Can China Avoid Japan’s Lost Decades?

中国能否避免重蹈日本“失去十年”的覆辙？

Low bond yields, weak inflation and a struggling property market have raised fears China may see its own version of Japan’s 1990s “balance sheet recession.” Can China change course in time to avoid its own “lost decades?”

债券收益率低企、通货膨胀乏力以及房地产市场举步维艰，这些情况引发了人们的担忧，担心中国可能会出现类似于日本上世纪90年代的“资产负债表衰退”。中国能否及时调整方向，避免陷入“失去的十年”呢？

以下是外国网友的评论：

potblack243
Japan's lost decades was because they signed plaza accord. They couldn't say no to america. China is different, they say no at your face.

日本“失去十年”，是因为他们签署了《广场协议》。他们无法对美国说不。中国则不同，中国会当面拒绝美国的不合理要求。

olska9498
Japan could've also said 'no' and suffered the consequences of a trade war and extreme high tariffs just like China does right now. The nation with the unfair trade surplus always loses trade wars, hence why Japan signed.

日本当时其实也可以说“不”，但那样就会像中国现在这样，承受贸易战和极高关税带来的后果。拥有不公平贸易顺差的国家往往会在贸易战中落败，这就是日本签署（《广场协议》）的原因。

reeSpeech-z6j
The "lost decade" of Japan was because USA raised interest rates in the 90's and the Japanese housing market imploded (Japan was already a developed country), Japan economy stagnated meaning it did not go backwards it only increased with inflation and is still retained its spot as a global powerhouse through prosperous Japanese companies

日本的“失去十年”，是由于美国在上世纪90年代提高了利率，致使日本房地产市场瞬间崩塌（当时日本已是发达国家）。

日本经济陷入停滞状态，这并非意味着经济倒退，只是随着通货膨胀有所增长，而且凭借着日本企业，日本至今仍保留着全球经济强国的地位。

Alyx_Y129
it hurts US as well, no one can benefit from the trade war tbh, we must admit that China is the only country in the world that can say no

贸易战同样也会伤害到美国。说实话，没有人能从贸易战中获益。我们必须承认，中国是世界上唯一一个能够对美国说“不”的国家。

nntflow7058
You forgot to mention Japanese culture and Japanese companies reluctant to actually spend money and taking risk in innovating. But go off.

你忘了提及日本文化以及日本企业实际上不愿投入资金、也不敢冒险进行创新。

socksock6040
However, China is the world's largest consumer market in many aspects, such as electric vehicles. This is different from Japan. In the last century, Japan's domestic demand could not sustain a large industry and it was very dependent on exports to the United States

然而，中国在许多领域都是全球最大的消费市场，比如电动汽车领域。这与日本截然不同。

在上个世纪，日本的国内需求无法支撑起一个大型产业，严重依赖对美国的出口。

Musa03n
let me fix the title for yall
Can Germany Avoid Japan’s Lost Decades?

让我来给你们改改这个标题：

德国能否避免重蹈日本“失去十年”的覆辙？

SammyCee23
China will be fine lol. I would worry more about Germany and Europe in general.

哈哈，中国不会有问题的。我更担心的是德国，乃至整个欧洲。

Musa03n
whats the point to have a workforce if the things you made dont sell? Germany's in trouble in its 2 biggest exporting market China and America, and exports account to 40% of Germany's total GDP

如果生产出来的东西卖不出去，拥有大量劳动力又有什么意义呢？德国在其两个最大的出口市场——中国和美国，都陷入了困境，而出口占德国GDP的40%。

hharry3179
I think US is more likely to incur lost decade. There are several geopolitical factor in which my assumptions are based on:

1. US is using a protectionist approach to govern their economy, they've set high tariffs on all major trading partners without trying to find new ones.

2. Recent mass deportation of immigrants resulting in which many are young people, resulting in a lack of working age population

3. Brain drain from the US. Medical professionals are leaving US enmass due to restrictive laws that would incarcerate medical professionals prescribing necessary abortion pills to patients and mass migration of skilled federal workers laid off from US government.

我认为美国更有可能陷入“失去的十年”。我的这一假设基于以下几个地缘政治因素：

1. 美国正采用经济保护主义，对所有主要贸易伙伴都设置了高额关税，却不努力开拓新的贸易伙伴。

2. 近期大规模驱逐移民，其中很多都是年轻人，这导致了劳动年龄人口的短缺。

3. 美国出现了人才外流现象。由于一些限制性法律，那些为患者开具必要堕胎药的医疗专业人员可能会被监禁，这使得大批医疗专业人员离开美国；此外，还有大量被美国政府解雇的熟练联邦工作人员也在大规模移民。

nguyenlamanh2919
I don’t think China relies too much on Germany that the economic situation in Germany can affect China.

