中美贸易战会打多久，哪一方会率先做出让步

How long will the trade war between the US and China last? Which of the two giants will blink first?

中美贸易战会打多久，哪一方会率先做出让步退缩呢？

以下是Quora读者的评论：

Smitaj

Both countries are proud. They will not blink. The usual USA procedure of escalate, Escalate and ESCALATE cannot lead to any good outcome.

The idea is that if it is possible for the USA to crush China then that country would no longer be a trade competitor. But the alternative is just as possible.

Trump has almost four years of this term left. And that term may not end. There is no guarantee that he would submit to a fair or proper election.

两国都很有骨气，都不会退缩。美国一贯那种不断升级、升级、再升级的做法不会带来任何好结果。

美国的想法是如果能够击垮中国，那么中国就不再是它的贸易竞争对手了。但另一种情况同样有可能出现。

特朗普这一任期还剩将近四年时间。而且这一任期或许不会正常结束。无法保证他会接受一场公平合理的选举结果。

The mid terms give some chance. If the PEOPLE of the USA are horrified then in 18 months at the midterm they could change the balance in congress.

If they support the war then we are back to the first two sentences. No one is going to blink. But the consequences would be dire for at least one of these two countries. With others dragged into it along the way.

Having had two WORLD wars and knowing the destruction that this idea caused no one should want to keep escalating. It hasn’t achieved anything worth while in the past.

中期选举带来了一些机会。如果美国民众感到恐慌，那么在18个月后的中期选举中，他们就有可能改变国会的权力平衡。

如果他们支持这场贸易战争，那我们又回到最初的两句话上了。没人会退缩。但至少对这两个国家中的一个来说，后果将是极其严重的。而且还会把其他国家也拖进来。

经历了两次世界大战，并且深知战争所带来的破坏，没有人应该希望局势不断升级。在过去，不断升级也没有带来任何有价值的成果。

Michael X

First, the trade war isn't just between the US and China. It is a multilateral trade war. I would even argue that, the US and China might not even on the opposite side. Here is the iPhone components by origin, the iphone had cut all Chinese components out as much as possible, however the 1000 prices tag per phone are recorded as trade deficit for the US to China. Chinese components made up 0.8% percent of the profits. I am not even gonna talk about how much Apple made from the Chinese market. Therefore it doesn't has much to lose. The moment they realize they couldn't take each other down, they gonna eat a third party for dinner.

Second, It is not about blinking, China had prepared cutting off trade completely with the US, Trump haven't. The stock market doesn't even allow the US to do so. Think how much Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing and so on are going to tank once they lose the Chinese market and got their supply chain messed up. The life saving, pensions, social security of the Americans are all in the stock market. Trump will have to kneel if he insist to keep attacking China.

首先，这场贸易战不只是中美之间的。它是一场多边贸易战。我甚至认为，美国和中国可能压根就不处于对立面。以下是苹果手机按产地划分的零部件情况，苹果手机已尽可能地剔除了中国生产的零部件，然而每部手机1000美元的标价却被记录为美国对中国的贸易逆差。中国零部件仅占利润的0.8%。我甚至都还没说苹果公司从中国市场赚了多少钱呢。所以，中国并没有太多可失去的东西。一旦他们意识到无法击垮对方，他们就会把第三方当作牺牲品。

其次，这并非是退缩的问题。中国已经做好了与美国完全切断贸易往来的准备，而特朗普却没有。美国股市甚至都不允许美国这么做。想想看，一旦苹果、特斯拉、亚马逊、微软、波音等公司失去中国市场，供应链也陷入混乱，它们的股价会暴跌到什么程度。美国人的救命钱、养老金、社会保障金可都投在了股市里。如果特朗普坚持继续攻击中国，他将不得不低头。

Christopher R. Zell

The US will compromise or blink first. Trump is a lame duck and faces Congress elections with a slim majority in about a year and a half. He seems to be sort of ADHD and deeply impatient - that’s no way to conduct negotiations.

The “experts” - military leaders, Ph.D academics and economists were overwhelmingly wrong about Russia - whose currency is presently the best performing on earth. They aren’t losing and their economy didn’t collapse. The US was defeated by an irregular militia of goat herders and pedophiles in Afghanistan after the longest war in US history. It is said that 6 “intelligence” agencies failed to see the collapse of the government as they headed to the airport.

