Rupee to breach 86/$, RBI governor faces 1st major challenge

卢比兑美元即将跌破86，印度央行行长面临首个重大挑战

MUMBAI: RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra faces his first major challenge after taking office last month. The rupee is set to breach the 86 level this week as the dollar strengthens against most currencies. This will impede efforts to support GDP growth, which is expected to slow to 6.4 per cent in FY25, through lower interest rates.

孟买：印度储备银行行长桑杰·马尔霍特拉上个月上任后面临首次重大挑战。随着美元对大多数货币走强，本周卢比兑美元将突破86。这将阻碍通过降息支持GDP增长的努力，预计印度GDP增长率在2025财年将放缓至6.4%。

"The rupee has continued to touch lifetime lows in each of the last few sessions. Pressure on the currency has stemmed from a stronger dollar and is further compounded by patchy FPI inflows. The pressure on the rupee is likely to persist in the near term as uncertainty over US rates and government policies is expected to keep the dollar strong," said Aditi Gupta, economist at Bank of Baroda, in a report she co-authored.

印度巴罗达银行（Bank of Baroda）经济学家阿迪蒂•古普塔在她与人合著的一份报告中表示：“在过去的几个交易日里，卢比一直在触及有史以来的低点。卢比面临的压力源于美元走强，而外国直接投资（FDI）流入的不均衡进一步加剧了这一压力。由于美国利率和政府政策的不确定性预计将使美元保持强势，短期内卢比面临的压力可能会持续下去。”

While RBI has been intervening in the forex market by selling dollars in the spot and forward markets (see graphic), the collateral damage has been the draining of liquidity, resulting in an increase in overnight interest rates.

虽然印度央行一直通过在现货和远期市场出售美元来干预外汇市场，但附带损害是流动性枯竭，导致隔夜利率上升。

US Treasuries plunged on Friday after data showed the labour market grew in Dec, sending the 30-year bond yield above 5 per cent for the first time in more than a year. This added to the recent selloff in global bonds as investors grow anxous over lingering inflation and widening fiscal deficits, including in the US, as President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.

上周五，在数据显示12月份劳动力市场增长后，美国国债价格暴跌，推动30年期国债收益率一年多来首次突破5%。随着候任总统唐纳德•特朗普重返白宫，投资者对持续的通胀和不断扩大的财政赤字（包括美国）越来越感到焦虑，这加剧了近期全球债券的抛售。

According to a Stanchart report co-authored by Anubhuti Sahay, the timeline for a 50 basis points repo rate cut has been revised to April-June from February-April due to tight rupee liquidity conditions.

根据Anubhuti Sahay共同撰写的渣打银行报告，由于卢比流动性紧张，50个基点的回购利率下调时间表已从2月至4月修改为4月至6月。

Stanchart expects a 50 basis points cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut at the Feb MPC meeting, citing expectations of a further widening in the liquidity deficit. Estimates suggest that the headline liquidity deficit could increase to Rs 1.9-2.5 lakh crore by the end of FY25 if left unaddressed.

渣打预计，2月货币政策委员会会议将下调现金准备金率（CRR）50个基点，理由是流动性赤字预计将进一步扩大。据估计，如果不加以解决，到25财年末，总体流动性赤字可能会增加到1.9万亿至2.5万亿卢比。

The report also lowers its dollar-rupee forecast by 175 paise to 86.25 by March 2025, attributing the change to RBI's increased tolerance for a stronger dollar and weaker balance of payments flows.

该报告还将美元兑卢比的汇率预测下调了175派斯，至2025年3月的86.25卢比，并将这一变化归因于印度央行对美元走强和国际收支流动减弱的容忍度提高。

印度时报读者的评论：

Guy Max

It's already breached. Not 'to breach'. USD to INR is 86.20 Indian Rupee. The percentage drop since LIAR PM became PM has been ~25%. LIAR PM was complaining a lot about MMS government about the fall when it fell to ₹69 in 2013. Will he complain about his own government now?

已经被突破了，不是将要。美元兑印度卢比现在是86.20。自从骗子当上总理以来，汇率降了25%。骗子总理在2013年卢比跌至69卢比时，对辛格政府抱怨连连。现在是他领导的政府，他还会抱怨吗？

Old Master

I was promised to be 40 rs under NDA from 60 rs under UPA. Looks like BJP doesnt know which direction it should go so that it gets to 40

人民党承诺会把卢比兑美元提升至1美元兑换40卢比，而在国大党领导下是60卢比。看起来人民党不知道应该朝哪个方向发展，才能达到40。

aman H

When rupee declines the pride of nation decline : feku

卢比贬值时，国民的自豪感就会下降

Anirban Ghosh

When I was questioning the government about this, my own countrymen abused me saying Jada problem Hain toh go to Pakistan and Bangladesh. Well, now take it what modiji is giving it to you.

