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美国雅虎:中国掌控印尼75%的镍产能引发担忧

China’s control over 75% of Indonesia’s nickel capacity raises concerns

中国掌控印尼75%的镍产能引发担忧

Chinese companies currently control 75% of Indonesia's nickel refining capacity, raising concerns about supply chain resilience, according to a report by US-based global security non-profit the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS).

The ownership by Chinese companies can potentially impact global supply chains for the critical component used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, according to the report.

Global demand for nickel is expected to surge from around three million tonnes (mt) in 2023 to between 5mt and 6mt by 2040, primarily due to the expansion of clean energy technologies.

In 2023, Indonesia and China together produced 65% of the world's refined nickel.

From 2020 to 2023, Indonesia's portion of the worldwide refined nickel market increased from 23% to 27%, primarily as a result of raw nickel export bans implemented in 2014 and 2020.

美国全球安全非营利组织“高级国防研究中心”(C4ADS)发布的一份报告称,中国企业目前掌控着印尼75%的镍精炼产能,这引发了人们对供应链韧性的担忧。

该报告指出,中国企业的这种所有权可能会影响用于电动汽车(EV)电池的关键组件的全球供应链。

全球对镍的需求预计将从2023年的约300万吨激增至2040年的500万至600万吨,这主要是由于清洁能源技术的发展。

2023年,印尼和中国的精炼镍产量占全球总产量的65%。

2020年至2023年间,印尼在全球精炼镍市场的份额从23% 增至27%,这主要得益于该国在2014年和2020年实施的原镍出口禁令。

However, much of this capacity is foreign-owned, with 33 companies holding Indonesia's 8mt refining capacity.

Shareholder overlap tracing revealed that Chinese companies control around three-quarters of this smelting capacity as of 2023.

The report found that Tsingshan Holding Group and Jiangsu Delong Nickel Industry, two Chinese companies, account for more than 70% of Indonesia's refining capacity as of 2023. This ownership concentration raises concerns about industry dominance.

Moreover, by 2030, Indonesia is projected to account for 44% of global refined nickel production.

"As Indonesia aims to use the nickel industry for economic growth, this substantial foreign influence could limit its ability to control and shape the industry for its benefit," the report added.

然而,这其中大部分产能为外资所有,共有33家公司持有印尼800万吨的精炼产能。

股权交叉追踪显示,截至2023年,中国企业控制着约四分之三的冶炼产能。

报告发现,截至2023年,中国的青山控股集团和江苏德龙镍业两家企业占印尼精炼产能的70%以上。这种所有权集中的情况引发了对行业主导地位的担忧。

此外,预计到2030年,印尼将占全球精炼镍产量的44%。

报告还称:“随着印尼旨在借助镍产业实现经济增长,这种巨大的外国影响力可能会限制其为自身利益控制和塑造该产业的能力。”

The dominance of Chinese companies in this sector places US and European automakers at a competitive disadvantage in the global EV market, especially amid increasingly restrictive trade policies with China, the report said.

In an effort to make Indonesian nickel more accessible to the US market, Chinese companies have approached Indonesian and South Korean companies for potential partnerships to reduce their stakes in smelters, reported Reuters.

Tsingshan has begun selling stakes in some of its smelters, including a 30% share of PT Jiu Long Metal Industry to Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang in October.

Indonesian Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated last month that President Prabowo Subianto has formed a task force to develop the downstream mineral industry through domestic financing, aiming to "gradually reduce the perception that foreigners got the most benefits", according to Reuters.

报告指出,中国企业在这一领域的主导地位,使美国和欧洲的汽车制造商在全球电动汽车市场中处于竞争劣势,尤其是在对华贸易政策日益严格的情况下。

据路透社报道,为了让美国市场更容易获得印尼的镍,中国企业已与印尼和韩国企业探讨潜在合作关系,以降低其在冶炼厂的持股比例。

青山控股已开始出售其部分冶炼厂的股份,包括10月份向印尼国有矿业公司阿内卡矿业(Aneka Tambang)出售了PT九龙金属工业公司30%的股份。

据路透社报道,印尼矿业部长巴赫利尔·拉哈达利亚上个月表示,总统普拉博沃·苏比安托已成立一个特别工作组,通过国内融资发展矿产下游产业,旨在“逐步减少外国人获取最大利益的印象”。

以下是美国雅虎读者的评论:

triclops
China is spending money on mine development projects around the world. Nobody else is doing so at anywhere close to the same level. Of course China is going to end up with the majority of production capacity.
Rare earths are an interesting example. China has a near monopoly on refined rare earths. The US mines about 14% of the global supply of rare earths at a mine in California. What does it do with the concentrate? It ships it to China because they have the only plants capable of refining it. Instead of complaining about China's monopoly, build a refinery in the US. But that takes money while complaining is free.

