Can 'Made In India' and 'America First' Co-exst?

“印度制造” 与 “美国优先” 能够共存吗？

Could Narendra Modi’s “Made in India” push co-exst with Donald Trump’s “America First”? We spoke with the Rockefeller’s Ruchir Sharma who expects growing tension between the two nations. Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India Raghuram Rajan analyzes some of the major economic problems that India faces.

纳伦德拉·莫迪所推动的 “印度制造” 能否与唐纳德·特朗普的 “美国优先” 并存呢？

我们与洛克菲勒公司的鲁奇尔进行了交谈，他预计美印两国之间的紧张局势会加剧。印度储备银行前行长拉古拉姆·拉詹分析了印度面临的一些主要经济问题。

I will very simply put, America first. Make in India, make part of the globe.

Until now, the India growth story has been one of the biggest of the post-pandemic world. Its growth rate touched 8%. Its benchmark stock index, the NIFTY50, has outpaced the S&P 500 since the start of 2021.

At least until recently, the shine has come off the India story a bit. Over the last few months, the stock market's fallen quite a bit over the last few months and in general, growth has slowed down.

So I think that that's the typical pattern in any country and that we see that they only carry out economic reforms under some pressure or when they have their back to the wall and investors have started to look elsewhere. Indian equities saw almost $21 billion of foreign inflows in 2023, but they plummeted to just $124 million last year. And investors have withdrawn more than $12 billion so far this year.

So has something gone wrong with the India growth machine?

简单来说，就是“美国优先”，“印度制造”，成为全球的一部分。

直到现在，印度的增长历程一直是疫情后世界中最为引人瞩目的之一。其增长率达到了8%。自2021年初以来，印度的基准股指印度国家证券交易所50指数（NIFTY50）的表现已经超过了标准普尔500指数。

至少直到最近，印度的发展神话才稍稍褪去了一些光彩。在过去的几个月里，股市在这期间大幅下跌，总体而言，经济增长也放缓了。

我们看到，印度往往只是在一定压力下，或者在走投无路的时候才会推行经济改革，而且投资者们已经开始把目光投向其他地方了。2023年，印度股市吸引了近210亿美元的外国资金流入，但去年这一数字骤降至仅1.24亿美元。并且今年到目前为止，投资者已经撤出了超过120亿美元的资金。

那么，印度的增长引擎是不是出了什么问题呢？

以下是各国网友的评论：

vvsnmurty7564
The philosophy of Mr Raghuram Rajan is only service sector for Indian growth. His theory is flawed.. Many other experts do not accept his philosophy. Further, he is anti BJP and Modi. He is supporter of opposition Congress party and political in his views, and as such Bloomberg is wrong in asking for his views for impartial assesment.

拉古拉姆·拉詹先生的理念是印度的增长仅依靠服务业。他的理论存在缺陷。其他专家很多并不认同他的理念。此外，他反对印度人民党和莫迪。他是国大党的支持者，观点带有政治色彩。因此，彭博社就不该向他征求意见

BakruddinMaveshi-r7h
That's because if India starts excelling in Manufacturing sector, you know the factory of the world will get affected.
Somehow Congress and their supporters go out of their way to further that one country's agenda

如果印度开始在制造业表现出色，世界工厂中国会受到影响。不知为何，国大党及其支持者会不遗余力地推进另一个国家的议程。

markosmataasii2000
@BakruddinMaveshi-r7h This is based on emperical evidence and data when he's saying that. More manufacturing jobs are lost primarily due to automation especially now that robotics and AI are quite advanced already. The nature when CHINA took manufacturing way back 40 years ago is different now when automation was not even being applied that time. Take a look of textile and apparel industry, you don't need as many human labor today sewing clothes, making shoes nor processing materials because of industrial automation. Even with high textile exports in Bangladesh, it barely accommodate the available human labor there. Manufacturing for India is too late already in order for it to accommodate jobs for its very huge population. The bus has already left decades ago.

他那么说是有实证依据和数据支撑的。越来越多制造业岗位流失，主要是因为自动化，尤其是现在机器人技术和人工智能已经相当先进了。

40年前中国涉足制造业时的情况与现在不同，那时甚至都还没有应用自动化技术。看看纺织和服装行业，由于工业自动化，如今缝制衣服、制作鞋子或加工材料都不需要那么多人力了。

即便孟加拉国的纺织品出口量很大，也几乎无法容纳当地现有的劳动力。对印度来说，想要通过制造业来为庞大的人口提供就业岗位，已经为时过晚。发展制造业的“末班车”几十年前就已经开走了。

Eagles-x4d4
do not care what are rajan's political inclinations. fact is, we need atleast 7% growth to become developed by 2047, and no matter what bjp says, manufacturing is even declining in gdp share.
tell bjp to do something for god's sake rather than blaming rajan who is at least factually right.

