美国一家智库发布一份颇具争议的报告，称中国尚未做好战争准备

Is China’s military really built for war? New report questions Beiing’s arms buildup

中国军队真的是为战争而建吗？新报告质疑中国的军备扩充

China is not ready for war, according to a contentious report from a US think tank

China has pursued a head-turning military buildup, during which the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – previously not even one of the strongest in Asia – has started to rival, or in some categories surpass, the US military in analysts’ estimations.

Simulations by US defense experts have repeatedly shown the US – widely regarded as the world’s strongest military – having a tough time matching the PLA in a fight close to China’s shores, especially over the island of Taiwan, which is claimed by Beiing.

美国一家智库发布的一份颇具争议的报告称，中国尚未做好战争准备。

中国一直在进行引人注目的军备扩充。在此期间，中国人民解放军（此前甚至不是亚洲最强军队之一）在分析人士的评估中，已经开始与美国军队相抗衡，在某些方面甚至超越了美军。

美国国防专家进行的模拟多次表明，被广泛认为是世界上最强大军队的美国，在靠近中国海岸的战斗中，尤其是在涉及被中国视为领土一部分的台湾的战斗中，很难与解放军匹敌。

A conventional war between the US and China is a “remote possibility,” and Pentagon planners should focus on a wider variety of Chinese threats than missiles and bombs, he added.

中美之间爆发常规战争是“极不可能的”，五角大楼的规划者应该关注比导弹和炸弹更多样化的中国威胁。

Few doubt that the PLA has made great strides in both the number and quality of weapons it can field. Take for example its warships, led by the Type 055 destroyer, classified by many analysts as the most powerful surface combatant in the world.

The PLA Navy launched its 10th Type 055 last year, with as many as six more expected in the coming years. Each requires a crew of about 300 sailors.

Collin Koh, research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said building the high-tech warships may be easier than crewing them – because modern warships need young sailors to take on complex tasks, and that requires extensive training.

“The army could likely assimilate someone from the countryside … who might not get a lot of education … and train him up to be an infantryman. But if you want to train somebody who is able to man the controls in the combat information center in the warship, fire a missile and to maintain a missile, that requires a bit more,” Koh said.

很少有人怀疑解放军在其能够部署的武器数量和质量方面都取得了巨大进步。以其军舰为例，055型驱逐舰为首，许多分析人士将其归类为世界上最强大的水面作战舰艇。

中国人民解放军海军去年下水了第10艘055型驱逐舰，预计未来几年还将有多达6艘下水。每艘驱逐舰需要约300名船员。

新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院研究员柯林•高说，建造高科技军舰可能比配备船员更容易——因为现代军舰需要年轻船员承担复杂任务，而这需要大量训练。

高说：“陆军可能可以吸纳一个来自农村……可能没有接受太多教育……的人，并将他训练成一名步兵。但如果你想训练一个能够在军舰的作战信息中心操控设备、发射导弹并维护导弹的人，那就需要更多的东西。”

以下是美国雅虎读者的评论；

Commensense
While I would never want a war with China, why wouldn’t we consider China a significant and capable threat? It would be dangerous to underestimate them.

我可从没想过要跟中国打仗，但我们为啥就不把中国当成一个厉害又有实力的威胁呢？小瞧他们可就危险了。

John
If we get into a war with China, it will get real bad for us! This country is not prepared to fight them while the politicians destroy the country!

要是跟中国干起来，我们可就惨咯！美国那帮政客把国家搞得乌烟瘴气，国家根本没准备好跟中国打仗啊！

Usingyou
The country isn’t prepared for the loss of goods!
I wouldn’t blame the politicians for destroying the country. They don’t just appear magically in office. The people put them there.

我们国家根本没准备好应对物资损失啊！

我倒不怪那些政客把国家搞成这样，他们又不是凭空就上台的，还不是民众自己选上去的。

Geme
No not really, I know this culture! They can’t think for themselves!

