印度在哪些行业能够超越中国？如果有，是哪些行业呢

Can India beat China in any industries? If so, which ones?

印度在哪些行业能够超越中国？如果有，是哪些行业呢？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Zhu Leon

There are definitely some industries where India outperforms China.

肯定有一些行业印度的表现优于中国。

For instance, during my time supplying parts to Chinese tractor manufacturers, I learned from our customers that India produces significantly more tractors than China. In 2022, India produced around 900,000 tractors, accounting for approxmately one-third of the global production, while China produced about 600,000. India and China ranked first and second, respectively, in this industry. I was also surprised to discover that Mahindra Tractors, the largest tractor manufacturer in the world, also has factories in China.

例如，在我为中国拖拉机制造商供应零部件期间，我从客户那里了解到，印度生产的拖拉机数量比中国多得多。2022年，印度生产了约90万台拖拉机，约占全球产量的三分之一，而中国生产了约60万台。在这个行业中，印度和中国分别位居第一和第二。我还惊讶地发现，全球最大的拖拉机制造商马恒达拖拉机公司（Mahindra Tractors）在中国也设有工厂。

I found it fascinating to learn that Indians are building mobile cranes mounted on tractors. This unique innovation is currently only available in India

我觉得很有意思的是，印度人正在制造安装在拖拉机上的汽车起重机。目前，这种独特的创新产品仅在印度才有。

Dr. Vijesh Jain
I was born and brought up in India. I have been a freelance professor of international trade and have the privilege to know little about this subject. What I understand that international trade is built on the principle of comparative and absolute advantages especially when we talk of manufacturing and industries. The concept require cooperation by nations to understand the principles to increase the overall wealth of the nations. That is how world benefits from trade. In these principles there is not question of one nation bearing another in any particular industry. If that approach is used no nation will benefit from international trade. We will then again be forced to adopt the theory of mercantilism where one nation benefit at the cost of another. Partly that has already started in present times. Adam smith must be very uncomfortable at this juncture in his grave seeing this reversal of approach to international trade.

我在印度出生并长大。我曾是一名国际贸易方面的自由职业教授，有幸对这一学科略知一二。据我理解，国际贸易建立在比较优势和绝对优势的原则之上，尤其是当我们谈到制造业和工业的时候。这一概念要求各国相互合作，理解这些原则，从而增加各国的总体财富。这就是世界从贸易中获益的方式。在这些原则下，不存在一个国家在某个特定行业“击败”另一个国家的问题。如果采用那种（相互竞争击败对方的）方式，没有一个国家能从国际贸易中受益。那样的话，我们将不得不再次采用重商主义理论，即一个国家以牺牲另一个国家为代价来获取利益。在当今时代，这种情况在一定程度上已经出现了。亚当·斯密若泉下有知，看到如今国际贸易理念的这种倒退，想必会深感不安。

So therefore if you agree with the benefits and sanctity of theory of absolute advantage and comparative advantage and serious about increasing the wealth of nations through scientific means then probably I will be able to answer this question.

所以，如果你认同绝对优势和比较优势理论所带来的益处及其神圣性，并且真心希望通过科学的方式增加各国财富，那么或许我能够回答这个问题。

Assuming these time tested theories are followed by all nations. Then India will be better off concentrating on industries such as manufacturing of small cars including EVs, focusing on industries that require semi skilled and skilled labour in abundance such as gems and jewellery, textiles, heavy machinery, consumer goods, art and craft, tourism, IT & back office services and some more. China should graduate into complementary industries such as robotics, hi tech electronics, biotechnology, aviation and others. No one need to beat anyone. It is just to be at the right place at the right time. This is the only way to increase the wealth of the nations collectively.