当我质疑政府时，国人辱骂我，好吧，现在接受莫迪给你们带来的一切吧。

Neer Nayan

The resl size. Amidst all the ongoing fakery, fudging bigmouthing and bravadoes, we must accept our actual place amongst other nations.

什么都造假，虚张声势，接受我们在其他国家心目中的实际地位吧。

ho

When you invite an illiterate to hold the position of PM, believe these things to be normal

选择一个文盲担任总理，这些都是正常的

V Ravikanth

In one way that we have to thank Modi his rule of ten plus years making the world shivering in development to become number one nation in economy, technology and all progressive things in the world provided that he to rule for another term

在某种程度上，我们必须感谢莫迪。他十多年来的统治，使印度成为经济和技术第一的国家，希望他能再执政一届。

Radheshyam Sitaram

"Breach Rs 86 due to Stronger dollar." What about Afghani, Pakistani Rupee, and other currencies? Indian rupee is getting weaker against these currencies if you see its performance in the last 12 months. Modi, Nirmala, and their bhakts need to wake up.

“由于美元走强，突破了86。”阿富汗、巴基斯坦卢比和其他货币呢？如果你看看过去12个月的表现，印度卢比对这些货币越来越弱。莫迪、西塔拉曼和他们的信徒需要觉醒了。

4 0 • Reply • Flag

Thats why we need educated leaders like Mr Manmohan

这就是为什么我们需要像曼莫汉•辛格这样受过高等教育的领导人

2 0 • Reply • Flag

what challenge ? the rupee is the fastest growing indian currency in india and the world . one more achievement of the modi ji government ji . keep up the good work

什么挑战？卢比是世界上增长最快的货币。这莫迪政府的又一项成就，再接再厉

Madhukar Barve

A ) Sack the finance minister. B ) Increase the Dollar Deposit Rates at least by 1 % for shorter maturity. C ) Give extraedd Depreciation to corporate tax payers: `Development Rebate Reserve`, I think first introducd by T.T. Krishnamachari. then finance minister. D ) Stop all the Nonsense of various `Freebeebs.

A) 解雇财政部长。B) 短期美元存款利率至少提高1%。C) 给予企业纳税人额外税收优惠。D) 停止发放各种“免费品”。

Supriya Verma

Repeat after me 10 times - Rupee is not falling, the Dollar is getting stronger. If you do not repeat it for 10 times, I will increase the GST on popcorn to 28%

跟我重复10遍——卢比没有贬值，是美元正在走强。如果你不重复10次，我将把爆米花的商品服务税提高到28%

3 0 • Reply • Flag

Only solution is Exports Exports Exports, Make in India has to be followed and enforced in true spirit and shouldn’t be circumvented by importing goods from china in CKD and assembling here and rebranding the goods here. I am sure that the GoI is aware of this malpractice but it needs to be seen what action it takes against the tsunami of imports by India from China..!!

唯一的解决办法是出口，印度制造必须遵循和执行真正的精神，不应该从中国进口商品，在本地组装然后重新贴牌。我确信印度政府意识到了这种弊端，但需要看看它对印度从中国进口的“行为”采取了什么行动！！

1 1 • Reply • Flag

GOOD FOR BHARAT’s EXPORTS. WE WILL GET MORE RUPEES. MODI JI HAI MKIN HAI. HOPEFULLY IT WILL RESCH RS 100 SOON

对印度的出口有利。我们会得到更多的卢比。莫迪厉害，希望能很快达到100。

Balaji Panchapakesan

RBI stands for Rukawat Bank of India. INR is in steep decline. Inflation will catch up along with the rupee. Your food prices will hit sky high, Indian economy will become useless.

印度卢比正在急剧贬值。通货膨胀将随着卢比的升值而加剧。你们的食品价格将飙升，印度经济将崩溃。

Parichay Gupta

With the 'projected' nominal GDP growth expectation at 6.4%, real GDP growth considering Dollar Terms and Inflation Rate will be close to 0%. This is what the state of Indian Economy has come down to.