才不是呢，我了解这种文化！他们没什么自己的想法！

tallest4eva
Remember when China fought the US to a stalemate, even with political commissars, and an American overwhelming superiority in artillery, armour, air support, naval support etc.
Right now, the US definitely doesn't have that overwhelming superiority any more. In fact, regionally, China will probably have the naval and anti - air, and anti - ship superiority if the clash happens. If China and the US comes to blows over Taiwan, expect a ground invasion by the Chinese army from North Korea to take South Korea and push US forces out.

还记得不，当年就算美国在火炮、装甲、空中支援、海军支援这些方面都占尽优势，中国还是跟美国打成了平手。

现在呢，美国肯定没以前那种压倒性优势了。说实话，要是真起冲突，在地区范围内，中国很可能在海军、防空和反舰这些方面占据优势。要是中美因为台湾问题打起来，说不定中国军队会从朝鲜发起地面进攻，拿下韩国，把美军赶出去。

chuck
Amphibious warfare is a very complex undertaking. The invasion of Taiwan with ground troops is almost as far in distance as, the invasion of Normandy. The Allied forces had naval superiority in The English Channel and air superiority at the time ( as with the Pacific theatre's Island Hop Campaign). China would have a more, contested crossing of the Taiwan Strait.

两栖作战可不是件容易事儿啊。派地面部队进攻台湾，这距离差不多跟当年诺曼底登陆那么远。当年盟军在英吉利海峡有海军优势，在空中也占优（就像太平洋战区的跳岛作战一样）。解放军要跨越台湾海峡，肯定会面临更多阻碍。

kevvai
Nope. China would win easy

不可能，中国肯定轻松取胜。

jamesa
Precisely!
Korea is the key!

没错！朝鲜半岛是关键！

milton
Hmmm, sounds like Trump is trying to do the same in the US. Maybe the thinktanks should soon rethink the preparedness of the US to fight a war. When the President fires or appoints generals for political reasons, we aren't doing much better than appointing political commissars to lead our armies

嗯，听着特朗普好像在美国也想搞这一套。说不定智囊团该赶紧重新审视下美国对战争的准备情况了。美国总统要是出于政治目的任免将领，那跟派政委来带兵也没啥区别了。

John Doe
I will agree with you on one point. The US needs to step up it's preparedness in the newest kinds of warfare, electronic warfare being our biggest shortcoming.
So where was all your criticism when Obama was purging the pentagon of all the important right leaning generals?
You know, the ones who were more focused on war, not the ones who were focused on getting more DEI in the military.
Didn't bat an eye did you?
Pretty hypocritical wouldn't you say?

这点我同意你。美国得加强在新型战争方面的准备，电子战就是我们最大的短板。

奥巴马清洗五角大楼里那些重要的右翼将领的时候，你们咋不批评呢？

就是那些一门心思研究打仗的将领，可不是那些一门心思在军队里搞多元化、公平和包容的人。

你们当时连眼皮都没眨一下吧？

这不是很虚伪嘛，你说呢？

legion
In a near peer war the US will make Ukraine look like Disneyland. Bringing back the mission now, bringing back the swagger we have been sorely missing.

在一场势均力敌的战争中，美国会让乌克兰看起来就像迪士尼乐园一样小儿科。现在该重拾使命，找回我们一直缺失的那种自信了。

John
Oh, let's keep Mark Milley and his band of clowns leaving $billions of gear for the Taliban and telling China what we are doing. Not to mention the troops that died in the withdrawal. All under his watch. The same guy who said Russia would take Ukraine in 3 weeks. Some generals need to be purged.

哦，我们们就留着马克•米利和他那帮蠢货吧，他们把价值数十亿美元的装备留给塔利班，还把我们的行动透露给中国。更别提撤军过程中牺牲的那些士兵了。这可都是在他眼皮子底下发生的事儿。就是这家伙，还说俄罗斯三周就能拿下乌克兰。有些将军真该被清理掉了。

Kelvin
China’s focus has been on improving its society with advances of technology and science.
America is unable to change course and can only hold power through military might.
At this point China can just wait it out as America starts to cripple itself under the weight of its bloated defense budget.

