Why Vietnam's Economy is in Danger from Trump's Tariffs

为何特朗普的关税让越南经济陷入危机

Trump's tariffs are insanely high, and they pose a severe threat to Vietnam's economy.

特朗普对越南加征的关税高得离谱，对越南经济构成了严重威胁。

以下是各国网友的评论：

chanelloski4547
It's very unlikely factories will move out of Vietnam into another lower-cost labor and tariff country as establishing manufacturing capacity especially electronics takes years. What's most likely to happen is lay-offs in those Vietnamese factories from a lower product demand due to higher consumer prices as a result of the tariffs.

工厂要从越南搬到另一个劳动力成本和关税更低的国家，这种可能性微乎其微。毕竟，建立制造业产能，尤其是电子产业的产能，需要耗费数年时间。最有可能的是，由于关税导致消费品价格上涨，产品需求降低，越南工厂会进行裁员。

Youtuber1-g1q
There are hundred other countries who needed factories and such; so it would be actually better if some move out from vietnam

还有上百个其他国家需要工厂之类的。要是有些工厂能从越南搬出去，可能会更好。

phucdo7413
moving supply chains are very hard. It took almost a decade to move some of China’s supply chain to Vietnam.

转移供应链困难重重。把中国的部分供应链转移到越南，差不多花了十年时间。

coatclothes9563
Đơn giản chuỗi cung ứng lao động lành nghề với sản lượng cao, nguyên vật liệu thuận tiện đã được thiết lập, chỉ có cách rời đến Mỹ với mức lương của người lao động gấp 13 lần hiện tại ở Việt Nam, như vậy cả Mỹ và Việt Nam đều thiệt hại

简单来说，越南已经建立起了技术娴熟、产量高的劳动力供应链，而且原材料供应便利。唯一的办法是搬到美国去，但美国的工人工资是越南工资的13倍，这样一来，美国和越南都会受到损害。

vanhocwong6689
You forget that as other countries (like Mexco) increase their exports to US, their surplus would increase and their tariff would also increase. Note, they calculate the tariff rate dependant on the surplus.

你忘了，当其他国家（比如墨西哥）增加对美国的出口时，它们的贸易顺差会增加，关税也会随之提高。要知道，关税税率是根据贸易顺差来计算的。

Globalspotlight-t2z
No amount of words can explain how heavy this feels!

千言万语都无法形容现在内心沉重的感觉！

mark12795
I know, for the US to of been getting taken advantage of for all these years, IT is a heavy weight off my shoulders. Now to see the weight go on other countries shoulders, is such a good feeling.

我知道，美国这些年来一直被占便宜，现在这种情况有所改变，我心里的一块大石头算是落了地。如今看到别的国家承担起这份压力，感觉可真好。

jye7027
@mark12795 taken advantage? does usa produces apparels, sportwears, handphone in USA for export?

 被占便宜？美国有生产服装、运动装和手机用于出口吗？

spcb77
Almost all famously branded rubber shoes are Made in Vietnam!

几乎所有知名品牌的胶鞋都是越南制造的！

nguyenthanhhai8541
It also affect gamer because Nintendo factory located in Vietnam and will be exported to America.

这也会影响到游戏玩家，毕竟任天堂在越南的工厂生产的产品是要出口到美国的。

malekzin4788
If a US company like Nike built a factory in Vietnam to be sold for US consumer, who is really making money?? Nike or Vietnam?

如果耐克这样的美国公司在越南建厂，产品卖给美国消费者，那到底谁才是真正赚钱的一方呢？是耐克，还是越南？

dainguyenduc9450
Về việc làm và chuỗi cung ứng thì Việt Nam hưởng lợi, còn về lợi nhuận thì Mỹ hưởng lợi

从就业和供应链方面来看，越南会受益；但从利润方面来说，美国会受益。

nguyenhoang9410
Well it a win win situation Vietnam have the technology and experience while us consumer can have cheaper rate products , Nike will make more money but Vietnam have tax and salary for worker . Truly right now if you compare some of the product I buy in Australia and buy from Vietnam it a completely different quality ( Vietnam clothes just better ) that is a goal after years of cooperation.