我认为中国并没有过度依赖德国，德国的经济状况不会对中国产生太大影响。

noahpeng1689
Of course. Japan is a colony of the United States. The United States can force Japan to sign the Plaza Accord, but it cannot force China to do anything that is not beneficial to China.

中国当然不会重蹈日本覆辙。日本是美国的附庸国。美国能够强迫日本签署《广场协议》，却无法强迫中国

horridohobbies
China's economy is totally different from Japan's. China's political governance is totally different from Japan's. China's geopolitical situation is totally different from Japan's. Drawing any parallel between the two is absurd and intellectually dishonest.

中国的经济与日本截然不同。中国的政治治理模式与日本大相径庭。中国的地缘政治形势也与日本天差地别。将两者进行类比是荒谬的，也是不诚实的学术态度。

pruthirajpradhan1295
Japan was forced to appreciate it's currency way too much within a short span of time. So cut this bs

日本曾在短时间内被迫大幅升值货币。

ChLop-zz3lq
China isn't bound by a Plaza accord. If economic pain becomes unbearable, it could simply devalue the RMB, thus solve its debt problems and revive it's economy. Currently, Beiing doesn't want to offend the US and doesn't devaluate just yet. But if Trump keeps pushing, the chinese can easily play this card. Therefore, a Japan-style lost decade seems rather unlikely.

中国不受《广场协议》的束缚。如果经济压力变得难以承受，中国只需让人民币贬值，这样就能解决债务问题，重振经济。目前，中国不想得罪美国，所以还没有让人民币贬值。但如果特朗普继续施压，中国完全可以打出这张牌。因此，中国不太可能出现像日本那样的“失去的十年”。

irokpe6977
The thing is if china devalues its currency to boost exports, the importing nations will take notice and place tariffs against china. Brazil raised concerns over China's steel companies and decided to tarrif chinese steel. Of course, the devaluation of China's currency will make less industrious nations happy (especially the ones in Africa). This is because they will see the cheap imports as a blessing rather than a curse.

问题在于，如果中国通过贬值货币来促进出口，进口国就会注意到这一点，并对中国设置关税。巴西就曾对中国钢铁企业表示担忧，并决定对中国钢铁征收关税。

当然，中国货币贬值会让一些工业不太发达的国家（尤其是非洲国家）感到高兴。廉价的进口商品是好事，而非坏事。

abdiganiaden
devaluing hurts household pockets in favor of industries. Otherwise China would devalue even more, there’s negative effects

货币贬值会损害家庭的利益，却有利于企业。否则，中国可能会更大幅度地贬值货币，毕竟这是有负面影响的。

ChLop-zz3lq
@abdiganiaden true. But most things are made in China anyway, so while Chinese household's relative wealth in USD would dwindle, living quality wouldn't take a very big hit for most people. Optimally, the devaluation would be accompanied by measures to boost consumption, as China's consumption as a share of GDP is very low. Then living quality would even increase, rather than decrease.

说得对。无论如何，大多数商品都是中国制造的。所以，尽管中国家庭以美元计算的相对财富会减少，但对大多数人来说，生活质量并不会受到太大影响。

最理想的情况是，在货币贬值的同时采取措施刺激消费，因为中国的消费在国内生产总值中所占的比例非常低。这样一来，人们的生活质量甚至会提高，而不是下降。

markxueyuan
Can US Avoid Rome's Collapse?

美国能否避免重蹈罗马帝国覆灭的覆辙？

oceanwave4502
US National Debt: +36,400 billion dollars.

美国国债：超过36.4万亿美元。

ksans6764
​@oceanwave4502 And it keeps growing

而且这个债务还在不断增加。

SammyCee23
Ancient China was more advanced than Rome too

古代中国也比罗马更先进。

Kevin-cm5kc
'We're seeing China's economy look a lot like Japan's, such as stagnant growth'
5% is 'stagnant growth'?

“我们看到中国经济在很多方面很像日本，比如增长停滞。”

5%的增长率也叫“增长停滞”？

カータ-l7e
As a Japanese, I believe there are three reasons why the Japanese economy stagnated for 30 years.
1, Plaza Accord of 1985: The yen was weak, but the exchange rate was forced to appreciate, which plunged Japan into a bubble economy. (The bubble economy is excessive and not accompanied by the actual situation.)
2, Intensifying competition in the manufacturing industry, which is one of Japan's strengths. (Due to the development of Chinese and Korean technology, things have become commodities → Japanese-made products are no longer selling well.)
3, Decrease in consumption due to deflationary mindset

作为一个日本人，我认为日本经济停滞30年有三个原因。

1. 1985年的《广场协议》：当时日元疲软，但汇率却被迫升值，这使日本陷入了泡沫经济

2. 日本的优势产业之一，制造业的竞争日益激烈。（由于中国和韩国的技术发展，产品趋于同质化，日本制造的产品不再畅销。）

3. 由于存在通缩心态，消费减少。

srfin24
why they sign plaza accord? I'm not economist and I knew this is bad

他们为什么要签署《广场协议》呢？我不是经济学家，但我知道这不是什么好事。

nnkk7742
@srfin24 You could argue that they wanted the purchasing power that comes with a stronger currency but didn't expect such a dramatic shift. You could argue the real issue is not taking corrective action earlier regarding their asset bubbles. In reality America probably didn't give them much of a choice.