中国一直致力于通过科技进步来改善社会。

美国却没法改变路线，只能靠军事力量维持霸权。

照这样下去，中国就等着看美国被庞大的国防预算压垮就行了。

Homer
Don’t joke yourself, everything is about military might. Power is a top priority for human beings no matter how much civilized we claim we are. Ask yourself what is tech and science actually going to get you? The newest smartphone? The west knows how important the military is that is why the US pays that much for it.

别自欺欺人了，一切都得靠军事力量。不管我们自诩多么文明，权力对人类来说都是首要的。你问问自己，科技到底能带给你什么？最新款的智能手机？西方很清楚军事的重要性，所以美国才在这上面花这么多钱。

blabbermouth
China's tech advances are from rip of America

中国的科技进步都是抄袭美国的。

TKSSPP
I have seen over the last 20 years..... America been making money thru 'destroying'. China going thru different approach. They build to make money. Prove me wrong please.

过去20年我算是看明白了，美国靠“破坏”赚钱，中国走的是不同的路，靠建设赚钱。谁要是不同意，来反驳我啊。

Solidfactsonly
US lost with its 17 allies to China in Korea War, then Viet Nam war, when China had no advanced weapons. Now US weaponry is obsolete. No air defense against China's hypersonic missiles. No manufacturing capability even to keep up with repairing ships and planes (drops pretty often this year), not to mention its capacity vs China's ship building capacity at 230 times that of US. China is getting 6 generation jets? Where is US's?

当年中国没什么先进武器，美国带着17个盟友，在朝鲜战争和越南战争中都输给了中国。现在美国武器都过时了，根本没法防御中国的高超音速导弹。连修船修飞机的制造能力都跟不上（今年坠机、船只故障啥的可不少），更别提跟中国比造船能力了，中国的造船能力可是美国的230倍。中国都快有第六代战机了，美国的呢？

pope
have you ever heard of the TR - 3B?
these things are over 40 years old so what do we have now?

你听说过TR3B吗？

这东西都40多年前的事儿了，那我们现在有啥呢？

Solidfactsonly
If US rely on rumors to fight wars, good luck!
The rumor about the TR - 3B first surfaced in the late 1980s and early 1990s. It was allegedly coined by a man named Edgar Fouche, who claimed to be a high - ranking Air Force member2. Fouche toured UFO conventions during that time, presenting information about the "Tactical Reconnaissance - 3B" and its supposed mercury propulsion system.
Since then, the TR - 3B has become a popular subject of speculation and conspiracy theories, but there's no concrete evidence to support its exstence.

要是美国靠传言打仗，那就祝他们好运吧！

关于TR - 3B的传言最早出现在20世纪80年代末90年代初。据说是一个叫埃德加•富歇的人编出来的，他自称是美国空军的高级成员。那段时间富歇到处参加不明飞行物大会，介绍所谓“战术侦察 - 3B”及其汞推进系统的信息。

从那以后，TR - 3B就成了猜测和阴谋论的热门话题，但根本没实际证据证明它存在。

Theloggingtrader
The world is returning to normalcy. Goldman Sachs projects China, India, and the U.S. as the top economies respectively by 2070.
Many Americans today can’t comprehend this.
Perhaps some counseling from Historians might help.

世界正在恢复正常。高盛预测，到2070年，中国、印度和美国将分别成为全球前三大经济体。

现在很多美国人都理解不了这事儿。

也许听听历史学家的意见会有帮助。

sean
by 2070? in the long run we're all dead said Keynes. we are far from any semblance of normalcy.
you cant compare our US gdp to india and china. our per capita gdp is currentlh 5x to 6x that of china or india. but it is not sustainable.
US can't make a budget and shuts down regularly. the longest in history was 35 days, under trump with a republican senate and house, costing the US $5 billion
congress can't balance the budget every year without raising the debt ceiling. in other words the only way we can make our sovereign debt payments is printing money. of we were thr number 2 economy we would not have this luxury - we would default.