好吧，这是一种双赢的局面。越南获得了技术和经验，而美国消费者能买到价格更低的产品。耐克会赚更多的钱，而越南则能获得税收和给工人发工资。说真的，现在要是对比一下我在澳大利亚买的一些产品和从越南买的产品，质量完全不一样（越南的衣服就是更好），这是多年合作达成的成果。

Abhishek_Lonkar
Both. And I believe Vietnam being one of the first to make a deal might put them just a little in trump's good grace lol

双方都有赚。而且我觉得，越南作为首批达成协议的国家之一，可能会让特朗普对它稍微有那么点好感，哈哈。

anhbinbaccuc8850
Growing up in the 80s in Vietnam, believe me we were dirt poor but we survived, today 2025 and only 37% live in cities, meaning the rest still live on agricultures, during the pandemic people moved to the countryside and lived well. Plus unlike the 80s, now we have 5 millions Vietnamese overseas to aid their families. I see Americans line up for soups like the 1930s Depression and Vietnamese go to the countryside and grow rice and raise farm animals shall the world goes through a recession or another depression.

我是上世纪80年代在越南长大的，相信我，那时我们一贫如洗，但还是挺过来了。如今到了2025年，只有37%的人生活在城市里，其余的人仍然靠农业为生。在疫情期间，人们搬到农村，生活得也不错。而且，与80年代不同的是，现在有500万越南人在海外，他们可以资助自己的家人。要是世界遭遇经济衰退或另一场大萧条，美国人会像上世纪30年代大萧条时期那样排队领救济汤，而越南人则会回到农村去种水稻、饲养家畜。

KayleeNguyen-u6e
True. Americans are highly relying on imports and yet the dems dont see it yet. As for Vietnam,we are not afraid of recessions nor afraid of what would happen. Ahahahha

没错。美国人高度依赖进口，可民　主党人还没意识到这一点。至于我们越南既不害怕经济衰退，也不担心会发生什么事。哈哈哈。

tiffanyvang9814
Yes, Vietnam went through destroying wars, cruel embargo, but Vietnam survive and fastly built a 7% growth economy from the ash. Vietnam can survive 4 years, but Americans cannot suffer 46% higher prices for 4 years. America will collapse if Trump continues.

是的，越南经历过毁灭性的战争和残酷的禁运，还是挺了过来，并迅速从废墟中建立起了经济，增长率达7%。越南能够挺过4年，但美国人可受不了4年里物价上涨46%。如果特朗普继续这样下去，美国会崩溃。

anhbinbaccuc8850
@1012pear I'm talking about the worst scenarios for the "world" seeing how things impacting everyone, who are you thinking about when you speak? Vietnam and only Vietnam?

我在说的是对“世界”而言的最糟糕的情况，考虑到会对每个人造成影响。你说话的时候只想着越南吗？就只考虑越南吗？

HanTang-n7e
Agreement need reach what is and how to calculate Tariff? When Vietnam says Zero tariffs to America, under Trump's formula it means Zero import-export deficit to meet Zero tariffs.

越南表示可以对美国实行零关税，按照特朗普的公式，这意味着要实现进出口零逆差才能达到零关税。

trangnguyenmau2911
The problem here is that when the trade gaps decrease, will the US implement new tariffs based on this method of calculation? Will Trump's government update the tariffs list every year, every two years, or every three years? It seems to defy logic. Additionally, it becomes challenging for US companies to decide whether to continue manufacturing in Vietnam or move to another country with lower tariffs. They are uncertain about what the tariff changes will be in just a few years

