印度2025年联邦预算，西塔拉曼的中庸之道，能吸引德里和比哈尔邦选民吗

Union Budget 2025: Will FM Nirmala Sitharaman's middle path lure Delhi, Bihar voters?

2025年联邦预算：印度财政部长尼尔马拉·西塔拉曼的中庸之道，能吸引德里和比哈尔邦选民吗？

A Budget is as much a political as an economic exercise. And you didn't need to look any farther than this one for evidence.

Delhi votes on Wednesday, Bihar in Oct or Nov this year. The Budget has gone the extra nine yards to woo them. For Delhi - India's richest city by per capita income and with a large middle class straddling govt employees, private sector and business - the big tax giveaway was a loud & clear signal.

预算编制既是一项经济活动，也是一种政治行为。而本次预算就是明证，无需旁征博引。

德里将于周三举行选举，比哈尔邦则在今年10月或11月投票。此次预算可谓不遗余力地讨好这些地区。德里是印度人均收入最高的城市，拥有庞大的中产阶级群体，涵盖政府雇员、私营企业员工和商业人士。大规模的税收减免，向他们发出了清晰而响亮的信号。

Given that AAP's core voter base is thought to be low-income earners, and amid reports that the capital's middle class is wavering, the Modi govt appears to be ho to tip them over to the side of saffron.

As for Bihar - critical for BJP and ally Nitish Kumar's JDU - the number of times it kept crop up in Nirmala Sitharaman's speech could have left no one in any doubt as to the NDA govt's intent to retain the state. She announced the setting up of a Makhana Board and a National Institute of Food Technology, expansion of IIT-Patna, promotion of tourism around key Buddhist centres, and support for the Western Kosi canal. And for good measure, she draped herself in a sari with a Madhubani motif - a traditional folk art from Bihar.

All this comes on top of schemes for Bihar in last year's Budget. The political message couldn't have been more unambigous: BJP-JDU will take the fight to RJD-Cong.

鉴于人们认为平民党（AAP）的核心选民群体是低收入者，且有报道称德里的中产阶级选民立场摇摆不定，莫迪政府似乎希望将他们争取到印度人民党（BJP）阵营。

至于比哈尔邦，它对印度人民党及其盟友尼蒂什·库马尔领导的人民党（JDU）至关重要。尼尔马拉·西塔拉曼在预算演讲中多次提及比哈尔邦，这无疑表明全国民主联盟（NDA）政府有意保住该邦。她宣布将成立菱角管理委员会和一所国家食品技术研究所，扩建巴特那印度理工学院，推动主要佛教中心周边的旅游业发展，并支持西科西河运河项目。此外，她还身着带有马图巴尼图案的纱丽，这种图案源自比哈尔邦的传统民间艺术。

这一切都是在去年预算中针对比哈尔邦的各项计划基础上新增的。其中的政治意图再明确不过：印度人民党 - 人民党联盟将与人民党（RJD） - 国大党联盟展开竞争。

印度财政部长尼尔马拉·西塔拉曼发布了最新的一份财政预算。当中包括扩大基建规模，降低黄金进口关税、上调股票交易税等一系列影响国内和国际市场的措施。

在基建方面，西塔拉曼表示，将在阿姆利则-加尔各答工业走廊上，支持在比哈尔邦的加亚发展工业。此外，还将支持道路连通项目的建设，即巴特那-普尔尼亚高速公路、布克萨尔-巴加尔普尔高速公路、菩提迦耶-拉杰吉尔-吠舍利-达尔班加高速公路，以及在布克萨尔的恒河上增加一座双车道桥梁，相关支出的总成本为26000亿卢比。在电力项目，包括在Pirpainti建立一个新的2400兆瓦发电厂，将耗资21400亿卢比。

在刺激消费方面，政府将把黄金和白银的进口税从15%下调至6%，铂金和钯金的进口税则从15.4%下调至6.4%

西塔拉曼还宣布对包括锂在内的25种重要矿产免征进口税。印度一直在探索如何确保锂的供应，锂是一种用于制造电动汽车电池的重要原材料。

以下是印度时报读者得评论：

Kaalmoktha Baanchan
If such a Great Budget does not Lure Delhi voters, the EVMs will

如果这样一份“伟大的”预算都吸引不了德里选民，那电子投票机（EVMs）会做到。

Tilakdhari
This budget was a click bait, to justify n cover up evm fraud in delhi n bihar.
Same like LadkiBehna scheme was a mascot to do massive evm rigging in MH.