到2070年？凯恩斯说过，从长远来看，我们都死了。我们离正常状态还差得远呢。

不能把美国的GDP跟印度和中国比。我们现在的人均GDP是中国或印度的5到6倍，但这可没法持续下去。

美国连个预算都搞不定，还经常政府停摆。历史上最长的一次停摆是特朗普执政时期，参议院和众议院都是共和党人，停摆了35天，让美国损失了50亿美元。

国会每年都得提高债务上限才能平衡预算。换句话说，我们偿还主权债务的唯一办法就是印钱。要是我们成了第二大经济体，可没这待遇，早就违约了。

AL UK
The dude who wrote the report for Goldman Sachs must be on drugs. With the ever - growing prison population for violent crimes in the USA, plus a rising number of people depending on zero - dollar shop to make ends meet. The US will not be much of a leading economy. Think about it: 45 years ago, Chinese were going about their business on bicycles and rickshaws. I can't even imagine what China will do by 2070. Beam me up, Scottie.

给高盛写报告的那家伙肯定嗑药了。美国暴力犯罪入狱的人数越来越多，还有越来越多的人靠零元购维持生计。美国不会再是领先的经济体了。想想看，45年前，中国人还骑着自行车、坐着人力车忙活呢。我都不敢想象到2070年中国会发展成什么样。快把我传送走吧，斯科蒂。

GulfRasta
I'm mixed Korean. I was born in Seoul. Dad was in the 8th Army while I was young. Yonsang Garrison. CSM. I remember how we said all the time how the UN and the USA kicked tail. If it wasn't for political reasons like Truman it wouldn't have been close. We would have nuked China and won.
Then Dad told me otherwise. Told me the Chinese almost won. There was just too many of them and they were like the Soviets. Better in the winter warfare arena.
He told me when he was at Chosin Reservoir, it was like Napoleon, 1812, Russia. The weather was the worst enemy of all.
Dad said he would never underestimate the PLA ever again. He also told me never to do so either.
So I write this. Oh heck no. Until China gets depopulated by their own systems that caused them to shrink into a non - problem, keep an eye to the East.
BTW, the US and the rest of the developed world has the same problem.
It's changing. Tan and Brown actually won the race war thousands of years ago

我是韩裔混血，出生在首尔。小时候我爸在第八集团军，在龙山卫戍区，是军士长。我记得我们以前总说联合国和美国多厉害。要不是因为杜鲁门那些政治因素，这场战争根本没悬念。我们早就用核弹炸中国然后赢了。

但后来我爸跟我说了不一样的情况。他说中国差点就赢了。中国人太多了，而且就像苏联人一样，在冬季作战方面更有优势。

他跟我说，他在长津湖的时候，就像1812年拿破仑在俄国一样，天气才是最大的敌人。

我爸说他再也不会小瞧中国人民解放军了，他也让我千万别小瞧。

所以我才写下这些。哎呀，绝对不能啊。除非中国因为自身的一些问题导致人口减少，不再构成威胁，不然就得一直盯着东方。

顺便说一句，美国和其他发达国家都有同样的问题。

情况在变化。实际上，几千年前肤色较深的人种就已经在种族竞争中胜出了。

BG
China may have the means now to hold a super power war. But in terms of developed strategy using their material weapons can be a defining factors how effective they can be. China have not use yet their found military tech power to fight a formidable foe in a coordinated approach and there is no variety in their technique, no real life training. Historically they use swarm technique to subdue an enemy in a military conflict, they did that with Russia, Japan, Vietnam and in Korean war in the 4 major wars China was involved in, and has not yet employed surgical operation except in cabbage strategy in South China sea. Their training in a more complicated war operation as opposed to USA adept in complicated war situation however formidable an enemy might be is very much a questionable. They will have an incoherent response once they battle in a multi - wars affecting multiple places coupled by economic embargo.