假设所有国家都遵循这些历经时间考验的理论。那么，印度最好专注于一些行业，比如包括电动汽车在内的小型汽车制造，以及那些需要大量半熟练和熟练劳动力的行业，如宝石和珠宝业、纺织业、重型机械、消费品、工艺美术、旅游业、信息技术及后台办公服务等等。而中国则应向一些互补性行业发展，比如机器人技术、高科技电子、生物技术、航空业以及其他相关行业。没有人需要击败其他人，只是要在合适的时间出现在合适的位置上。这是共同增加各国财富的唯一途径。

Rajesh Tiwary
Let's first talk about Japan.

It's 1980s and Japan is growing like a mad boy. At 10–15% per annum. Japan is leading manufacturer of cars , electronics, machine hardwares and many other stuff.

One of the highest per capita GDP and income. Overqualified, highly skilled people everywhere you go. You got to be a millionaire to buy an okayish flat in Tokyo. Money is literally flowing in the streets(Okay I made this one up…)

$ 4.9 trillion economy which was only behind of USA’s $7 trillion economy. Almost every “Expert” predicted that Japan will overtake USA’s economy by 2010 or so…

我们先来谈谈日本。

上世纪八十年代，日本经济的发展势头如日中天，年增长率达到10%至15%。那时，日本是汽车、电子产品、机器硬件以及许多其他产品的主要制造国。

日本的人均国内生产总值和收入在当时处于极高水平。无论走到哪里，都能看到高素质、高技能的人才。在东京，只有百万富翁才买得起一套还算过得去的公寓。当时可谓是“钱满街头”（好吧，这是我夸张了……）

日本的经济总量达到4.9万亿美元，仅次于美国的7万亿美元。几乎所有的“专家”都预测，到2010年左右，日本的经济将超越美国……

But we all know that never really happened. So what went wrong?

As it turned out, almost Everything….. The young Japanese people preferred staying single than marrying and having children.

About 30% Japanese people never marry. So the population started aging rapidly. The population even started declining. The problem with this is, in order to have a flourishing economy you need constant supply of young, innovative work force. And Japan ran out of just that..

So in 1990s, Japan entered a phase of GREAT STAGNATION. That means it showed almost zero growth in last 3 decades!. It's economy is still $4.9 trillion.

但我们都知道，这一切并未成真。那么，到底是哪里出了问题呢？

事实证明，几乎方方面面都出了问题，日本的年轻人更倾向于单身，而不是结婚生子。

大约30%的日本人终身不婚。因此，日本人口开始迅速老龄化，甚至人口数量也开始下降。问题在于，要实现经济的繁荣发展，就需要源源不断的年轻且富有创新精神的劳动力，而日本恰恰缺乏这一点。

于是在二十世纪九十年代，日本进入了一个“大停滞”阶段。这意味着在过去三十年里，日本经济几乎零增长！如今，日本的经济总量仍然维持在4.9万亿美元。

China which had 50 times smaller economy than Japan back in 1980s, ironically has 3 times larger economy compared to Japan today. All that in 4 decades.

The whole point is, as of now, China is indeed doing great in terms of economy as compared to India...

China has foreign reserves of 5 times as India.
China has great infrastructure and it has literally become powerhouse of manufacturing and exports.
It's way above India in anything related economy as of now.

具有讽刺意味的是，上世纪八十年代时，中国的经济规模比日本小五十倍，而如今中国的经济规模却是日本的三倍。这一切的转变仅仅用了四十年。

关键在于，就目前而言，与印度相比，中国在经济方面确实表现出色……

- 中国的外汇储备是印度的五倍。
- 中国拥有完善的基础设施，已然成为制造业和出口领域的强大力量。
- 就目前而言，在任何与经济相关的领域，中国都远远领先于印度。

But the question is for how long?

With controversial one child policy, even China’s population is aging rapidly, talent pool is shrinking too, so what happened to Japan might very well happen to China.

Another thing is, much of China’s progress is based upon it's policy of disrespecting Intellectual property rights and avoiding free trade and thereby curtailing competition. Most of countries including USA have sensed that and as a result now they are demanding China to shed off its trade protectionism.