我不在乎拉詹的政治倾向是怎么样的。事实上，我们要在2047年实现发达，至少需要保持7%的增长率。而且不管印度人民党怎么说，制造业在国内生产总值中的占比甚至还在下降。看在老天爷的份上，让印度人民党做点实事吧，别再指责拉詹了，至少他说的是事实。

vvsnmurty7564
I am not sure in which industry you worked. Even automation needs humans to observe and test. The skill becomes more important. Take for example motherboard manufacture in electronic industry. You can not manually assemble the components. Automation is essential not only to increase productivity but also miniscule nature of the job. Here also need man to supervise. People should understand manufacturing needs brain which himan being only have. AI is invention of man only.

我不确定你曾在哪个行业工作。即便有自动化，也需要人来观察和测试。技能变得更加重要了。就拿电子行业的主板制造来说吧。你没办法手工组装那些零部件。自动化不仅对于提高生产效率至关重要，而且对于这类精细工作也是必不可少的。这同样也需要人来监督。人们应该明白，制造业需要的是只有人类才具备的智慧。人工智能也不过是人类的发明罢了。

walkspiritually
​ @mayanksharma-kj5lq you do your work as well covid then war etc we are doing really very well

你也做好自己的事吧。经历了新冠疫情，还有战争等等，我们做得真的很不错了。

mayanksharma-kj5lq
@walkspiritually ok bhai. 800 million people requiring free grains and that is called "we are doing very well". this is called love for your nation
I need my 800 million to have good lifestyle, you keep doing well. but I really want my nation to do well, thank you.

好吧，兄弟。有8亿人需要免费的粮食，这就叫 “我们做得很不错” 吗？这就是所谓的爱国吗？我希望这8亿人能过上好的生活，你继续觉得 “不错” 吧。但我真的希望我们的国家能发展得好，谢谢。

ukumarc11
Stock market always have cycle... That's basic of stock market.. So called India expert is biased.. India will keep growing.

股市总是有周期的，这是股市的基本规律。所谓的印度专家有失偏颇。印度会继续发展的。

veensankars
Make in America for America and Make in India for India can co-exst

“美国制造，为了美国” 和 “印度制造，为了印度” 是可以共存的。

macarguy4065
Such an ignorant comment. Explains why India has low standards. Brother, America exports a LOT of things. Including Tech. India's economy does not grow without exporting AND COMPETING with foreign companies. Competition made China what it is. And stealing ideas/reverse engineering. But America did that too. Europe does that too.
In India, its taboo but when they actually do it, its always subpar because its meant for the Indian market. And because India has few options, that stagnation in innovation lingers.

太无知了。这就解释了为什么印度的标准这么低。兄弟，美国出口很多东西呢，包括科技产品。如果不出口并且与外国公司竞争，印度经济就无法增长。

竞争成就了如今的中国。还有借鉴创意和逆向工程。

美国也这么做过，欧洲也是过来人。在印度，这是个禁忌话题，但当他们真这么做的时候，成果总是差强人意，因为这些产品是面向印度市场的。

而且由于印度的选择有限，创新停滞的问题一直存在。

imacarguy4065
America exports plenty to India as well. They make hella money doing so.

美国也向印度大量出口。他们赚得盆满钵满。

Sar-dard
Make in india because india is biggest market and biggest manpower, and india do anything

搞 “印度制造” 吧，印度有最大的市场和最庞大的劳动力，而且印度无所不能。

v_n_bot
Raghuramrajan was the worst governor happened to India !! He never say anything positive aboutthe country gave him the top position !

拉古拉姆·拉詹是印度有史以来最糟糕的央行行长！是我们国家给予他这个高位，却从不说好话！

Adsbfull
A slow and steady growth is more important in the long term than too fast urbanization. It will be better planned and more robust

从长远来看，缓慢而稳定的增长比过快的城市化更为重要。这样的增长会规划得更好，也更加稳健。

gg1642
India needs as rapid a growth as possible. It has millions of young people entering the workforce every year. The median age is 29! If these people don't get jobs, the country is doomed.

印度需要尽可能快速的增长。每年都有数百万人进入劳动力市场。印度的中位年龄才29岁！如果这些人找不到工作，这个国家就完了。

sailingadventurer
India has only 10 years until its youth will grow old. Slow and steady is another word for slow & inefficient

印度的年轻人再过10年就会变老。所谓的 “缓慢而稳定” 不过是 “缓慢且低效” 的另一种说法罢了。

BHYUDAYSARKAR
@sailingadventurer it's more than 10. Real figure is close to 30
But by 2050 we will start to age and the favourable demographic structure will not be there.

