基肖尔·马布巴尼：《亚洲世纪：不止于中国》，有三点理由

The Asian Century: More Than China| Kishore Mahbubani

基肖尔·马布巴尼：《亚洲世纪：不止于中国》

In the recent Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, Europe finds itself in an awkward position, and even the U.S. appears increasingly overstretched. This is just one of many signs of the West’s decline. The 21st century is undeniably the Asian century—but why is there such confidence in Asia’s rise? Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, offers his profound insights on this global shift.

在近期的俄乌停火谈判中，欧洲发现自身处于一个尴尬的境地，就连美国也显得愈发疲于应对。这只是西方衰落的众多迹象之一。无可否认，21世纪是亚洲的世纪——为何人们对亚洲的崛起如此充满信心呢？新加坡国立大学亚洲研究所杰出研究员基肖尔·马布巴尼，就这一全球性的转变给出了他深刻的见解。

In one lifetime, the European Union can go from being 10 times bigger than China to becoming half the size of China now. Firstly, in terms of why I am absolutely confident that this will be the Asian 21st century, I make three points.

First, of course, is that from the year 1 to the year 1820, for 1800 after the last 2,000 years, the two largest economies of the world have always been those of China and India. So you can see therefore that the past 200 years of Western domination of world history have been an aberration. All aberrations come to a natural end, and that's why it's perfectly natural to see The Return of Asia in the 21st century.

在一个人的有生之年里，欧盟的经济规模从曾经是中国的10倍，发展到如今只有中国的一半大小。首先，我为何坚信21世纪会是亚洲的世纪，我有三点理由。

第一点，当然是从公元1年到1820年，在过去2000年中的1800年时间里，世界上最大的两个经济体一直是中国和印度。所以由此可见，过去200年西方对世界历史的主导其实是一种反常现象。所有的反常现象都会自然终结，这就是为什么在21世纪看到亚洲的复兴是再自然不过的事情了。

But the second reason why I'm confident that it'll be the Asian century is that the Asian countries finally woke up and realized, asking themselves a basic question: why did the West succeed and what can we learn from the success of the West? So in another book of mine, "The Asian 21st Century", I pointed out that the Asian countries are succeeding because they finally absorbed, understood, and implemented the Seven Pillars of Western wisdom. So I can say this quite honestly: we in Asia are succeeding because we learned from the West, and we should actually thank the West for sharing some of its wisdom. And I give you a couple of simple examples. One, the obvious one, is Mastery of Science and Technology. The reason why the West could conquer and colonize the world in the 19th century and 20th century was because they had Superior science and technology. Today, the Mastery of Science and Technology Still Remains strong in the west, but it is also moving very quickly into Asia, and in many areas, Asian scientists are doing better than Western scientists, and this is one example.

而我坚信这将是亚洲世纪的第二个原因是，亚洲国家终于觉醒并意识到了一个基本问题：西方为什么会成功，我们能从西方的成功中学到什么？所以在我的另一本书《21世纪的亚洲》中，我指出亚洲国家之所以取得成功，是因为亚洲国家最终吸收、理解并践行了西方智慧的七大支柱。所以我可以很坦诚地说：我们亚洲之所以成功，是因为我们向西方学习，我们实际上应该感谢西方分享了一些智慧。

我给你们举几个简单的例子。其中一个明显的例子就是对科学技术的掌握。西方在19世纪和20世纪能够征服并殖民世界，原因就在于他们拥有先进的科学技术。如今，西方在科学技术的掌握方面依然实力强劲，但这方面的优势也正迅速向亚洲转移，并且在许多领域，亚洲科学家的表现都优于西方科学家，这就是一个例证。

Secondly, of course, the second Western pillar of wisdom that we've taken full advantage of is the principle of free free market economics, and this is a gift of course from Adam Smith, the Scottish philosopher. But today, paradoxcally, the Asian countries believe more in free market economics than, paradoxcally, the United States, which was the country that gave so many of the ideas in support of free market economics. Today, it is the country, especially under Donald Trump, that is incapable of signing a free trade agreement.

