Investing in China vs. India: Two money managers reveal their favorite

投资中国还是印度：两位基金经理透露他们的偏好

Gareth Nicholson, CIO (International Wealth Management) of Nomura, and Florian Weidinger, CIO of Santa Lucia Asset Management, discuss the divergence in performance of the two markets, the importance of investor psychology, tech disruption, and in which parts of the markets they see opportunities.

野村证券（国际财富管理）首席投资官加雷思·尼科尔森，以及圣卢西亚资产管理公司首席投资官弗洛里安·魏丁格，探讨了这两个市场在表现上的差异、投资者心理的重要性、科技变革的影响，以及他们在市场的哪些领域看到了投资机会。

In the last few months, India has lost $20 billion in terms of foreign institutional outflows. You know, a lot of that money has gone into China, specifically Chinese debt and essentially Chinese equities.

Well, for us, if we zoom out for a second, the biggest factor at the moment is geopolitics, right? Actually, that is something that's difficult to base trading on. What we do like trading on is the idea of local champions. So, if deglobalization started before Trump and has been really supercharged during Trump's time, we're going to have to find local champions. And in two big areas, China and India, local champions can be found.

So, we think there are opportunities in both. But arguably, China has seen some growth in the past. You know, maybe six months ago, it was very difficult to justify some of these costs, thinking that these local champions were going to be able to keep powering through. Whilst on the other end, china has been very undervalued from a valuation perspective.

在过去的几个月里，外国机构资金外流，印度已经损失了200亿美元。要知道，其中很大一部分资金流入了中国，具体来说是流入了中国的债券领域，并且从本质上讲也流入了中国的股票市场。

嗯，对我们来说，如果暂且从宏观角度来看，目前最大的影响因素是地缘政治，对吧？实际上，这是一个很难作为交易依据的因素。我们真正喜欢基于其进行交易的是本土龙头企业这个概念。所以，如果逆全球化在特朗普上台前就已经开始，并且在特朗普执政期间急剧加速，那么我们将不得不寻找本土龙头企业。而在中国和印度这两个大的区域，都能够找到本土龙头企业。

因此，我们认为这两个国家都存在机会。但可以说，中国在过去已经有了一定的发展。要知道，大概在六个月前，很难说得通这些成本中的一部分是否合理，当时认为这些本土龙头企业将能够持续发展下去。而另一方面，从估值的角度来看，中国企业一直被严重低估了。

以下是外国网友的评论：

saptarshidas9365
These comments make me realise why it India took 70 years and still not yet developed

这些评论让我明白，为何印度耗费70年时光，却依旧未能实现发展。

sriranjanim1460
Because Indian voter 70 Years to a dynasty who were bother about their family welfare

因为70年来，印度选民一直支持着一个只关心家族福祉的家族政权。

saptarshidas9365
@sriranjanim1460 bjp too is turning into dynasty welfare ,and read my comment again,i didn't mention any parties,i just said the political situation of india

印度人民党（BJP）也逐渐沦为谋取家族福利的工具了。你再仔细看看我的评论，我并未提及任何政党，我只是在阐述印度的政治现状。

okman9684
China still declare intself as develo country

中国至今仍宣称自己是发展中国家。

sriranjanim1460
@saptarshidas9365 haha when did I mention any party. I too mentioned it as dynasty politics, but you took the name . Likewise read my comment properly. Happy to know that even when I dint take name you related it to someone

哈哈，我什么时候提过什么政党了。我也只是说这是家族政治罢了，可你却点了名。同样地，你也该好好看看我的评论。有意思的是，即便我没指名道姓，你还是联想到了某些人。

eymaslacker
But.. but... advanced technology like plastic surgery and satellites already exsted in Vedic times!

但是，像整形手术和卫星这样的先进技术，据说在吠陀时代印度就已经有了！

rohitkadam2
Last 30 years, India is the second best performing market in dollar terms, after the US, with a massive outperformance vs China. Hard to beat India in long term compounding. Obviously, no market is linear! A good way to ascertain Indias rise is to see how its weight in the MSCI Em/Asia has steadily inched up over time.

在过去30年里，以美元计算，印度是表现第二好的市场，仅次于美国，其表现远超中国。

从长期复利来看，很难有能超过印度的。

显然，没有哪个市场是呈直线发展的！确定印度崛起的一个好办法，就是看看它在明晟新兴市场指数（MSCI Em）和亚洲指数中的权重是如何随着时间稳步上升的。

TheLionKing2345
@rohitkadam2 that's exactly the point, this outperformance has made the broader market very expensive.. nifty is not as outlandishly overvalued but SMIDs for sure.

The underlying earnings aren't growing at 20%

So there ll be a time correction until the valuations revert to mean and Midcaps need to correct further 25% to come to reasonable levels.

这正是关键所在，这种出色表现使得整体市场估值过高。印度国家证券交易所50指数（Nifty）倒没有被离谱地高估，但中小型股（SMIDs）肯定是高估了。其基础收益并没有以20%的速度增长。所以，市场会经历一段时间的调整，直至估值回归均值，而中型股还需再回调25%才能达到合理水平。

zhuosmulticloudtransformat2655
R U sure? Where is the data came from?

