印度什么时候才能成为世界上最富有且最发达的国家呢

When will India become the richest and most developed country in the world?

印度什么时候才能成为世界上最富有且最发达的国家呢？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Philip Yap
India is already top in many fields. they are rich in unique cultures, they should prserve and maintain them by all mean. The cast system is exceptional, a rich cultural value unique to the country.

印度在许多领域已位居前列。其独特文化丰富多彩，理应用尽一切办法加以保护和传承。种姓制度非同寻常，是该国独有的深厚文化价值体现。

The decentralized system is one of the richest in the world, according to a commentater, a load of goods tranported across the country potentially subjected to not less than 3 rounds of taxes by provinces it cross. A unique and ecceptionally rich tax system not available on any part of the earth.

据一位评论员所言，印度的权力分散体制堪称世界上最繁复的体制之一。一批货物在国内运输时，途经的省份很可能会对其征收不少于三轮的税。这是一种独一无二、极为复杂的税收制度，在世界其他任何地方都找不到。

Similarly the bureacratic system are rich in techniques, unique in hooking its prey, it will be exceptionally challenging for any foreigner and foreign company to deal with them.

同样，印度的官僚体制手段繁多，在达成目的方面别具一格，对于任何外国人和外国公司而言，与他们打交道都极具挑战性。

Most major cities in India are rich in pollution, it will be difficult for any other city around the world to challenge them. Cows are sacked animals and their urine are rich in medical values, their discharges have good protective and defensive values and utilities, often use to protect dwelling against diseases and evil spirit.

印度的大多数主要城市污染严重，世界上其他城市很难与之“比肩”。牛是神圣的动物，其尿液药用价值颇高，排泄物具有良好的保护和防御功效，常被用来守护住宅，抵御疾病和邪祟。

India is already the richest in many unique ways and qualities, they just have to preserve and promote them to the outside world to be the most developed country in the world.

印度在诸多独特方面和特质上已然“富甲一方”，只需将这些加以保护并向世界推广，便能成为世界上最发达的国家。

Deepak Menon
Richest and most developed - probably never from a per capita basis.
However, we can become a developed country by 2050 with a per capita of 20000 USD if we continue to grow at 7–8% consistently over the next 25 years .
To become the richest country from a nominal GDP perspective - i think we will need to sustain this growth for even longer - 40 -50 years and could overtake China as the richest country in the world by 2060–70 . Assuming of course that china’s population will continue to shrink and its GDP growth will go down to 1–2% over the next decade or so.

从人均角度来看，要成为最富有和最发达的国家，或许绝无可能。

然而，如果在未来25年里持续以7%至8%的速度稳定增长，到2050年我们便能成为一个人均收入达20000美元的发达国家。

从名义国内生产总值的角度来看，要成为最富有的国家，我认为我们需要这种增长态势保持更久，大概40到50年，这样或许能在2060年至2070年间超越中国，成为世界上最富有的国家。当然，这是基于中国人口将持续减少，且其GDP增速在未来十年左右会降至1%至2%的这一假设。

Ishan Dutta
Hope before the end of this century but there is a lot of work to be done.
The gap with US is not mere 2x or 3x it’s about 35x. To bring down 35x gap to nil it would take lot of effort from all Indian citizens.

希望在本世纪末实现成为最发达和最富有国家的目标，但还有大量工作要做。

与美国的差距并非仅仅2倍或3倍，而是大约35倍。要将这35倍的差距缩小至零，需要全体印度公民付出巨大努力。

Giridharan Velamore
When was India considered the most developed and wealthy country on Earth? Will it ever reach that status again?

Let me answer the first part of the question - when was India considered the most developed?

India was the most developed and wealth country on earth for the most known history. Since 1st millennium BC to the end of the Mughal rule India had been the most developed country closely followed by China. Between 1000 AD to 1500 AD, China’s economy was the highest closely followed by India. It was the time period when India was successfully invaded. Once again between 1500 AD to 1800 AD, India’s economy was the highest closely followed by China. That was the time of the Mughal period. After 1800 AD, both India and China economies began to flounder and Western economies like that of Britain, France etc., prospered. Since the World wars, the economy of the US has been the highest.

One of the reasons many visitors and outside empires visited China and India has been to trade and study how their societies and economies have developed over the years. India in 17th century was like USA of present day. And within the Mughal empire, Bengal subah was the richest like present day California in the US.