And the third reason why I'm confident it would be the Asian Century is that there has been, especially because of the successes of the last few decades, an enormous boost in the psychological self-confidence of Asians in many, many different corners of Asia.

其次，当然，我们充分利用的西方智慧的第二大支柱就是自由市场经济原则，这当然要归功于苏格兰哲学家亚当·斯密的贡献。但具有讽刺意味的是，如今亚洲国家比美国更相信自由市场经济原则，而美国恰恰是提出了许多支持自由市场经济思想的国家。如今，尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普执政期间，美国却无法签署自由贸易协定。

我坚信这将是亚洲世纪的第三个原因是，特别是由于过去几十年所取得的成功，亚洲许多不同地区的人们在心理上的自信心得到了极大的提升。

以下是外国网友的评论：

workinghero138
India is far behind in a distance!

印度远远地落在后面了！

hervinchung3675
I am confident of that too.

我对此也很有信心。

AlbertFoo-h9c
Perfectly correct

完全正确。

fffuu4444
On the flip side, I am also confident on the decline of US, simply because arrogance is blind siding them from competing, instead they are constantly basking in past glories.

另一方面，我也坚信美国会衰落，原因很简单，傲慢蒙蔽了他们，在竞争中盲目行事，他们没有积极竞争，反而一直沉浸在过去的辉煌之中。

Anders01
Instead of an Asian century I think of it as a Chinese decade! Because after a decade the technological progress will be so fast that it's difficult to predict what will happen.

我觉得与其说是亚洲世纪，不如说是中国的十年！十年之后，技术进步会非常迅速，很难预测会发生什么。

yaoliang1580
The old patato Biden is a nice president, what a real laughing stock

那个老糊涂拜登还真是个“好”总统啊，简直就是个天大的笑柄。

yamhweeyeo3089
Nobody can predict the future.

没人能预知未来。

alfong8279
Wow, good job explaining why this is now the Asia century, thanks.

哇，把为什么现在是亚洲世纪解释得很到位，多谢。

siewkonsum7291
No one country in world can copy & emulate the Chinese so successful way of system of government & socio-development;
Which are mainly due to their ingenious way of life & work, self correcting & evolving social & cultural structures, enduring heritage and 5,000 years of unbroken civilization.

世界上没有一个国家能够复制和效仿中国如此成功的政府体制和社会发展模式；

这主要得益于他们别具匠心的生活和工作方式，自我修正、不断演进的社会和文化结构，以及经久不衰的文化遗产和绵延五千年未曾中断的文明。

KhunYasoboyYaso-i5c
Chinese culture and Chinese people are extraordinary. No country and people can follow, copy or duplicate China achievement today.

中国文化和中国人民非同凡响。如今，没有哪个国家和民族能够追随、复制或重现中国所取得的成就。

mystictraveler8642
But asia was on the direction, just like any other country towards modernization, but the west prevented it. The west has no wisdom. Their wealth and power was built on the back of colonization. These western countries went on a crusade going country to country destabilizing and preventing many countries from develo. And everything fell on america's lap after the world war II. America got lucky, and they capitalized on it. Many countries were devastated by the wars and broke it all went to the u.S for loans. American technology is built on the backbone of foreign talent. It was mostly asianand Russian scientists and engineers in the west that modernized western tech and made humongous contributions. The u s have not been innovating for over thirty years. If it wasn't for the asian countries and asian talent, they would be non-exstent like nokia.

亚洲原本和其他国家一样，正朝着现代化的方向发展，却遭到了西方的阻挠。西方毫无远见卓识。他们的财富和权力是建立在殖民的基础之上的。这些西方国家四处挑起事端，让一个个国家陷入动荡，阻碍了许多国家的发展。

而二战之后，一切都便宜了美国。美国运气好，还利用这一点大做文章。许多国家因战争而满目疮痍、元气大伤，只能跑到美国去贷款。美国的科技是以外国人才为支柱建立起来的。

在西方，主要是亚洲和俄罗斯的科学家及工程师让西方科技实现了现代化，并做出了重大贡献。美国已经三十多年没有什么创新了。要不是有亚洲国家和亚洲人才，美国恐怕就会像诺基亚一样销声匿迹了。

brianlowe3529
They say China invented the compass .