但问题是，这种情况能持续多久呢？

由于颇具争议的独生子女政策，中国的人口也在迅速老龄化，人才储备也在减少，所以日本曾经经历过的事情很可能也会在中国上演。

另一个问题是，中国的许多发展成就建立在不尊重知识产权、回避自由贸易从而限制竞争的政策之上。包括美国在内的大多数国家都已经察觉到了这一点，因此，现在这些国家要求中国摒弃贸易保护主义。

I laugh gleefully when my fellow Indians say “India can never beat China even in dreams”. Economics is a Bitch…there was a time when Venezuela was developed and Norway was poor country, at world stage it doesn't take a lot of time to go from rag to riches and other way around.

At present India’s potential growth is hugely suppressed by corruption, excessive government control, socialist leaning policies, hostile neighbours and awful education system.. But things are changing rapidly.

当我的印度同胞们说“印度哪怕在梦里都永远无法超越中国”时，我会暗自好笑。经济这东西变化无常…… 曾经有一段时间，委内瑞拉是发达国家，而挪威却是穷国，在世界舞台上，从一贫如洗到富甲一方，或者从富有走向贫穷，往往都不需要太长时间。

目前，印度的增长潜力在很大程度上受到腐败、政府过度管控、倾向社会主义的政策、敌对的邻国以及糟糕的教育体系等因素的抑制。但情况正在迅速改变。

It's not impossible that India becomes 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the world in the next two decades.

Only time will tell whether India leaves China behind or not, Only thing that I can say that it's not impossible.

在未来二十年里，印度成为世界第三或第二大经济体并非不可能。

印度是否能够超越中国，只有时间才能给出答案。我唯一能说的是，这并非毫无可能。

Jack Gao

Is India better than China in everything?

I am from China and now working in US. I have to say India is a better country than China. If we just simply compare those data - GDP, high speed rail way, electric generation, and so on. It will come to the the result that China is better. But if you look a little deeper, you will reveal the true power of India.

印度在所有方面都比中国好吗？

我来自中国，现在美国工作。我得说印度是一个比中国更好的国家。如果我们只是简单比较一下那些数据——国内生产总值、高速铁路、发电量等等，得出的结果会是中国更胜一筹。但如果你深入探究，就会发现印度的真正实力。

India people is exetreme intelligent. IIT is one of best University in the world. There is a saying that student who cannot go to IIT have to go to MIT. India parents attach great important to education. Yes, maybe in currently stage India is still a develo country. But it’s just a matter of time for a country to rise which weight education a lot.

印度人极其聪明。印度理工学院是世界上最好的大学之一。有一种说法是，进不了印度理工学院的学生才会去麻省理工学院。印度的家长非常重视教育。没错，也许在当前阶段印度仍然是一个发展中国家。但对于一个如此重视教育的国家来说，崛起只是时间问题。

Good political architecture. I think it is no need to say any more about this point. Every one know India is the largest de ocratic country . In the long term, Indian will show its power.

良好的政治架构。我觉得这一点无需再多说。大家都知道印度是最大的民诸国家。从长远来看，印度会展现出它的力量。

Great history and culture. India has a magnificent history and culture. One of “The Four Great Ancient Civilizations”. India and China have many in common. We both have brilliant history and culture, as well as a dark time of being colonized.The Western bully us for centuries. India and China should not be enemy, on the contrary, we should corporate closely and take back what we have lost. China is now Challenging order which is established by Western. If China fail, I hope India can carry on unfinished cause and make ASIA GREAT AGAIN.

伟大的历史和文化。印度拥有辉煌灿烂的历史和文化。它是“四大文明古国”之一。印度和中国有许多共同之处。我们都拥有灿烂的历史和文化，也都经历过被殖民统治的黑暗时期。西方列强欺压了我们好几个世纪。印度和中国不应该成为敌人，相反，我们应该紧密合作，夺回我们失去的东西。

中国现在正在挑战西方建立的秩序。如果中国失败了，我希望印度能够继续未竟的事业，让亚洲再次伟大起来。