Now coming to the 2nd part of the question, will it ever reach that status again?

Yes, without a doubt. Currently India is the fifth biggest economy, behind USA, China, Germany and Japan. India is on the path to achieve greater economic achievements in the coming decades. It’ll soon become 3rd biggest economy after USA and China. We can’t predict how those countries will evolve but India may become the 2nd and possibly the biggest economy in the world. No one can yet tell when.

印度何时被认为是世界上最发达和最富有的国家呢？它还能再次达到那种地位吗？

让我来回答第一个问题——印度何时被认为是最发达的？

在已知的大部分历史时期，印度都是世界上最发达和最富有的国家。从公元前一千年到莫卧儿王朝统治结束，印度一直是最发达的国家，紧随其后的是中国。在公元1000年至1500年期间，中国的经济规模最大，印度紧随其后。这一时期印度遭到了成功入侵。在公元1500年至1800年期间，印度的经济规模再次位居首位，中国紧随其后，这正是莫卧儿王朝时期。公元1800年之后，印度和中国的经济都开始陷入困境，而英国、法国等西方经济体则繁荣起来。自世界大战以来，美国的经济一直处于领先地位。

许多游客和外来帝国访问中国和印度的原因之一，便是进行贸易，并研究这些国家的社会和经济多年来是如何发展的。17世纪的印度就如同当今的美国。在莫卧儿帝国时期，孟加拉省是最富有的地区，就如同当今美国的加利福尼亚州。

现在来回答第二个问题，印度还能再次达到那种地位吗？

毫无疑问，能。目前印度是世界第五大经济体，仅次于美国、中国、德国和日本。在未来几十年里，印度正朝着取得更大经济成就的方向前进。它很快将成为仅次于美国和中国的第三大经济体。我们无法预测那些国家会如何发展，但印度有可能成为世界第二大经济体，甚至有可能成为世界最大的经济体。只是目前还没人能说出具体时间。

Mohan Kalaiselvan
When the Indian minds are freed from Caste, religion . blind faiths and become scientific. People with rich and developed mind only can create a rich and developed country.

当印度人的思想从种姓制度、宗教和盲信中解放出来，并变得具有科学性时才行。只有拥有丰富且发达思想的人，才能创造出一个富裕且发达的国家。

Balakrishnan Lakshmanan
It need not become richest, Indians/People's behavior, thinking, lifestyle has to be examplary in the first place. So let us pray and practice good acceptable behavior. Each one of us have to work towards civilized lifestyle, refined behavior. In terms of culture we are already rich, no point in becoming economically rich, when our character and conduct is sick, drained in a gutter.

印度无需成为最富有的国家，首先，印度人的行为、思维和生活方式必须堪称典范。所以，让我们心怀祈愿并践行良好且可被接受的行为。我们每个人都要努力追求文明的生活方式和高雅的行为举止。就文化而言，我们已然富足，倘若我们的品德和行为恶劣不堪、堕落至谷底，那么变得经济富裕也毫无意义。

Liya Shah
Let me counter-question you:
How long will it take Indians to be extremely hard working, be realists and stop fantasizing India will be a Superpower?
Don’t be angry with this answer rather improve your thinking skills.

让我反问你：

印度人要多久才能变得极其勤奋努力，成为现实主义者，并停止幻想印度会成为超级大国呢？
别对这个答案感到生气，而是要提升自己的思维能力。

Pabitra Saha
At this rate, never. It may find it hard to even retain its 3 years old position, in next 2–3 years.

照目前的速度，绝无可能成为最发达和最富有国家。在未来两到三年内，它甚至可能难以维持其现有的地位。

Venkata Ramakrishna Duvvuri
Never. By the time India advances, the other countries could advance still further. So on and so forth. It is a never ending race. Alternatively you should stop them from progressing further until we are on par with them. This is possible of course if we have a world government aiming at uniformity in progress.

绝无可能。等到印度取得进展时，其他国家可能会取得更大的进步。如此循环往复。这是一场永无止境的竞赛。或者，在我们与其他国家并驾齐驱之前，你应该阻止它们进一步发展。当然，如果我们有一个致力于实现共同发展的世界政府，这倒是有可能实现。

Kirthi Anand Karthikeyan

The following policies must be implemented as soon as possible to become the number one country in the world
Introduce and promote Cooperative societies across all fields of life.