这份预算就是个噱头，目的是为德里和比哈尔邦的电子投票机舞弊行为找借口并掩盖真相。就像“姐妹计划”（LadkiBehna scheme）是在马哈拉施特拉邦（MH）大规模操纵电子投票机的幌子一样。

User
you m-eff mughal BJP footlickers will conveniently ignore that border security is controlled by the central govt..and Kejri has been calling for tighter control on border and influx of refugess.. but BJP with its usual evil politics lets in refugees so that it can then blame the opposition states for letting them in for "appeasement politics" and increasing minority voter count as most mughal minds of BJP voters are already convinced that opposition is all "Anti hindu" and 'pro minority' and "pro pak".. they are clueless about the fact that it is the BJP that is actually destroying hindu religion!

你们这些印度人民党舔狗，会选择性忽视边境安全是由中央政府管控这一事实。

凯杰里瓦尔一直呼吁加强边境管控，阻止难民涌入。

但印度人民党却一如既往地玩弄邪恶政治手段，放难民进来，然后指责反对党执政的邦搞“绥靖政治”，放任难民进入以增加少数族裔选民数量。

在大多数印度人民党支持者的狭隘思维里，已经认定反对党都是“反印度教”“亲少数族裔”“亲巴基斯坦”的。他们根本没意识到，实际上是印度人民党在破坏印度教！

parveen kumar
when will we start mass deportation of Rohingya's while other countries are sending back illegal immigrants and we should accomodate them.

其他国家都在遣返非法移民，我们什么时候才能开始大规模驱逐罗兴亚人呢？我们竟然还在接纳他们。

Mudi
More unfounded nonsense. Any evidence that illegal Rohingyas make a substantial vote base in Delhi?

又是毫无根据的胡言乱语。有什么证据可以表明大量罗兴亚人非法滞留德里，并构成了相当规模的选民基础吗？

Rakesh Sharma
User, No one can destroy Hindu religion whether they are Jehadis, Converters or any political party. Time of one religion is over.
Reply01flag

无论是圣战分子、改信他教者还是任何政党，都无法摧毁印度教。单一宗教主宰的时代已经过去了。

Scl Premi
Yes, it is a dream budget for Bihar and the middle class Income Tax payer.

没错，对于比哈尔邦和中产阶级纳税人来说，这是一份理想的预算。

Satish Huria
No worries. Dream will shatter soon with the introduction of new direct tax code.

别担心。随着新的直接税法典出台，美梦很快就会破碎。

Rajagopalan R
If political budget is to be avoided and you want real economy based, bring one country one election. Then there may not be every month election. All states and center will have one election and no monthly election. Then Governments need not have to worry freebie for next four years and concentrate on economy. America,china and Russia have one election once in 4 or 5 years and they concentrate on economic growth. This will bring employment and poor upliftment. Support one country one election every five years. I do not support any party and was in financial sector for 5 decades

如果要避免政治性预算，想要基于真正的经济来制定预算，那就实行全国同步选举。这样就不会每个月都有选举了。所有邦和中央将同时举行选举，而不是每月都有选举。那么政府在接下来的四年里就不必担心为了拉选票而发放福利，可以专注于经济发展。

美国、中国和俄罗斯每4年或5年举行一次选举，他们专注于经济增长。创造就业机会，改善穷人生活。支持每五年举行一次全国同步选举。我不支持任何政党，我在金融领域工作了50年。

Mudi Ji
AAP will win. They have answered questions about governance and policies. No questions like do you like mangoes, who is your best friend and how do you sleep so less All answers he gave are with data and statistics. Do watch it. Now see how aandh bhakts down vote me

平民党（AAP）会赢。他们回答了关于治理和政策的问题。没有那种诸如“你喜欢芒果吗”“谁是你最好的朋友”“你怎么睡得这么少”之类的问题。他们给出的所有答案都有数据和统计支撑。一定要看看。现在看看那些盲目追随者（aandh bhakts）怎么给我点反对票吧。

Rakesh Sharma
Who is more andh bhakt than Jehadis.

