据我所知，印度似乎越来越像一个由各个小国组成的国家。正如女士所说，也许这可能有助于印度变得更加团结和融合，因为不同的群体将混合在一起。

serenity4860

It's such a burden to get married in India in the first place. It's not called "the big fat wedding" for nothing. People don't want marriages anymore, they just want to be bought and sold in the name of outdated customs for societal show-offs... much evident by the exponentially rising divorce rates and the lack of suitable quality employment in the country.

首先，在印度结婚是一种负担。“盛大婚礼”可不是白叫的。人们不再想要婚姻了，过时的习俗，只是为了炫耀。这个国家的离婚率呈指数级上升，缺乏好的就业机会，这一点很明显了。

localguy123

Its selfish to have children if you are financially unstable. As someone who has visited India and seen the level of poverty faced by your citizens, population declining seems like a blessing.

如果你的经济不稳定，生孩子是自私的。作为一个去过印度的人，我看到了你们公民所面临的贫困水平，人口下降似乎是一件好事。

ahnnyeo

Look at these economist, they more worry about shrinking cheap labour force than the reason of why none want child anymore.

That actually highlight the main reason of why we are aging vast.

看看这些经济学家，他们更担心的是廉价劳动力的萎缩，而不想想为什么大家都不生孩子。这实际上突出了我们老龄化的主要原因。

Ruth-os4mi

Population collapse . . .

Good : For families.

Bad : For corporations.

人口崩溃……

对家庭来说是好事，对企业来说是坏事。

yogasetiaone

As the young generation in Indonesia, most young families choose to have one child or be childfree...

大多数印尼年轻家庭选择生一个孩子或不生孩子……

user-gw9yx2wx5g

The world is over populated. It is better to have high quality than quantity citizens

世界人口过多。拥有高素质的公民比拥有大量的普通公民要好

nightbladewolfx9529

2023? We really don’t need to be having more kids

我们真的不需要再生孩子了

Ralph-i5m

The population decline of the three countries mentioned is actually not surprising.  History shows definitely when a country moves from an agrarian system to one of industrialization, birth rates decline due to several reasons. Cost of living increases, city/suburban dwellers don't need children as do farmers and the introduction of feminism.

上述三个国家的人口下降其实并不奇怪。历史明确地表明，当一个国家从农业社会转向工业化社会时，出生率会由于几个原因而下降。生活成本增加，城市/郊区居民不想要孩子，农民也不想要孩子，女权主义的兴起也导致不想要孩子。

hashimina_

Imo china being wise here, most people mostly men decided to be single because of high unemployment rate... if china has low unemployment rate the better chances.

As the economist say: If you're not financially stable, you cannot move to another class and stay in lower class

在我看来，中国是明智的，因为高失业率，大多数人（主要是男性）决定单身…如果中国的失业率低，机会会更好。

正如经济学家所说：如果你的经济状况不稳定，你就不可能升到另一个阶层，只能继续呆在较低的阶层

nuukizmir

1950, Germany population 7 crore.

2024, Germany population 8 crore.

1950, India population 34 crore.

2024, India population 145 crore.

Result: Germany is a happy and very rich country.

Many Indians are still suffering from poverty and hunger.

And media talked about the population collapse in India.

1950年，德国人口7000万。

2024年，德国人口8000万。

1950年，印度人口3.4亿。

2024年，印度人口14.5亿。

结果：德国是一个幸福而富有的国家。

很多印度人仍然遭受贫困和饥饿。

媒体却谈论印度的人口崩溃。

ind

The Total fertility rate of Tamil Nadu is 1.4 Which is the lowest among the Bigger states in india. It is really alarming to see the population shift and migration happening faster than its expected.

泰米尔纳德邦的总生育率是1.4，是印度大邦中最低的。人口转移和移民的速度比预期的要快，这确实令人担忧。

wawaldekidsfun4850

However, it leans heavily on urban perspectives, overlooking rural realities where economic and cultural pressures often drive higher birth rates.

这是城市的视角，忽视了农村的现实，在农村，经济和文化压力往往会推高出生率。

pardeeptandon

Our Demographic dividend has become a curse.

我们的人口红利已经成为一种诅咒。

silafaupaulmeredith7251

It is a global issues with western countries also.  Use of AI and immigration from Africa would also help.  India can benefit but I do not believe they have the institutional backbone to thrive like China

这也是一个全球性问题，西方国家也面临。人工智能的使用和来自非洲的移民也会有所帮助。印度可以从中受益，但他们没有像中国那样蓬勃发展的制度支柱

tapanthakur

This in wonderful news for India. We have far too many people.

这对印度来说是个好消息，人太多了。

jamieatelier

We have over population problems…soon there will be no animals on land and no fish in ocean

我们面临人口过剩的问题，很快陆地上将没有动物，海洋中将没有鱼

FraySweety

Actually, Indonesia still has many couples with three or more children. The thing is, sane young people here are starting to marry late.

实际上，印度尼西亚仍然有许多夫妇有三个或更多的孩子。问题是，理智的年轻人开始晚婚了。

harkritsingh1896

In india marriage is not a choice it is a complusion by the society and also having kids is not a choice it is mandatory and in rural parts people want a boy it is common for people to have even 5-6 children in less devloped states in india

在印度，结婚不是一种选择，而是社会强制的，生孩子也不是一种选择，是强制性的，在农村地区，人们想要生男孩，在印度欠发达地区，生5-6个孩子是很常见的

santoshonlyss

Population bomb is real in india. Even for Kerala, the population is still growing and would continue to grow even after 4 decades of hitting 2.1 tfr. Besides, the population density is 3 times that of India.

人口爆炸在印度是真实存在的。即使在喀拉拉邦，人口仍在增长，即使在40年后达到2.1亿人，人口仍将继续增长。此外，该邦的人口密度是印度的3倍。

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