你确定吗？这些数据是从哪儿来的呢？

rednihb
China is at 14 to 15 PE ratio and India at 20, so India is still overvalued

中国的市盈率在14到15之间，而印度是20，所以印度的估值仍然偏高。

LaowaiDaveJCP
Indians are hilarious

印度人真是滑稽可笑。

blackhead2140
India is a better bet when it comes to long term investments

长期投资的话，印度是个更值得下注的选择。

eymaslacker
Vodafone is a textbook case of the danger of investing in India. Those who do end up being Vodafone the 2nd, well don't complain because you never did your due dilligence

沃达丰（Vodafone）就是在印度投资存在风险的典型案例。那些最终落得和沃达丰一样下场的人，可别抱怨，你们根本就没有做好市场调查。

mayankseth6684
India can't beat china but look for sustainability growth

印度无法超越中国，但可以追求可持续增长。

exokiller1726
Indians don’t invest there money in India then why we?

印度人自己都不把钱投在印度，那我们为什么要投呢？

iamsheep
What are they talking about? There was 42billion FDI into India in 2024, versus 115billion for China, and that's after a drop of 27%. This virtue signalling on preferring India is hilarious.

他们在说些什么呀？2024年，印度的外国直接投资为420亿美元，而中国是1150亿美元，并且这还是在印度的外国直接投资下降了27%之后的数据。那些宣称更看好印度的虚伪言论实在是太可笑了。

reubennelson4086
things about to change son

情况就要改变了，小子。

kartikchawla007
it's funny, more Chinese retail investors preferred indian stocks and funds 1 year ago than indians preferring Chinese stocks or funds.

真有意思，一年前，偏好印度股票和基金的中国个人投资者数量，居然比偏好中国股票和基金的印度个人投资者数量还要多。

bingbing3464
FYI those are all chinese companies, infrastructures and investments lol. It is changing indeed China is moving away from being dependent on FDI but instead the one investing.

告诉你一声，那些可全都是中国公司、中国的基础设施建设和中国的投资，哈哈。情况确实在改变，中国不再依赖外国直接投资，反而成为了投资的一方。

TheLionKing2345
You're absolutely right.. theres an unprecedented level of arrogance prevalent among policymakers, market operators, even business journalists ..with a proclamation that FIIs need india,.India doesn't need FIIs..
Even our Fin Min said extremely arrogant things ..with the top ministers asking gullible retail investors to invest into PSUs at the absolute peak of valuations .. and those stocks have corrected the most.

你说得太对了。如今，政策制定者、市场经营者，甚至商业记者中都弥漫着一种前所未有的傲慢情绪。他们宣称外国机构投资者（FII）需要印度，而印度不需要外国机构投资者。就连我们的财政部长都说出了极其傲慢的话。一些高级部长还鼓动容易轻信他人的个人投资者在估值最高点时投资国有企业，而这些股票的回调幅度也是最大的。

garri6376
India has longway to go .. india had suffered a lot in past with 4 wars , India's economic growth started after 1990s so its just been 34 years for india...india can outperform china in terms of growth in coming 25 30 years..but indian government mainly and buisness houses need work a lot towards that path

印度还有很长的路要走。过去，印度经历了4场战争，吃了不少苦头。印度的经济增长是从20世纪90年代后才开始的，到现在也就34年时间。在未来25到30年里，印度经济增长是有可能超过中国的。不过，主要是印度政府和企业需要付出更多努力。

rednihb
Well the Chinese growth also started in the 1990’s and they did a historically unprecedented high rate of growth for some 2 and a half decades, hard to see India getting there yet, without manufacturing it will be tough and we haven’t touched the main things that holds back manufacturing, the labour laws and taxes, excise, and babudom

嗯，中国的经济增长也是从20世纪90年代开始的，并且在大约25年的时间里实现了历史上前所未有的高速增长。

目前来看，印度很难达到那样的水平。如果没有制造业的支撑，发展会很艰难，而且我们还没有触及到那些制约制造业发展的关键因素，比如劳动法、税收、消费税以及官僚主义问题。

darklordext3440
@rednihb i think he mean that india open and liberalized its economy in 1990 while china did it 15-20 years before india...and china full filed the market demand with supply and took huge portion of world manufacturing...china basically filled that gap before india even hadn't the chance so now its hard for india to be at china level of manufacturing so india should focus on both tech and manufacturing sectors...rather than just relying on manufacturing...but india is clearly 20 years behind china

我觉得他的意思是，印度在1990年才开放并实现经济自由化，而中国比印度早了15到20年，并且中国通过供给满足了市场需求，占据了全球制造业的很大份额。

基本上，中国在印度还没机会的时候就填补了空白。所以现在印度很难达到中国的制造业水平。印度应该同时关注科技和制造业领域，而不是仅仅依赖制造业。但很明显，印度在这方面落后中国20年。

NoFrillz-G
You wants to lose you money, do business in India

如果想赔钱，那就去印度做生意吧。

jojored7966
Invest in India, spend in India, don’t even think about taking a penny home!! India will use all kinds of excuses to take all your money!! A high-risk investment destination, where does India get its confidence from!