有谁比圣战分子更盲目呢。

Qwerty Man
Karma will catch up with Pappis, you can join supreme leader in Delhi jail

因果报应会找上那些人，你可以和最高领导人一起进德里的监狱。

Mudi
People know how BJP is doing cheap politics against AAP. They don't even dare to take the so called liquor scam to trial. 4 years of investigation only and still no trail by feku and co. They also know they have no evidence to take it to trial.

人们知道印度人民党（BJP）是如何对平民党（AAP）进行卑鄙政治手段的。他们甚至不敢将所谓的酒类骗局进行审判。莫迪之流仅仅调查了4年，至今仍未审判。他们也知道自己没有证据进行审判。

drabhishekhirpara Abhishek Hirpara
Seems you are one hell of an andh bhakt here boy..... Wake up its 2025

看起来你在这里就是个十足的盲目追随者。醒醒吧，都2025年了。

Bobby
What a useless point of view, there are elections every 6 months in India. Last year was General elections & so many more elections, were they irrelevant. Pls change your style of journalism, we are fed up

这是无稽之谈，印度每6个月就有选举。去年是大选，还有那么多其他选举，难道它们都无关紧要吗。请改变一下你的新闻报道风格，我们受够了。

Gautam
very much agreed!

非常同意！

Niranjan
That is why ONOE is the best way to go. BUT, opposition does not want it as they can fool people with revdis more often and not just once every five years.

最好得办法是全国同步选举（ONOE）。但是，反对党不想要这样，因为他们可以更频繁地用免费福利忽悠印度民众，而不只是每五年一次。

Rakesh Sharma
NDA is likely to win in Bihar. As regards Delhi, BJP will have to do exceptionally well to win. However, nothing is impossible.

全国民主联盟（NDA）很可能在比哈尔邦获胜。至于德里，印度人民党必须表现得格外出色才能获胜。不过，一切皆有可能。

Sugharpal Singh Raghav
rightly said

说得对。

PETER
PL GET THE ECONOMIST TO CREATE BUDGET: OR BRING SOMEONE WITHBRAIN OFDHIRUBHAI AMBANI. THISBUDGET MADEME CRYBECAUSE OFIGNORING CRYPTO AND ONLINE GAMING, GENERATIVEAI, REASEARCH FUNDING ETCETC. LAWSHOULD BE PRIVATECORPORATE MUSTSPEND 5%OF THEIR REVENUEOR PROFITIN TONEW TECHNOLOGY

请让经济学家来制定预算，或者找个有头脑的人来。这份预算让我想哭，因为它忽视了加密货币、在线游戏、生成式人工智能、研究资金等等。法律应该规定私营企业必须将其收入或利润的5% 用于新技术的研发。

Yoga N Mani
In 2020, Covid19 swept over India, scything down lives by the thousands everyday. No State of India was spared, no street in a State was spared. Diwali came along when every street had a family in mourning.
What did we have happen to us in that grim situation?
The Government announced grant of advance payment of Salary and Loans to Central Government Staff and told them to SPEND the REPAYABLE Advance and Loans on new Jewellery, new Clothes, Sweets and Firecrackers and celebrate Diwali with "traditional gaiety" and "religious fervour"
The Government also requested Private Sector to grant Advance and Loans to their Staff.
The Government exhibited its deep knowledge of Economics by telling Indians that they would do Bharat Mata a favour by drawing Advances and Loans to celebrate Diwali in traditional gaiety because the spurt in demand would lead to an immediate spurt in production and spike in GDP.
People drew Advances and Loans and repaid their personal Loans. Then they went back to wee for their dead.
Covid has left but the Economy is dead. The Rupee capital took flight in small lots from 2019 but there is a steady flow of it out of India now mostly to the US because Uncle Sam issues Green Card to investors. Therefore, Capitalists have also taken flight. They have bought mansions, as Investment
GROWTH of Real GDP has come down from the max of 21.60% in Quarter -ending with June 2021 (when Covid was at its worst) to 4.46% in Oct 2022 (when Covid had left and India was getting ready to Preside over G20) No later data is available but the situation can only be worse than in 2022 because Inflation has cut loose.
Though GDP has been falling, INVESTMENT as % of GDP has remained unchanged, 34.768% in July 2023 and 34.701% in July 2024 (the last data available)
Though GDP is on the decline TAX REVENUE as % of GDP has been falling off. It was 10.25% in Oct 2023. It fell to 9.34% in July 2024
Though GDP is on the decline HOUSEHOLD DEBTS as % of GDP has risen from 9.054% in 2014 (term 1.0) to 11.305% in 2019 (term 2.0) and to 17.417% in 2024 (term 3.0)
How will reducing Tax Slabs and - through it TAX COLLECTION - PUT MONEY IN PEOPLE's HANDS because generation of Jobs will be the first casualty of inadequate Tax collection?
I think Indians need to get over their habitual inertia and give a thought to this novel idea of not collecting enough Revenue to run the Government but people going on a spending spree and causing a spurt in GDP.