据说，指南针是中国发明的。

Merdacity
Well yes of course they did

嗯，没错，当然是中国发明的。

peterfischer5459
So many things… a cursory check on chat GPT…
revolutionized writing, record-kee, and education.
2. Printing (Woodblock & Movable Type, 9th–11th Century) – Woodblock printing and later movable type printing (by Bi Sheng) paved the way for mass production of books and knowledge dissemination.
3. Gunpowder (9th Century) – Initially used for fireworks, gunpowder eventually led to the development of firearms and explosives, changing warfare globally.
4. Compass (4th Century BC - 11th Century AD) – The Chinese developed the magnetic compass, essential for navigation and maritime exploration.
5. Silk Production (Before 2700 BC) – China mastered sericulture (silk production), leading to the famous Silk Road trade route.
6. Porcelain (Tang Dynasty, 7th–10th Century) – Chinese porcelain became highly valued worldwide and was later imitated by many cultures.
7. Seismograph (132 AD) – Zhang Heng invented the first known seismograph to detect earthquakes, aiding disaster preparedness.
8. Tea Production (2737 BC, Legend) – China is the birthplace of tea cultivation and drinking, with tea culture spreading globally.
9. Iron Casting (5th Century BC) – The Chinese were pioneers in casting iron, which led to advancements in tools, weaponry, and infrastructure.
10. Paper Money (7th Century, Tang Dynasty) – China was the first to introduce paper money, revolutionizing trade and economies worldwide.

These inventions had a profound impact on China and the rest of the world, sha modern civilization.

这么多中国发明，在Chat GPT上粗略一查

（1）革新了书写、记录和教育方式。

（2）印刷术（雕版印刷和活字印刷，公元9世纪至11世纪）—— 雕版印刷以及后来毕昇发明的活字印刷术，为书籍的大规模生产和知识的传播铺平了道路。

（3）火药（公元9世纪）—— 最初用于制作烟花，后来火药推动了火器和炸药的发展，改变了全球的战争格局。

（4）指南针（公元前4世纪至公元11世纪）—— 中国人发明了磁罗盘，这对航海和海上探险至关重要。

（5）丝绸生产（公元前2700年之前）—— 中国掌握了养蚕缫丝（丝绸生产）技术，促成了著名的丝绸之路贸易路线。

（6）瓷器（唐朝，公元7世纪至10世纪）—— 中国瓷器在全世界都备受珍视，后来被许多文化所模仿。

（7）地动仪（公元132年）—— 张衡发明了已知的第一台地动仪，用于检测地震，有助于备灾工作。

（8）茶叶生产（传说中的公元前2737年）—— 中国是茶叶种植和饮茶的发源地，茶文化也传播到了全球。

（9）铸铁技术（公元前5世纪）—— 中国人是铸铁领域的先驱，这推动了工具、武器和基础设施的进步。

（10）纸币（公元7世纪，唐朝）—— 中国是最早使用纸币的国家，彻底改变了全球的贸易和经济模式。

这些发明对中国和世界其他地区都产生了深远影响，塑造了现代文明。

fredtan1506
Now you know that a Chinese man invented the compass.

现在你知道了吧，指南针是中国人发明的。

ivcbusinesssystems6613
Good stuff, but there is a CLEAR path of Civilization's Science & the scientific method! It starts in Nubia, goes to Egypt, then Greece & Rome served as the conduit of African Civilizations to Europe. From there, Europeans picked up additional Science on their own by traveling to Egypt & China, copying their technology!

说得不错，但文明科学和科学方法有一条清晰的发展脉络！它起源于努比亚，然后传到埃及，接着希腊和罗马成为了非洲文明传入欧洲的通道。从那以后，欧洲人前往埃及和中国，借鉴并复制了当地的技术，从而进一步丰富了自己的科学知识。

PahatRout
Started in Nubia, how come this original civilization could hold its grey matter ?

起源于努比亚，可这个原始文明怎么能孕育出如此的智慧呢？

ivcbusinesssystems6613
@PahatRout I don't understand what you're saying, could you try to reword that?

我不明白你在说什么，你能换种说法吗？