印度投资印度花，一分别想带回家！印度会找各种各样的借口把你的钱都敲诈走！

这是个高风险的投资目的地，印度的自信到底从何而来啊！

tydf229
For India, it is long way to go. Infrastructure gotta be developed first, road, electricity, supply chain and well educated workforce

印度还有很长的路要走。首先得发展基础设施，包括道路、电力、供应链，还要培养受过良好教育的劳动力。

msdadsfsx
why still not developed?

为什么还没有发展起来呢？

prakhargupta1405
​ @msdadsfsx because we Got Independence only 75 year's ago and our Economic growth started after 1993 . And Between this time we fought 4 wars against the west and won , Became a Nuclear Country then came the Sanctions and it's only in 2007 those sanctions were removed

我们在75年前才获得独立，我们的经济增长是从1993年之后才开始的。在这期间，我们和西方国家打了4场战争并且都取得了胜利，还成为了一个核国家，随后就遭到了制裁，直到2007年这些制裁才被解除。

rednihb
@prakhargupta1405 Plenty of countries got Independence around the same time, some even afterwards, and they have done so much better, ( including China). So 75 years of Independence doesn’t work as an excuse, further, no India hasn’t fought any war with the “ west”. Pakistan isn’t the west, no western country put any troops into battle against us, some countries supported Pakistan because of India’s dalliances with the USSR.

很多国家差不多在同一时期获得独立，有些甚至比印度还晚，但它们发展得比印度好得多，包括中国。所以，独立75年并不能成为借口。而且，印度并没有和“西方”打过任何战争。巴基斯坦可不是西方，没有哪个西方国家派军队和我们打过仗，有些国家支持巴基斯坦是因为印度和苏联走得近。

desmond7914
It's not fair to compare superpower India with that of another develo country like China.

把超级大国印度和像中国这样的发展中国家相提并论是不公平的。

chikinhsieh1503
India have better technology and hardworking ppl. Indians love clean. The country is very safe, even young girl go out alone is v v v safe, not like China, poor unsafe and super currupted

印度拥有更先进的技术，还有勤劳的人民。印度人爱干净。这个国家非常安全，就连年轻女孩独自出门也超级超级安全，可不像中国，又穷又不安全

ssa6227
What are you talking about? There has been a huge exst of investors from India.
Even Indians have no hope in India. They are leaving India.
Paid by India still can't paint a rosy picture

你在说什么呀？已经有大量投资者撤离印度了。就连印度人自己都对印度不抱希望了，他们正在离开印度。即便拿了印度的好处，也不能把印度吹成天堂啊

WildDisease72
China is factually the better investment

事实上，中国是更好的投资选择。

YTS_Boom
China is a World Power, India has a long way to go. People should buy where they can make money!

中国是一个世界强国，印度还有很长的路要走。人们应该在能赚钱的地方投资！

gamba4605
I like China for their efforts in development. But in this case foreign should pick india for a safer bet. There's lots of competition in China where if you couldn't adept you will be force to close the shop. For india even though red tape is strong foreign investors can easily survive if they have good products. The problem of india isn't the presence of competition but birocracy. Same with investing in stock. China is highly controlled market unlike india. Hair cutting saloon app company in india got higher PE than the equivalent in China. So choose india. China is good as what it is rn. They can take care of themselves

我欣赏中国付出的发展努力。不过目前，外国投资者应该选择印度，这是更稳妥的赌注。

中国市场竞争激烈，如果你无法适应，就会被迫关门大吉。

对于印度来说，尽管官僚主义严重，但只要外国投资者有好的产品，就很容易生存下来。

印度的问题不在于竞争，而在于官僚作风。投资股票也是如此。中国的市场管控程度比印度高。

印度的一家美发沙龙应用程序公司的市盈率比中国类似公司的市盈率要高。

所以选择印度吧。中国现在也很不错，他们能够照顾好自己。

beeman5015
Incredible India!

不可思议的印度！

kavitachauhan6868
Being an Indian also I appreciate China for investment and their system

作为一个印度人，我也赞赏中国在投资方面的成就以及中国的制度。

ryanthyag2723
India’s GDP growth numbers are real and I think India will be the country of growth in the next decade. China by numbers will still dominate

印度的GDP增长数据是真实的，我认为印度为未来十年会继续增长。不过从数据上看，中国仍将占据主导地位。

ashokdev2011
Invest india and we will help to make america Great again. Ee can also be of America first policy and we can also grow along with you

投资印度吧，我们会帮助美国再次实现伟大。我们也可以奉行美国优先政策，并且和你们一起发展。

Richard-dd3mm
Global buzmen start to figure out that India is not investable but only gambling for the short-term. Everyone lies. From the top to the bottom. No honest people in this country and yet they are arrogant and so talkative. It’s just all talking big and acting small. Terrible!

全球的商界人士开始意识到，印度不是一个值得投资的地方，而只是一个短期赌博的场所。从上到下，所有人都在说谎。这个国家没有一个诚实的人，而且他们既傲慢又爱夸夸其谈。完全就是说得好听，做得却很差劲。太糟糕了！

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