2020年，新冠疫情席卷印度，每天都有成千上万人丧生。印度没有一个邦能幸免，邦内的每条街道都未能逃过一劫。排灯节到来时，每条街道上都有家庭在哀悼。

在那种严峻的形势下，我们遭遇了什么呢？

政府宣布向中央政府工作人员提前发放工资和贷款，并告诉他们将这笔需要偿还的预支款和贷款花在新首饰、新衣服、糖果和鞭炮上，以“传统的欢乐氛围”和“宗教热情”来庆祝排灯节。

政府还要求私营企业向员工发放预支款和贷款。

政府向印度民众展示了其对经济学的深刻理解，称他们通过预支和贷款以传统欢乐方式庆祝排灯节是在帮印度母亲的忙，因为需求的激增会立即导致生产的激增和国内生产总值的飙升。

人们支取了预支款和贷款，偿还了个人贷款。然后他们又继续为逝者哭泣。

新冠疫情已经过去，但印度经济却一蹶不振。从2019年起，资本就开始少量外流，而现在更是源源不断地流出印度，大多流向了美国，因为美国政府向投资者发放绿卡。因此，资本家们也纷纷逃离。他们在美国购买豪宅。

实际GDP增长率从2021年6月季度末（新冠疫情最严重时）的最高21.60% 降至2022年10月（新冠疫情结束，印度准备主持二十国集团（G20）峰会时）的4.46%。没有更新的数据了，但情况只会比2022年更糟，因为通货膨胀已经失控。

尽管GDP一直在下降，但投资占GDP的百分比却保持不变，2023年7月为34.768%，2024年7月为34.701%（现有最新数据）。

尽管GDP在下降，但税收收入占GDP的百分比却在下降。2023年10月为10.25%，2024年7月降至9.34%。

尽管GDP在下降，但家庭债务占GDP的比例却从2014年（第一任期）的9.054% 上升到2019年（第二任期）的11.305%，并在2024年（第三任期）升至17.417%。

降低税率，进而减少税收，怎么能让民众手中有钱呢？因为税收不足首先会影响就业机会的创造。

我认为印度人需要克服惯有的惰性，思考一下这个新奇的想法：不收取足够的税收来维持政府运转，却让民众大肆消费以推动GDP增长。

Balram Menon
So it's clear that the intention is to "lure voters" rather than to be "for the people". Proves that the "budget" is an exercise to transfer money from those who work to those who vote.

所以很明显，其意图是“拉拢选民”而不是“为人民服务”。这证明了这份“预算”是一种将资金从劳动者手中转移到选民手中的手段。

PETER
IS ITNOT ANIRONY THATMAX WORKFORCEFOR 4THINDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION-IS INDIANBUT THEY DONOTHAVE ASINGLE GLOBALCOMPANY TO LEADOR RIVALMEGA 7COMPANIES. ISIT NOT ANIRONY -INUSA -GUJARATIS OWN 51%OF ALLHOTELS /MOTELSOF AMERICAAND HAS NOBRAND HOTEL/MOTELOF THEIROWN. WE ARE FOLLOWERS AND NOTLEADERS ANDNOT RISK TAKERS.THE BUDGETMADE PEOPLE OFINDIA MORE COWARDSTHAN CHALLENGING FORONLINE GAMINGCREATORS, CRYPTOMINERS, CRYPTO LEADERS. TOOSAD... THISWAS THECHANCE. THIS WAS THE CHANCE. PL BRING FINANCEDEPT WITH BRAIN OF DHIRUBHAI AMBANI WHO THINKS OUT OF BOX. I AM CRYING .....FOR SUCH AM IMPOTENT BUDGET.