美国会首先妥协或退缩。特朗普已是“跛脚鸭”总统（任期将满、权力受限），大约一年半后他就要面临国会选举，而目前他仅以微弱优势掌控局面。他似乎有点像是患有注意力缺陷多动障碍，极度缺乏耐心——这样可没法进行谈判。

那些“专家”们，包括军事将领、学术博士和经济学家，在对俄罗斯的判断上大错特错——俄罗斯的货币目前是全球表现最佳的。俄罗斯并没有失败，其经济也没有崩溃。美国在经历了其历史上最长的一场战争后，竟被阿富汗一群由牧羊人组成的非正规民兵组织以及一些有恋童癖的人打败。据说，有六个“情报”机构在局势发展到政府倒台（他们逃向机场）的时候都没能预料到这一结果。

How do these things happen? Because publicly lying is OK. Because narratives are agreed to and anyone who feels differently gets shunned. Because reforms don’t happen or even get suggested.

It will take many years to rebuild mining (rare earths) and factories - if the skilled workers can even be found - while the US racks up collossal debts and pushes nations away from using the dollar.

这些事情怎么会发生呢？因为公然说谎被认为是可以接受的。因为人们达成了某种既定的说法，而任何有不同意见的人都会遭到排挤。还因为改革根本没有发生，甚至连被提出来的机会都没有。

要重建采矿业（稀土产业）和工厂需要很多年时间——即便能找到熟练工人的话。与此同时，美国却在不断累积巨额债务，还迫使其他国家不再使用美元。

Jeff Tipton

Haven't you been paying attention? Trump has already blinked. He's paused and delayed multiple times. Trump is pretty clear that he wants to negotiate with other countries and reach some kind of a “deal”.

Not even Trump could tell you what such a deal would look like. But it is clear China is in a position of strength and won't make a deal unless it benefits them. Other countries don't want to make any kind of a deal, but they're not in as strong of a position as China is.

All of these countries would be much better off if they ignored Trump, didn't try to negotiate with him, slapped on reciprocal tariffs, dumped any US Treasuries they might be holding, and told him to go fuck himself. It would make your head swim how fast Trump would cave in at that point.

你难道一直没留意吗？特朗普已经退缩了。他已经多次暂停和推迟相关政策。特朗普很明确地表示他想和其他国家谈判，并达成某种“协议”。

可就连特朗普自己也说不清楚这样的协议会是什么样子。但很明显，中国处于优势地位，而且除非协议对自己有利，否则是不会达成协议的。其他国家也不想达成任何形式的协议，不过它们的立场可不像中国那么强硬。

如果所有这些国家都不理会特朗普，不尝试和他谈判，实施对等关税，抛售它们可能持有的美国国债，然后让特朗普哪儿凉快哪儿待着去，那这些国家的处境会好得多。到那时，特朗普服软的速度之快会让你大吃一惊。

Lisa Huffman

since it is so highly dependent on America as it is pretty well-known we were the primary, if not sole country directly responsible for uplifting them from poverty, and it’s already obvious their economy was having trouble because they no longer could rely on us continuing to export manufacturing jobs, since we already shipped the major ones all over. However, they still obviously rely on the American consumers to keep their economy stable, because they need Americans to continue to purchase the products from them that we used to purchase domestically. They were so reliant on our economy, they even pegged their yuan on the USD and refused to allow their currency to float, to always be able to undercut US prices.

众所周知，美国即便不是唯一也是最主要的一个直接让中国摆脱贫困的国家，而且很明显中国经济已经面临困境，他们不能再依赖美国继续向其输出制造业岗位了，毕竟美国已经把大部分的制造业岗位转移到其他地方了。

然而，显然中国仍依赖美国消费者来维持其经济稳定，他们需要美国人继续购买那些原本美国国内生产而现在从中国购买的产品。

中国过去如此依赖美国经济，甚至将人民币与美元挂钩，并且拒绝让人民币自由浮动，就是为了能一直以低于美国产品的价格销售。

So, in a way, maybe we shouldn’t want them to “blink first,” as the longer they try to play paper tiger to preserve their pride, the worse off they will be at the end of it, and depending on how proud they want to be, we could totally sink it. America being capitalist, and having everything we need here, and having our entrepreneurial spirit and those always willing to fill any consumer product voids, can easily replace the products here at home, or we can buy them elsewhere. But where’s China going to find another country in the world with over 340 million people who have a per capita GDP with over $82k per person, and tons of disposable income?

所以，从某种程度上说，也许我们不应该期望他们“先退缩”，他们越是虚张声势以维护自身颜面，最终的处境就会越糟糕。而且根据他们想要维护颜面的程度，我们完全有可能搞垮中国经济。美国是zb主义国家，拥有我们所需要的一切，而且我们有创业精神，总有人愿意填补消费品领域的空白，可以很容易地在国内生产替代产品，或者从其他地方购买。但是，中国又能到哪里去找另一个拥有超过3.4亿人口，人均国内生产总值超过8.2万美元且拥有大量可支配收入的国家呢？

They can’t. America is the richest per capita GDP country with the largest population in the world. That translates into enormous consumer purchasing power that China relies on to make their economy function. The fact remains, they will have nobody else who can fill the US consumer void, if we stop buying their stuff, and they would likely collapse before they had a chance to blink.