Bring banking reforms in every possible way.

Make savings like PF, PPF and insurances compulsory for every citizen.

Government should disinvest from Public Sector Industries and invest in private sector industry. Support start-ups and international coopertive projects.

Improve ties with every countries in the world to have a technical and economical trade and cultural exchanges.

Focus on Infrastructure upgrades time and again. The five year plans should the phases of long-term plans rather than just simple five year plans.
Recycling and reusing of products should be promoted.

Lesser dependency on imports must be a priority. Mass manufacturing should be appreciated with research.

Spreadout industries across the nation. Craftsmanship of various cultural and industrial items should be promoted.

要成为世界第一强国，必须尽快实施以下政策：

在生活的各个领域引入并推广合作社。

尽一切可能推行银行改革。

强制每位公民进行诸如公积金、公共公积金和保险之类的储蓄。

政府应从公共部门产业撤资，并投资于私营部门产业。支持初创企业和国际合作项目。

改善与世界各国的关系，开展技术、经济贸易和文化交流。

反复关注基础设施的升级。五年计划应成为长期规划的阶段，而不只是简单的五年计划。

应推广产品的回收和再利用。

减少对进口的依赖必须列为优先事项。大规模制造应与研究相结合并得到重视。

在全国范围内分散产业布局。应推广各类文化和工业产品的工艺技术。

Mohan Kalaiselvan
May be half a century under progressive minded corporates who believe in paying fair wages for good work , under a government that invests heavily to develop the main resource we have that is human resource and political parties that promote welfare economy .

或许需要半个世纪的时间，前提是有秉持进步理念、愿意为出色工作支付合理工资的企业，有大力投资开发我们的主要资源即人力资源的政府，以及推动福利经济的政党。

Mahanthesh G R
I think India should take that position but shouldn't not take that title.
Because prime example is china it is economic Super power but it's thirst for title landed it directly in the firinig line of economic and military power houses and US in particular goes to any extent to tackle a country that poses threat to its title.

我认为印度应该占据那个位置，但不应获得那个头衔（世界最发达和最富有国家的头衔）。

因为中国就是一个典型例子，中国是经济超级大国，但对这一头衔的追求使其直接处于经济和军事强国的“风口浪尖”，尤其是美国会想尽一切办法对付任何对其经济军事强国地位构成威胁的国家。

Paras Mehar
The Republic of India is considered one of the emerging superpowers of the world.In 2015, India became the world's fastest growing economy with a 7.5% estimated GDP rate (mid year terms). The country must overcome many economic, social, and political problems before it can be considered a superpower. It is also not yet as influential on the international stage when compared to the United States and former Soviet Union.
Points against the rise of India as a superpower
1political
2economical
3ecological
4social
As a country must overcome many economic, social, and political problems before it can be considered a superpower

印度共和国被认为是世界上正在崛起的超级大国之一。2015年，印度成为世界上增长最快的经济体，预计国内生产总值增长率为7.5%（年中数据）。在被视为超级大国之前，这个国家必须克服许多经济、社会和政治问题。与美国和前苏联相比，它在国际舞台上的影响力也还不够。
阻碍印度崛起成为超级大国的因素：

1. 政治方面
2. 经济方面
3. 生态方面
4. 社会方面

因为一个国家在被视为超级大国之前，必须克服诸多经济、社会和政治问题。

Niranjan B
India's population is simply too high become a developed country in our lifetime. Norway is currently the most developed country in the world. But, we can't compare it with India as Norway's population is only about 50 lacs (275X less than India). Norway is an oil rich country, India is not. So, let's take a large country for comparison. The most developed among the large countries is none other than the United States. But, the US still has only 1/4th of India's population and it has the highest nominal GDP in the world. India is not even close. To be on par with the US, India's GDP should at least 4 times that of the US. It's practically impossible to achieve something like that even in centuries. So, the only country we can try to overtake is China. China too is far ahead and well on it's way to become the largest economy of the world by 2040 (or earlier). If India reduces it's population to pre-independence levels and works really hard, it may become a developed country in the 2200s. 19th century saw the rise of the UK, 20th century saw the rise of the US, 21th century, we are seeing the rise of PR China, 22nd century or 23rd century could see the rise of India if we start working towards it now.