这里的问题是，当贸易差距缩小后，美国会基于这种计算方法实施新的关税吗？特朗普政府会每年、每两年还是每三年更新一次关税清单呢？这似乎不符合逻辑。此外，美国公司要决定是继续在越南生产，还是搬到另一个关税更低的国家，这也变得很有挑战性。他们不确定在未来几年里关税会有怎样的变化。

hl954
There are many unknown factors for Vietnam to react to here. First of all, this is a blanket tariff policy - Trump imposes sanctions on every country, therefore, Americans may not have alternatives to get better deals than they do with Vietnamese products. Chance is, all the countries with competing products have similar tariff rates. The difference can be offset by many other factors, such as supply chain, business cluster, etc.
Keep in mind, Vietnam doesn't pay for these tariffs; American consumers do. The US certainly doesn't have a labor-intensive competitive advantage to compete in manufacturing. From what I see, Trump tries to play the game where he wants suppliers to compete with each other; however, I do think he did not think it through. He wants countries to bow down to negotiate for a better tariff deal, but that doesn't change much, if anything. So, should Vietnam react now? I think it should just go with the flow.

对越南来说，这里有许多未知因素需要应对。首先，这是一项全面的关税政策——特朗普对每个国家都实施了制裁，所以，美国人可能找不到比越南产品更好的替代品。很有可能，所有生产竞品的国家关税税率都差不多。这种差异可以被许多其他因素抵消，比如供应链、产业集群等等。

要记住，这些关税不是越南来支付，而是美国消费者支付。美国制造业肯定没有劳动密集型的竞争优势。在我看来，特朗普让供应商之间相互竞争；然而，我认为他没有深思熟虑。他想让各国低头，为了更好的关税协议进行谈判，但即便这样做了，也改变不了多少。那么，越南现在应该做出反应吗？我觉得顺其自然就好。

Harry-sh8jp
It is miss leading to say Vietnam and Cambodia export more to the US. The only thing those countries have are low labor to produce for big US company such as Nike. If those US companies stop manufacturing their products there, they have to move to different countries that are low labor to compete. Nike can’t compete with Adidas or other China company if they make their products in US.

说越南和柬埔寨对美国的出口更多，这是一种误导。这些国家所拥有的，只是为耐克这样的美国大公司提供廉价劳动力。如果停止在那里生产产品，美国公司就不得不搬到其他劳动力成本低的国家去竞争。如果耐克在美国生产产品，它就无法与阿迪达斯或其他中国公司竞争。

AprezaRenaldy
Trump's problem is not tariffs but trade deficit . So Vietnam will be forced to buy more products from America.

特朗普的问题不在于关税，而在于贸易逆差。所以，越南被迫从美国购买更多的产品。

abasgait5457
Vietnam as a former foe to the US should be ready for another market destinations for its exports…
Do not be too dependent on the sole US market…
Instead there are other destinations like Europe, African continent, South America, Asean countries, Russia, Australia and Middle East

作为美国曾经的对手，越南应该为其出口产品开拓其他的市场

不要过于依赖单一的美国市场

相反，还有其他的市场，比如欧洲、非洲大陆、南美洲、东盟国家、俄罗斯、澳大利亚和中东地区。

Bill82759
It’s not just the high tariffs they charge the U.S. it’s the non tariff costs like VAT that oftentimes gets passed right through to Vietnamese manufacturers making it impossible for the U.S. to compete. Trumps end game is to get these countries to lower their overall tariffs and non tariffs and allow more free trade. That will get them what Trump really wants - a 10% tariff across the board. They wouldn’t voluntarily come to the table so Trump is forcing them now and Vietnam was one of the first countries to now come to the table. Trump is no fool and to treat him as one is a huge mistake.

越南对美国征收的可不只是高关税，还有像增值税这样的非关税成本，而这些成本常常会直接转嫁给越南制造商，使得美国无法与之竞争。特朗普的最终目的是让这些国家降低总体关税和非关税成本，允许更多的自由贸易。这样就能实现特朗普真正想要的——全面征收10%的关税。特朗普现在正在强迫它们，而越南是首批来谈判的国家之一。特朗普可不是傻瓜

tonpham1097
Most American workers who have stock mutual funds have lost quite a bit. Soon they might become unemployed.