中国在全球各地投资矿山开发项目。没有其他国家能在这方面与中国竞争。当然,中国最终会拥有大部分产能。

稀土就是个有趣的例子。中国几乎垄断了稀土精炼。美国在加利福尼亚的一个矿山开采的稀土约占全球供应量的14%。那它怎么处理这些精矿呢?它把精矿运往中国,目前只有中国有能够提炼稀土的工厂。与其抱怨中国的垄断,不如在美国建一座精炼厂。但建精炼厂需要资金,而抱怨则无需成本在,只要动动嘴就可以。

 

Henry
China invest on humanity, West invest on tools to kill and destroy. Peace upon us.

中国投资造福人类,西方却投资制造杀戮和破坏的工具。愿和平降临。

 

mike Liny
Terrible move doing business with this nationalistic socialistic, with chinese characteristics, regime.

与这个具有特色的民族主义社会主义国家做生意,这步棋太糟糕了。

 

Lollygap
China is the top trading partner for over 120 countries. You must be smarter than all their top economist. Again, what are you credentials?

中国是120多个国家的最大贸易伙伴。看来你比这些国家的顶级经济学家都聪明。话说回来,你有什么资历呢?

 

mike Liny
And for anyone else, this one claims China will eventually top everyone. Encourage you to google this and judge for yourselves:
"CHINA Economy Imploding"
Joe Blog does a good job parsing data.

还有,这个人声称中国最终会超越所有人。建议你们搜索“中国经济崩溃”,自己判断。乔·布洛在解析数据做得不错。

 

mike Liny
So what? You aren't denying they are nationalistic or socialistic. Nor are you denying they bully their neighbours?

Resorting to strawman arguments shows weakness. I could reveal my personal education and economic experiences, but sure you would dismiss me.

那又怎样?你不否认他们是民族主义和社会主义吧。你也不否认他们欺负邻国吧?

歪曲对方观点然后攻击,暴露了你的软弱。我可以透露我的个人教育背景和经济经历,但你肯定会对我不屑一顾。

 

triclops
The US is both nationalistic and we bully our neighbors. Be careful pointing fingers.

美国既民族主义又欺负邻国。指责别人的时候小心点。

 

mike Liny
Not sure about that. Have no doubt there are nationalists wherever, but unlike China, it isn't state policy.

对此我不太确定。毫无疑问,到处都有民族主义者,但与中国不同,这不是美国的国家政策。

 

mike Liny
And what bullying are talking about? Threatening tariffs on Canada or Mexco for allowing fentanyl trafficking? That isn't the near the same level as ramming into fishing boat or spraying them with water hoses.

哪里欺负了?你是说加拿大或墨西哥允许芬太尼走私,然后美国就威胁对其加征关税?这和撞渔船或者用水炮喷对方船只,可远远不是一个程度。

 

Lollygap
I don't think you're a very smart person. Never inject morality into geopolitics because at the end of the day, it's all about interest. Big countries do what's in their interest and smaller countries feel the impact.

我觉得你不太聪明。永远不要把道德观念引入地缘政治,归根结底,一切都是为了利益。大国追求自身利益,而小国则承受其影响。

 

mike Liny
Projecting. Not very smart not even attempting to refute an assertion. Morality is what is Right or Wrong. I assert that financially enabling your Enemy is a Bad move. You should try to argue why it isn't.

你这是在把自己的想法强加给别人。甚至都不尝试反驳一个观点,这可不太聪明。

道德就是对与错的评判标准。我认为在经济上扶持你的敌人是一步坏棋。

 

Lollygap
Morality is what's right or wrong?
Really? Answer this. The Invasion of Iraq was deemed an illegal war by the UN. Why didn't the EU sanction the US?
You guess it. Because it's not in the EU's INTEREST to sanction the US.

道德就是对与错?

真的吗?回答这个问题。联合国认定伊拉克战争是非法战争。为什么欧盟不制裁美国?

你猜怎么着。因为制裁美国不符合欧盟的利益。

 

mike Liny
Sorry, don't take the UN seriously. A corrupt organisation. I would say taking out a ruthless murderous dr is a good thing. Was it handle well, absolutely not. Could they have done things differently, definitely. If the US were more ruthless, it should have been in their INTEREST to keep that dr in power as a counter to Iran.

抱歉,我不把联合国当回事,一个腐败的组织而已。我认为除掉伊一个残忍嗜杀的伊拉克独才者是件好事。这件事处理得好吗,没有处理好。他们本可以用不同方式处理吗,当然可以。如果美国更狠一点,让那个独才者继续掌权伊拉克,以制衡伊朗,才符合他们的利益。

 

Lollygap
It's not a question of whether YOU take the UN seriously or not. Because no one cares. The question is if the US doesn't the the UN seriously, then why is it the UN's biggest contributor at 22%.

这不是你是否把联合国当回事的问题。没人在乎你怎么想。

问题是如果美国不把联合国当回事,那为什么它是联合国最大的出资国,出资比例达22%。

 

mike Liny
YOU apparently care. Seems someone is triggered. And they shouldn't be contributing to the UN. It should be dissolved, or relocated out of the US.

显然你在乎。看来有人被激怒了。美国就不该给联合国出资。联合国应该解散,或者搬出美国。

 

mike Liny
And back to the topic: Is financially enabling a state that views you as their Enemy a good or bad move?

回到正题:在经济上扶持一个视你为敌的国家,这步棋是好是坏?

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