印度的人口实在太多，在我们有生之年很难成为发达国家。挪威目前是世界上最发达的国家。但我们不能将其与印度相提并论，因为挪威的人口仅约500万（比印度少275倍）。挪威是一个石油资源丰富的国家，而印度不是。所以，让我们找一个大国来进行比较。在大国中，最发达的当属美国。然而，美国的人口也仅为印度的四分之一，但其名义国内生产总值却是世界最高。

印度与之相差甚远。要与美国并驾齐驱，印度的国内生产总值至少应是美国的四倍。即便花上几个世纪，要实现这一目标实际上也是不可能的。所以，我们唯一可以尝试超越的国家是中国。中国也遥遥领先，很有可能在2040年（或更早）成为世界最大的经济体。如果印度将人口减少到独立前的水平，并真正努力发展，或许能在23世纪成为发达国家。19世纪见证了英国的崛起，20世纪见证了美国的崛起，21世纪我们正见证着中华人民共和国的崛起，如果我们现在就开始努力，22世纪或23世纪或许能见证印度的崛起。

Pradip Gangopadhyay
We can make an estimate assuming an average economic growth rate and inflation. Let us assume that Indian economic will grow at an average rate of 5 % with an inflation rate of 4 % per year. That would mean that Indian economy will double every 8 years. If India economy keeps doubling every 8 years for 32 years then Indian GDP will be (16 x Rs 200 trillion) Rs 3200 trillion. If the $-Re rate is 100 in 2052 then Indian GDP will be $ 32 trillion. The population of India would peak to about 1.6 billion and will then decline. That would mean that Indian GDP/person will be $ 20,000 in 2052 which would imply a near developed status in 32 years. Of course if the $-Re rate is 200 in 2052 then the per capita income will be only $ 10,000. The moot point is that India will become a rich and developed country after 2050.
India’s population is of course depressing India’s per capita income and reducing space per person. It will be 2150 and after when India’s current average population density of 400 persons/sq km will go below 200 persons/sq km.

我们可以假定一个平均经济增长率和通货膨胀率来做估算。假设印度经济以每年5%的平均速度增长，通货膨胀率为4%。这就意味着印度经济每8年就会翻一番。如果印度经济在32年里持续保持每8年翻一番的速度，那么印度的国内生产总值将达到（16乘以200万亿卢比）3200万亿卢比。如果2052年美元兑卢比的汇率为100，那么印度的国内生产总值将是32万亿美元。

印度人口将在达到约16亿的峰值后开始下降。这意味着到2052年，印度的人均国内生产总值将达到2万美元，这表明在32年后印度将接近发达国家水平。当然，如果2052年美元兑卢比的汇率为200，那么人均收入就只有1万美元了。关键在于，印度将在2050年之后成为一个富裕且发达的国家。

印度的人口数量当然会拉低印度的人均收入，并减少人均空间。要到2150年及以后，印度目前每平方公里400人的平均人口密度才会降至每平方公里200人以下。

Anupam Majmudar
Earliest AD 2220, if you have not travelled abroad or lived there, you can have no idea of the gulf. Not only in the prosperity levels but in thought processes. It is a barometer that f society’s development when it learns to give widest opportunities for differing thoughts to develop.. Their institutions are so well developed that is beyond belief here. For example, anyone writing slightly different about our divine figures, his house will be burnt and he will be hounded forever. While there, people have written hundreds of books questioning most piously held beliefs and there is not even a reaction. That is index of development. Physical riches comes after that and we will need centuries to reach that level

最早要到公元2220年。如果你没有出国旅行过或在国外生活过，就无法想象（印度与其他发达国家之间的）差距。这种差距不仅体现在富裕程度上，还体现在思维方式上。当一个社会学会为不同思想的发展提供最广阔的空间时，这便是衡量其发展程度的一个指标。发达国家的制度如此完善，这在印度是令人难以置信的。

例如，在印度，任何对我们的神圣人物有稍有不同看法的人，他的房子可能会被烧毁，而且会永远遭到迫害。而在那些（发达）国家，人们写了数百本书来质疑那些被虔诚秉持的信仰，却甚至不会引发任何反应。这就是发展的标志。物质财富是在此之后才会实现的，而我们需要几个世纪的时间才能达到那种水平。