这难道不是一种讽刺吗？第四次工业革命的最大劳动力来自印度，但他们却没有一家全球性公司能引领潮流，或与七大巨头公司竞争。这难道不讽刺吗？

在美国，古吉拉特人拥有美国51% 的酒店/汽车旅馆，却没有一家属于自己品牌的酒店或汽车旅馆。我们只是追随者，不是领导者，也不是敢于冒险的人。

这份预算让印度人变得更加胆小，不敢挑战在线游戏开发者、加密货币矿工、加密货币领导者。太可悲了，这本来是个机会。请让有创新头脑的人来掌管Y印度财政部吧。我为这样一份无力的预算而哭泣

Yoga N Mani

"Every Citizen will exst and function for THE COMMON GOOD; and every Citizen will contribute in scale with his Wealth"
Nehru's India decided that it would be SOCIALISTIC DEMOCRACY. Indira Gandhi MADE India into a Socialistic Democracy. In 1970, still in infancy as PM , she announced Tax of 10% on Income between Rs 5,000 and Rs 10,000. (I remember Secretaries drew Rs 3,000 at that time so Rs 5,000 to Rs 10,000 per month were Plutocrats. ) The Rate went up to 85% for Incomes above Rs 2,00,000 . Indira raised it further to 97.51%. in 1971.
It is usual for a State in the US described as the "Commonwealth of xxx"and IRS makes sure that the Commonwealth contributes to Society as Commonwealth . Rich men fear the Estate Duty . A joke that is prevalent has the IRS asking even the Common American " How much have you in your pocket after paying Tax?" When John Doe replies "About a thousand" IRS says "OK hand that over"
Gertrude Stein the famous American writer spent ten years in Paris. When she returned to the US she said "Don't ask me what France gave me.I feel grateful to France that the Government did not take everything I had"
It was in this money-grabbing US that Trump slashed Corporate Tax by 35% in 2018. Indians called it cronyism but the Cronies ploughed the saved Tax back in Business. USA recorded its HIGHEST EMPLOYMENT RATE IN June 2020 in the midst of Covid.
Unfortunately in India Cronies did not plough back the 37.50% of slashed Tax they received in July 2019. They have been sending the slashed Tax to US. This is the true reason for low Demand in India. The new rate will not benefit many to make a difference.

“每位公民皆应致力于公共福祉，且依据自身财富多寡，按比例为之贡献力量。”

尼赫鲁时代的印度，决意踏上社会主义民主之路。英迪拉·甘地则将印度真正塑造为一个社会主义民主国家。1970 年，初任总理不久的她，宣布对月收入介于 5000 卢比至 10000 卢比之间者，征收 10% 的税赋。（我记得那时秘书的月薪约为 3000 卢比，月入 5000 卢比到 10000 卢比者，在当时属于富豪阶层。）对于月收入超过 20 万卢比的群体，税率更是高达 85%。1971 年，英迪拉再度将其提升至 97.51%。

在美国，被称作“某某联邦”的州屡见不鲜，美国国税局（IRS）会确保联邦以整体之力为社会有所贡献。富人们对遗产税心怀忌惮。有一则广为流传的笑话，讲的是美国国税局甚至会向普通民众发问：“你缴完税之后，兜里还剩多少钱？” 当被问者回答 “大概一千（美元）” 时，国税局便会回应：“行，把那钱交出来。”

著名美国作家格特鲁德·斯泰因曾在巴黎旅居十年。重返美国后，她感慨道：“别问我法国给予了我什么。我感激法国，因为法国政府并未将我所拥有的一切搜刮殆尽。”

正是在这个以敛财闻名的美国，特朗普于 2018 年将企业税大幅削减了 35%。印度人将此举斥为裙带zb主义行径，然而，那些从中受益的群体，却将节省下来的税款重新投入商业领域。2020 年 6 月，即便身处新冠疫情肆虐之际，美国的就业率却达到了极高水平。

遗憾的是，在印度，2019 年 7 月享受了 37.50% 减税优惠的群体，并未将这笔资金重新投入本土。他们不断地把减免的税款输送至美国。这，才是印度市场需求低迷的真正根源。新的税率，难以让众多民众切实受益，进而改变当前的经济局面。