你可以说他们想要通过货币升值获得更强的购买力，但没想到会出现如此巨大的转变。你也可以说真正的问题在于，他们没有尽早对资产泡沫采取纠正措施。实际上，美国可能根本没给他们太多选择的余地。

keatingyuan830
As a Chinese , I felt Japanese tried to challenge the U.S. hegemony in the 1980s but failed due to the plaza record.

作为一个中国人，我觉得日本在20世纪80年代试图挑战美国的霸权地位，但由于《广场协议》而失败了。

hurrikkkanes2533
@srfin24 they cannot say no sadly, they have us military bases in their country

遗憾的是，他们无法说“不”，因为美国在他们国家设有军事基地。

user-zy9nd2ei2j
Because as always Japan was under the thumb of another power. It was China, now the American and soon if it is not careful the Chinese again.

因为日本一直以来都受其他强国的控制。以前是中国，现在是美国，如果不小心的话，说不定很快又会回到受中国影响的局面

HarisFredericoh
Japan is a pet, US is the owner

日本就像是美国的宠物，美国是主人。

カータ-l7e
@user-zy9nd2ei2j The US is basically ignorant about the situation in Asia. Japan is the most anti-Co unist country in east Asia, but the U.S. hindered Japan's economic development.

美国基本上对亚洲的局势一无所知。日本是东亚最反共的国家，但美国却阻碍了日本的经济发展。

ianyilu9574
Most important: US is your master and Japan can't disobey US.

最重要的是：美国是日本的主子，日本不敢违抗美国。

eiserVergeDelfin-fv4hq
As long as they're not signing anything with Western countries like what happened with Japan when they signed the 1985 Plaza Accord.

只要他们不像日本在1985年签署《广场协议》那样，与西方国家签署类似的协议就行。

siriusman6169
They're not, and that's the reason for American pivot to Asia Pacific

他们中国不会签署那样的协议的，而这正是美国实施“亚太再平衡”战略的原因。

TheonormalMBV
Plaza Accord didn't really cause the lost decades as much as you think it did, it was mostly Japan's own fiscal policy. Honestly I don't see any way China even can avoid the same situation since they're starting off per capita poorer while having somehow a worse demographic crisis.

《广场协议》对日本“失去的十年”的影响，并没有你想象的那么大，主要还是日本自身的财政政策问题。说实话，我看不到中国有什么办法能避免类似的情况，因为中国起步时人均收入更低，而且还面临着更为严峻的人口危机。

SSELoves80085
we have a saying in nepali which translated in english will be equivalent to: you are searching for lice on someone's Head while not talking about buffalo on your own Head.

我们尼泊尔有句谚语，翻译成英文意思差不多是：你在别人头上找虱子，却对自己头上的“大水牛”只字不提。

justingriffin2546
Its lucky China is a lot smarter than Bloomberg originals

幸运的是，中国比彭博社明智多了。

GunmanYeoh
Off course, no U.S. military bases in China and no need for US defence Umbrella unlike Japan while Germany is in Japan's lost decade now.

当然中国不会重蹈日本覆辙，中国没有美国军事基地，也不像日本那样需要美国的军事保护，而德国现在正处于类似日本“失去的十年”的境地。

MelvinStaRita-yb2fm
China will fare better than Japan did.

中国的情况会比日本当年要好。

ans6764
China is not Japan. China can never be contained. End of discussion

中国不是日本。永远不可能被遏制。无需再讨论。

mivy890
China will not become like Japan. They continue to invest in technology and research, striving to compete on the cutting edge of the world. Japan, on the other hand, has abandoned new things with its aging population and tried to protect what it already has. That is the biggest difference.

中国不会重蹈日本覆辙的。中国持续在技术和科研方面进行投资，努力在世界前沿领域展开竞争。而日本则由于人口老龄化，放弃了对新事物的追求，只试图保护已有的成果。这就是最大的区别。

继续阅读：日本   中国经济

此文由 三泰虎 编辑，未经允许不得转载！：首页 > 资讯 » 中国能否避免重蹈日本“失去十年”的覆辙