不止10年。可能要30年会才会变老。但到2050年，我们印度的人口就会开始老龄化，到时候人口红利不复存在。

ankitmaurya2732
Slow steady It's been 75+ years. Since independence every leader came and said we will be superpower. We will have this and that makes false promises.
If you see yourself as a super power then have the ability to implement on ground.
Japan, Korea, China, Singapore, Asian countries, Turkey, Middle East... Etc. All have transformed themselves in a decade.
And we are not close to anyone in terms of development

缓慢而稳定？都已经过去75年多了。自独立以来，每一位领导人都说我们会成为超级大国，还许下各种承诺，结果都是空头支票。

如果你自认为是超级大国，那就得有能力把想法付诸实践。

日本、韩国、中国、新加坡这些亚洲国家，还有土耳其、中东地区等等，都在十年内实现了自我蜕变。

而我们印度的发展，比他们中的任何一个都差得远呢。

sivaprasadks8781
The thing is government has to prioritise in stability more than rapid change.

关键在于，政府必须优先考虑稳定，而不是急于求成、快速变革。

ceanwave4502
I think India can't create conditions China had in 1980s when Western countries were at their peak (relatively to the rest). So they didn't mind deindustrialization and outsourcing as well as tech-transfer. But today, it is very different now.

我认为印度无法创造出中国在20世纪80年代时的条件，那时西方国家正处于巅峰状态（相对其他国家而言），不介意去工业化、外包业务以及技术转让。但如今的情况大不相同了。

realnapster1522
India doesn't need to. It's growing organically. The growth is happening despite exports.

印度不需要创造和中国当时一样的条件。它正在自然地发展。即便不依赖出口，增长也在发生。

alayatyagi1900
@Bloomberg Television Please remove raghuram ranjan as your SME on Indian economy & Policies primarily because he don't live in india and often times has incorrect understanding of the impact of federal policies on a ground level.. Even when he comes to india he acts as an "Indian Urban Elite"

请不要再让拉古拉姆·拉詹担任你们关于印度经济和政策方面的资深市场专家了，主要是因为他不住在印度，而且常常对联邦政策在基层的影响存在误解。即便他回到印度，充其量也就是一个 “印度城市精英”。

shavahishta7023
The West has been touting the idea of India replacing China in the supply chain for almost a decade, but the reality is that China has completed its industrial upgrading and now India's competitors are Southeast Asian, African and South American countries, I don't think India has any advantage.

近十年来，西方一直在鼓吹印度将在供应链中取代中国的观点，但现实是，中国已经完成了产业升级，如今印度的竞争对手是东南亚、非洲和南美洲的国家。我认为印度没有任何优势。

utkarshp0399
India's only advantage is it's huge market

印度唯一的优势就是它庞大的市场。

aaryankumar8770
Yesterday a report came in that apple is now using india as a components source nation for China and vietnam
What about that?

昨天有份报告称，苹果公司现在把印度当作向中国和越南供应零部件的来源国。这又能说明什么呢？

GavinQuan
@aaryankumar8770 It's far from enough. India has similar GDP as China in 2007. China achieved manufacturing value added of 1.15 trillion USD at that year while Inida only has 200-250 billion now. India has huge potential, but its future will not be a replacement of China. China walks a new routine in human history and India should find its own as well.

这远远不够。印度现在的国内生产总值和中国2007年时差不多。中国在2007年制造业增加值达到了1.15万亿美元，而印度如今只有2000亿到2500亿美元。印度有巨大的潜力，但它的未来不会是取代中国。中国走出了人类历史上的一条新道路，印度也应该找到属于自己的发展道路。

toddfulton2280
The problem with 'made in China' is the heavy use of government subsidies and market dum in order to bankrupt foreign companies. If India follows fair trading practices, there is no problem.

“中国制造” 的问题在于，中国大量使用政府补贴和进行市场倾销，目的是让外国公司破产。如果印度遵循公平的贸易惯例，那就不会有问题。

ankitmaurya2732
As Indian I am with Trump MAGA. Indian goverment do only 5% and feed it in indian people mind like they have done what they said.
I am not ashamed to agree that our goverment have failed in ground implementation. Its been 11 years since Modi gain power in that time period China totally transform itself. And our minister just claiming to be superover.
We urgent need a social, economics and educational reforms. Implement from today itself without playing any dirty politics on religion, region and language.

作为一名印度人，我支持特朗普的 “让美国再次伟大”理念。印度政府只做了5% 的实事，却让印度民众以为他们兑现了承诺。我毫不羞愧，不得不说我们的政府在实际执行方面失败了。莫迪执政已经11年了，在这期间中国实现了彻底的变革。而我们的部长们却还在宣称印度是超级大国。我们迫切需要进行社会、经济和教育改革。从今天就开始实施，不要再在宗教、地区和语言问题上搞任何肮脏的政治手段了。

继续阅读：印度制造   美国优先   特朗普   莫迪

此文由 三泰虎 编辑，未经允许不得转载！：首页 > 资讯 » “印度制造” 与 “美国优先” 能够共存吗