大多数持有股票共同基金的美国工人已经损失惨重。很快，他们可能就会失业。

Youtuber1-g1q
It is actually beneficial to the world; move factories to other countries to spread the development

实际上，把工厂搬到其他国家，分散开来，这对世界是有益的。

quanngang653
Vietnam is not in danger, this is the time for Vietnam to demonstrate its diplomatic negotiating ability. Every business when investing looks at the long-term benefits of the investment location, after this incident, they will look at Vietnam with different eyes. Worthy of the stature of an invincible investment center, production center in Asia

越南并没有陷入危险，现在正是越南展示外交谈判能力的时候。每个企业在投资时都会考虑投资地点的长期利益，在这件事情之后，他们会以不同的眼光看待越南。越南无愧于成为亚洲无敌的投资中心和生产中心的地位。

suryamitra7397
It is not "vietnamese" companies that make the smartphones and ssd sticks. they could not make bicycles on their own. It is Apple and HP and Micron that make the products in Vietnam. Companies don't wait for gradual lifting of tariffs. They will take the loss in transferring the factories to another location, even to the US and once these factories are gone they are gone. They are not coming back

制造智能手机和固态硬盘的不是“越南”公司。他们自己连自行车都造不出来。是苹果、惠普和镁光等公司在越南生产这些产品。企业不会等着关税逐步降低。他们会承受将工厂转移到其他地方（甚至是美国）所带来的损失，而且一旦这些工厂搬走了，就不会再回来了。

anhhai6252
they make Electric cars Vinfast. Bicycles don't sell well nowadays so why make bicycles ?

他们制造了Vinfast电动汽车。如今自行车卖得不好，那为什么还要制造自行车呢？

Teedeeus
America leads when the world’s in sync. But when things fall apart, the U.S. ends up dancing alone

世界协调发展时，美国处于领先地位。但当形势分崩离析时，美国最终只能独自起舞。

lehang8911
All, 90 % of VN exports are US, China Corp own, and using Cheap VN labors.
90% of VN export to China is agricultural products.

总的来说，越南90%的出口产品是由美国、中国的公司所拥有的，使用了越南的廉价劳动力。

越南对中国90%的出口产品是农产品。

DannyLy-y1j
Vietnam could buy a few F47s to lower its trade surpass with the US

越南可以购买几架F47战机，以此来降低对美国的贸易顺差。

hungjizz
Usa is not the only market for Nike, Addidas, etc. Its a big chunk but there are still other economies that these get exported to.

美国不是耐克、阿迪达斯等品牌的唯一市场。美国市场占比很大，但这些品牌的产品仍有其他出口市场

bmanpura
They have a lot of other nations as their clientele too, Japan and China being the two big one. I'm curious how this will play out

它们也有很多其他客户，日本和中国就是两个大客户。我很好奇事情会如何发展。

KoaNguyen12
In the years 1945 we wanted to be friends with the US, not war or economic comparison with them. Some people will laugh because Vietnam depends economically.

在1945年的时候，我们想和美国做朋友，而不是与他们发生战争或者进行经济上的竞争。有些人嘲笑越南经济依赖他国。

bobhangin4445
Investors will flock to Philippines in the future. USA impose 17% tariff to the Philippines. Investors can take more profit because of this.

未来，投资者会纷纷涌向菲律宾。美国对菲律宾征收17%的关税，投资者们能够获取更多的利润。

willyd.7307
Dialog is good... Better than war.

对话交流是好的，总比战争要好。

randellt
I am very thankful to Vietnam for the quality products they put out. I never worry if I see a "Made in Vietnam" on an item I purchase. However, I now see the reason Trump hit Vietnam so hard was the China factor. I hope this is resolved swiftly and the wonderful people of Vietnam remain resilient.

我非常感谢越南生产出优质产品。每当我购买的商品上标有“越南制造”时，我从不担心质量不好。然而，我现在明白了特朗普如此严厉地针对越南的原因是中国因素。我希望这个问题能迅速得到解决，也希望越南优秀的人民能继续保持坚韧不拔的精神。

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