“预计”的名义GDP增长预期为6.4%，考虑到美元和通货膨胀率，实际GDP增长将接近0%。这就是印度经济的现状。

Sankar Iyer

Perhaps, the Repo rate should be hiked to support the Rupee. Given the subscriptions to the Main Board and SME IPOs, there is no dearth of liquidity in the system.

或许，应该提高回购利率以支撑卢比。考虑到主板和中小企业IPO的认购情况，该系统并不缺乏流动性。

Chill Pill

Does 90% of the massive 1.5 billion population even understand what that means or its implications? Do the god-like politicians and raja biiness people care?

15亿人口中有90%的人明白这意味着什么或有什么影响吗？神一般的政客们在乎吗？

2 3 • Reply • Flag

Focus on Delhi elections is the first priority of BJP so they can overhaul India as a whole and Modi remains PM till death but the issue is that by the time Modi try his next election campaign this country is poorer than Somalia in terms of per capita among general population

关注德里的选举是人民党的首要任务，这样他们就能彻底改革整个印度，莫迪会一直连任总理到死。但问题是，当莫迪下一次竞选时，这个国家的人均人口会比索马里还穷。

Ilias

When the US prints money it causes inflation to all currencies. The worst hit are the net importers. US keeps printing money eqch year as they have deficit of 2 Trillion each year. Since China is net exporter it does not need to borrow dollars much but gins dollars. Hence their currency is not as impacted. However their dollar holdings value declines so they pay a price too. Most people don't realize that US is collecting hafta from every country by deteriorating their currencies. The big shame is that countries have not been serious abou alternate trading mechanism even after so many sanctions. Now the de dollarization is gaining momentum but it will take time.

当美国印钞时，它会导致所有货币的通胀。受打击最严重的是净进口国。美国每年都在印钱，因为他们每年有2万亿美元的赤字。由于中国是净出口国，它不需要借入太多美元，而是收获美元。因此，他们的货币没有受到太大影响。然而，他们持有的美元价值下降，因此他们也付出了代价。大多数人没有意识到，美国通过让每个国家的货币贬值，从每个国家收取一半的关税。最大的耻辱是，即使在施加如此多的制裁之后，各国也没有认真对待替代贸易机制。现在，去美元化的势头正在增强，但这需要时间。

4 1 • Reply • Flag

you think the US is just printing money? you have no idea that US economy is also robust and unbeatable at the moment..

你认为美国只是在印钞票？你不知道美国经济目前也是强劲的，无与伦比的…

Ilias

Us debt is 36 trillion. They have debt of 2 trillion each year which is increasing as the principal amount keeps increasing. Whatever growth you see is because of borrowing. And people around the world use US currency which increases its value and decreases their own. Its like saying I borrowed money and gave party .

美国的债务是36万亿美元。他们每年有2万亿的债务随着本金的增加而增加。你看到的任何增长都是因为借贷。世界各地的人们都使用美元，这使得美元升值，而他们自己的货币贬值。这就像我借钱开派对一样。

Alok

China's inflation rate has averaged 2% for the last 2 decades & their currency has remained the same as it was in 2004. In fact it appreciated in the intervening years. So the purchasing power of the average Chinese citizen has not deteriorated much. In comparison, India's average inflation is 6-7% and the rupee has depreciated by over 50 percent in the last 2 decades. Indians have seen their *purchasing power* diminish significantly.

在过去的20年里，中国的通货膨胀率平均为2%，而他们的货币却和2004年一样。事实上，在这之后的几年里，它一直在升值。因此，普通中国公民的购买力并没有大幅下降。相比之下，印度的平均通货膨胀率为6-7%，卢比在过去20年里贬值了50%以上。印度人的“购买力”大幅下降。

Alok

Trade deficit is at record highs. Rupee keeps sliding to a new low almost every day and yet the media does not dare to question the Govt . This is managed depreciation or devaluation of the Rupee by the RBI and Govt to benefit exporters and tax the citizens with *imported inflation* . Yes *Inflation is also a TAX* , on your purchasing power .

贸易逆差创历史新高。卢比几乎每天都在跌至新低，但媒体却不敢质疑政府。这是印度储备银行和政府管理下的卢比贬值，目的是让出口商受益，并以“输入性通胀”向公民征税。通货膨胀对你的购买力也是一种税。

继续阅读：卢比   汇率   通货膨胀   印度央行   美元

此文由 三泰虎 编辑，未经允许不得转载！：首页 > 资讯 » 卢比兑美元即将跌破86，印度央行面临首个重大挑战，印网友：中国公民的购买力并没有大幅下降