中国现在可能有能力打一场超级大国间的战争。但说到运用现有武器装备制定成熟战略，进而决定作战效果，这方面还得打个问号。

中国还没把现有的军事技术力量整合起来，去对付一个强大的对手，而且战术单一，也缺乏实战训练。

从历史上看，在与俄罗斯、日本、越南的战争以及朝鲜战争这四场中国参与的大战中，中国都采用人海战术制服敌人。

除了在南海的“切香肠”策略，还没采取过精确打击战术。跟美国相比，美国擅长应对复杂的战争局势，不管敌人多强大都有办法，而中国在更复杂的战争行动方面的训练，实在让人怀疑。一旦面临多地区同时开战并遭遇经济制裁，他们可能会应对失当。

Homer
As an ethnic chinese, i am highly doubtful of china’s capabilities too. Would be interesting to see how they handle actual war because i simply think that chinese ppl are just not warriors. Most just want a big family and a lot of food to eat. Of course, they will still charge if the masters tell them to, but so did the russians

作为一个华裔，我也很怀疑中国的能力。真想看看他们在实战中会怎么应对，因为我觉得中国人骨子里就不是好战的人。大多数人就想有个大家庭，吃饱饭就行。当然，如果领导下令，他们也会冲锋陷阵，但当年俄罗斯人也是这样啊。

Castili
Since 1991 Russia has fought in 2 Chechen wars, Georgia, in Syria and with Ukraine. China hasn't fought since it was in Vietnam in 79. Look at what has happened to Russia in Ukraine. No one could have expected that. Even the North Korean soldiers were said to be highly motivated and effective because of ideology. China won't have it easy.

1991年以来，俄罗斯打了两次车臣战争，还在格鲁吉亚、叙利亚和乌克兰参战。中国自1979年对越自卫反击战后就没再打过仗了。看看俄罗斯在乌克兰的遭遇，谁能想到会这样呢。据说就连朝鲜士兵都因为意识形态而斗志昂扬、战斗力很强。中国打仗可不会轻松。

Hank
china is making a big push right now before the big decline. china's population pyramid is upside down. They will lose 40% of their workforce in the next 5 to 10 years due to retirement or death. They know it's coming and are in absolute panic.

东大现在是在大幅衰退前奋力冲刺。东大的人口金字塔都倒过来了，在未来5到10年，会因为退休或死亡失去40%的劳动力。他们知道这一切即将发生，现在慌得一批。

Joeseph
All this talk is the same thing we heard for years about Russia. The same Russia who cannot touch a bunch of farmers with 1980s weapons. China has built their military from stolen technology. You don’t think we know what they have? We let them see what we want.

这些说法跟我们这些年说俄罗斯的没啥两样。俄罗斯连拿着80年代武器的农民军都搞不定。中国的军事力量是靠窃取技术发展起来的。你们真以为我们不清楚他们有什么？我们只是想让他们看到我们想展示的东西而已。

Jstint
I would say right now their main focus is maintaining control. But they will start to focus more on projection in the next few years.
What always surprises me about these US v China things. China has so many regional enemies, At least a few would try to take back contested land.
That's also why I think China is currently more concerned about protection at home. They need to be able to hold off a ground invasion on multiple fronts while fighting the US.

我觉得目前他们主要精力都放在维持国内稳定上。但在未来几年，他们会更多地着眼于力量投射。

每次说到中美对峙，有件事总让我惊讶。中国周边有不少敌对国家，至少有几个会试图夺取有争议的领土。

这也是我认为中国目前更关注本土防御的原因。他们得在与美国对抗的同时，能在多条战线上抵御地面入侵。