And I think it should be pointed out that China has had predatory tariffs in effect against the USA since we opened up trade with them again in the 70s and now that it’s been made clear they have had goals all along to take advantage of us as long as they could to surpass us so they can exercise world dominance under their regime, we are at a critical point where we must prevent that from happening.

他们找不到。美国是世界上人均GDP最高且人口众多的国家。我们有强大的消费者购买力，而中国依赖这种购买力来维持其经济运转。事实是，如果我们停止购买中国产品，中国将找不到其他人来填补美国消费者留下的空缺

而且我认为应该指出的是，自从上世纪70年代美国再次与中国开展贸易以来，中国就一直对美国实施关税。如今已经很清楚，中国一直以来都有目标，那就是尽可能地利用美国来超越美国，以便实现对世界的统治。我们正处于一个关键时刻，必须阻止这种情况发生。

Mike Lewis

The US will blink first. Trump will crumble when everything from China costs more than twice as much if you can get it at all. The only thing saving his hide right now is that tariffs are not being collected due to the US Customs having technical difflculties and the shipments from China taking 30 to 40 days. Once that glitch is fixed and the tariffed goods finally arrive with the prices more than doubled, there will a lot of pressure on him to back down.

美国会首先退缩。如果从中国进口的商品即便能在其他地方买到，价格也会是原来的两倍多，特朗普届时就会崩溃。

目前唯一能让他暂时躲过一劫的是，由于美国海关存在技术难题，而且从中国发货需要30到40天，所以关税暂时还没有开始征收。

一旦这个问题得到解决，那些被征收关税的商品最终到货，价格也比原来翻了一倍多，那时候他就会面临巨大的压力，不得不做出让步。

Kuan Yu

US will blink first. The American voters voted for cheaper grocery prices not for a trade war and massive inflation and expensive groceries.

美国会首先退缩。美国选民投票支持的是希望能买到价格更低的食品杂货，而不是一场贸易战、严重的通货膨胀以及昂贵的食品杂货。

John

If China threatens to dump all their American Bonds and Frump doesn’t see this as “he’s wng” then America will either blink or fold.

如果中国威胁要抛售持有的所有美国国债，那么美国要么会退缩，要么就会屈服。

Michael Lim

Of course it's China who would blink and fallout first.

The US must continue and push on harder…. China will not outlast you no matter what they sanction or cut the US off.

Afterall, anything above 25% is already a sign US has decided to decouple totally with China. So nothing to do with China and nothing from china anymore, period.

The king knows how strong the US is. So US will win. MAGA !!!! Viva MAGA !!!!

The sooner and stronger US pushes relentlessly, sooner this trade war will be over.

当然会是中国先退缩并出局。

美国必须继续推进且加大力度，无论中国实施何种制裁或者与美国切断往来，中国都无法比美国坚持得更久。

毕竟，关税超过25%，已经表明美国决定与中国彻底脱钩。所以，再也和中国没有关系，也不再要任何来自中国的东西，就是这样。

有人觉得美国清楚自身实力有多强大。所以美国会赢。让美国再次伟大！“让美国再次伟大”万岁！

美国施压得越快、越坚决，这场贸易战就会结束得越早。

En Li

You meant the tariff war?

You betokened the “war of tariffs” which some bum chump somewhere has wantonly waged against this entire planet?

And, you did semaphore the tariffing cutthroat fisticuffs which that hysterically geriatric dotard is cutting his own throat having with China right now?

Correct?

Well, go get a laser pen made in Dongguan, China and burn this on either of your cheeks:

In any Chinese dictionary of economics, politics, economic politics, politic economics, geoeconomics or geopolitics, never has there been the entry of “blink” found ever.

To say nothing of “blink first”!

你说的是关税战吗？

你指的是某个不知天高地厚的蠢货在某个地方肆意对整个世界发动的那场“关税战”吗？

还有，你说的是那个歇斯底里、老糊涂的家伙现在正与中国进行的这种自毁长城的关税激烈对抗吗？

对吗？

那好，去拿一支中国制造的激光笔，然后在你自己的任一边脸颊上刻下这些话：

在中国任何一本关于经济学、政治学、经济政治学、政治经济学、地缘经济学或地缘政治学的词典里，永远都找不到“退缩”这个词。

更别提“先退缩”了！

所以，懂了吗？

So, get it?

No?

Too far beyond the pen of your brain?